Conscription in Britain?

Hi all,

Before I continue, I would like to state that I don't think conscription is on the horizon. I do, however, think that stories like this are introduced to the public to gather data on their reaction, which in turns informs and influences future policy - which is rather concerning in itself.

The last time Britain experienced conscription was during the Second World War - post war Britain had National Service which was a direct consequence of the War. And so, I thought it might be an interesting discussion here - if we are careful.

I've been interested to see the pushback thats come from this. Nationalists, who would have once been the first to enlist, are vehemently opposed to the idea, the Gen Z'ers are opposed, so too, it seems are the immigrant population.

It's been interesting because they have all stated different, yet equally valid opinions for their opposition.

I'd like people to share their thoughts - carefully, as this thread has the potential to spiral out of control quickly.

Kind regards
Emps

 

On reflection, I think I might have wasted my time - lets see!

 

I'll bite.

On 15 September 2016 I did take part in a syndicate discussion on a British Army Staff Ride. We were in the High Wood CWC surrounded by the graves of 2,000 men,. The topic under discussion: could our society cope with this level of casualties? If there was a genuine war of national survival, such as WW2, people would rally around and volunteer. They did over the Falklands.

I am not sure the military thinks we need a mass army as we raised in the world wars. But the experience of Ukraine suggests otherwise.

Every generation wonders whether the young people of today are willing to risk their lives,... etc,

They have enough problems recruiting reserves for the services as it is. And the Reserves are paid. Why does anyone think people would volunteer without pay?

 

The latest conversation around conscription centres on a belief that there is a likelihood of war with Russia (at some point).

I have to be careful about what I say, lest the thread be locked - but I think the UK government will reap what it has sown with regards to the recruitment / conscription of young British men (still the largest demographic).

 

Numbers for Ukraine vary between 500,000 (of which 50% active) to 1,000,000(ish - similar ratio).

I understand they relied heavily on volunteers until recently, when they started to struggle despite facing an existential threat. As their economy is vastly different from the UK's, it is difficult to draw any lessons from the conscription approach they introduced.

Russia is sustaining its operations despite heavy casualties without conscription, but does so by relying on recruitment amongst disadvantaged minorities.

I think neither of the countries offers any lessons.

As for 'rallying around the flag', sure we have seen BoJo use his £1m/year column to loudly announce he would happily volunteer, and I suspect similar cases would express similar feelings. Those feelings would last until there is a prospect of real danger for the majority of them.

Structurally, the forces aren't set up for conscription, society doesn't want it, so unless Russia gets past Germany, I doubt there is any chance of it happening outside the pages of the right-wing press.

All the best

Andreas

 

On a thread like this you do get people angling their political bent.

The whole thing at the moment is a “What If”.
It is easy to state with bravado that you will sign up,equally it is easy to state you wont sign up.
Until it becomes a reality and the socials relay the horrors of war on your doorstep perhaps a change of mind will take place.
This country is still a top notch place and as with all countries there are haves and have nots. At least you can be what you want and say what you want.
I would hope that the persons who decided they would not sign up in the event of a war do not live to regret it when all their thoughts and freedom are removed.


Don't look where you have been look where you are going.

 

I think thats the problem - a great deal of people prefer where we have been.

In any case, I'm not Pommie so it doesn't really matter!

 

Although not directly about conscription, I was struck by how during the recent covid lockdowns most folks accepted and complied with the regulations in a similar way to wartime even if in extreme cases it meant they were not able to see loved ones in their last stages of life. This impressed me that the majority saw the common benefit to the whole country.

 

There's a bit of "plus ça change" about all this. Britain has always had a small army and has always struggled to recruit for its forces in peacetime - that's why there were press gangs for the Navy, and large parts of the army were made up of highland Scots and rural Irishmen.

I don't see the need for conscription at the moment, as the current Ukraine crisis is akin to Hitler invading Poland in 1939 and then getting bogged down for two years after conquering a small sliver of territory. Both Russia and China have extremely low fertility rates, so their medium to long term war-making capabilities are going to be severely constricted. The current hoo-ha just seems to be one of those media flaps that come around every so often, like the return of capital punishment.

As for how people would respond if conscription were introduced, it would depend on circumstances. I think a genuine existential threat would have the desired bolstering effect, but if it was for the usual quasi-imperial interventionism then they won't get many takers.

 

I would add to the mix the publication of two military history books by leading authors, each issuing a "clarion call" to our elected politicians to the threat posed and the decline of the army - in particular.

The books being: 'Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1943 to Ukraine' by David Petraeus (ex-US Army plus) and (Baron) Andrew Roberts. The second is 'Victory to Defeat: The British Army 1918-1940' by (ex-General & CGS) Richard Dannatt and (Dr.) Robert Lyman.

The timing I expect reflects unease in what the November 2024 US Presidential election will produce, mainly due to one candidate's dislike of being a NATO member. Even The Guardian had an opinion piece on the possible impact on 'The Special Relationship'.

 

My feeling is that a war with Russia would be very short and radioactive.

If, however, you think that a NATO/Russia war would remain conventional then you need to look at the UK role within the alliance. That role has never been to provide a large continental style army. The UK contributes a different set of assets.

So no, I don't think there is any chance of conscription as we know it.

That said, I think there is a case for an expansion of the reserve forces just to get a larger proportion of the population inculcated with modern military skills.

 

Perhaps the problem is that lots of people have seen where we're going and they aren't exactly enamoured with it. It might be over-egging the pudding a bit, but at what point will there be more to fight against than for?

It would be interesting to know whether we have the industrial capacity to make-up the accrlerated turn-over of war stocks. Or are we just clearing depots for a few more housing estates?

 

That they are going to allow new steel production to close at Port Talbot demonstrates the lack of foresight at the political level. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the UK Government are expecting to continue importing steel from China in a war against China.

 

Laughs in Rough gas storage.

All the best

Andreas