Ukraine War. 2022-

One can only admire the Russian instinct for good satire:
At Telegram, they passed around images of the Turkish Leos being destroyed in Syria as visual confirmation.
The wreck will surely be exhibited next to the already destroyed Bradleys and the remains of the 48 destroyed HIMARS

If so many people didn't die in this epic clusterf*ck, it would almost be funny

 

captured Leo at Bakhmut/Artemovsk (sources: trust me bro, magic power of photoshop)

This picture is actually from a manoeuvre accident in 2016. (Original without the Flag)
At least there is no longer Syrian desert in the background - a clear improvement in terms of quality

 

The reports of Ukrainian drones entering deep into Russia are a little concerning. Any strike on Russian soil will surely lead to an escalation in the conflict.

 

For Ukraine, it can hardly escalate much more

Fun fact: Germany buys crude oil from Kazakhstan.
This is transported through pipeline, for which Russia charges transit fees.
Some of these fees are in turn transferred to Ukraine because this pipeline runs through its territory
(which is also the case for any gas deliveries since February 2022 until now [Hungary]).
(and I, as a professional cynic, am pleased to see my world view impressively confirmed once again by such nice details).

As long as Russia continues to collect money from this, its insistent "We have nuclear weapons" should
be regarded as domestic political theatre thunder.

 

Escalate to what level? Random terror bombing of Ukraine? Random murder of Ukrainians, wholesale destruction and systematic child abduction? All out war on Ukraine across the whole front? Shock assaults on Kyiv through Belarus?

All the best

Andreas

 

A bit theatrical Andreas. My concern is the conflict escalating to a point where we see direct action from NATO.

If Ukraine use technology supplied by the West to attack infrastructure on Russian soil there is likely to be a reaction.

The West is fighting a proxy war against a nuclear power, we shouldn't forget that.

 

I fully understand your concerns an escalation of this conflict but right now it's being contained in, to the detriment of its people, in Ukraine. Putin, like most autocrats is a bully who will try and take what he wants by using threats and bluster to instill fear in his opponents and had/should he succeed in his invasion of a foreign state would that threat go away, I don't think so. You only need to look back to Neville Chamberlain to see how appeasement works with these people. After all the punishment and destruction Ukraine has suffered at the hands of the RA military I don't think they will have any qualms about striking back at russian targets.

As the fighting and bombings has been happening on Ukraine land, now that they have the ability to hit russian targets the war might be getting a bit too close for the regular Ivan and might just change their view of Putin's "Special Operation".

 

That's not even a theoretical concern for me, and I don't think it's a serious worry. NATO didn't intervene when the Russians slaughtered people wholesale in Mariupol or when they in early December undertook attacks on the Ukrainian heating system, with very severe population-wide risks. They aren't going to start now.

Right now it appears that there is zero evidence of that happening, and if it does, nothing will change in Russia's approach. They aren't going to attack Estonia or nuke Berlin because the Ukrainians decide to HIMARS a fuel depot in Belgorod.

Errr, no. The West is not doing that, Russian propaganda notwithstanding. Russia decided to illegally invade a neighbouring country in 2014 because it didn't like its politics. In 2022 they doubled down on this. Now they're losing, because they suck. There is no 'proxy' war anywhere outside the Russian propaganda space. The French weren't fighting a proxy war against the UK when they delivered Super Etendards and Exocets to Argentina.

The idea that Russia can do whatever it likes to Ukraine, but that Ukraine must tippy-toe around Russia because 'escalation' is straight out of the Russian playbook. That's what they would like. I suggest on the contrary that the best way to get the Russians to seriously consider alternative approaches is for the Ukrainians to blow up as much stuff as possible in Russia, while avoiding civilian Russian casualties.

All the best

Andreas

 

i) Yup
ii) Easily forgotten, but right now Ukraine is occupying large swathes of what Russia considers to be 'Russia' in Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples' Republics (or whatever they were called on annexation), and is on a regular basis bombing and otherwise blowing up other areas of Russia in these newly-acquired 'Russian' territories, including killing 'Russian' civilians.

All the best

Andreas

 

What a preposterous excuse to ignore a potential disaster in the making. If I wanted this, I could read a press release written by someone at a government agency, war-profiteering factory, or war-profiteering international bank.

Escalation is nothing to worry about?

Obviously, you know nothing about the post-World War II fighting in French Indochina and later, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand. What started as a skirmish in Saigon swelled to a terrible conflagration that killed millions of people.

Oh, and by the way, fifty years ago the U.S. puppet government in Saigon received about 350 M48 Patton tanks and 200 Northrup F-5 jet fighters from America and its allies. Which did nothing at all to prevent the defeat and dissolution of South Vietnam.

 

Correct me if I’m wrong but surely the most serious escalation was the 24 Feb 22 Russian invasion of Ukraine in flagrant breach of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which required the signatories to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine and refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine.

 

Most people, with the apparent exception of Anatolyi Lieven at the Grauniad, would put the date of the breach of the Memorandum to 27 February 2014, when the Russians illegally took over Crimea. 24-2-22 then marked the serious and utterly unprovoked escalation, as you note.

All the best

Andreas

 

Talking about escalation:
Strong explosion and subsequent fires registered in Kolomna (80km SW Moscow). At the moment it is not clear whether another cigarette was carelessly thrown away or whether one of the UAF's souped-up model planes was responsible, one of which crashed in the region yesterday.
UKRJET UJ-22 (Airborne)
It is quite possible that the UAF wants to use such pinprick attacks to force Russian air defences to secure the strategic hinterland - which in turn would thin out Russian AA capabilities on the front lines

 

Looks like the fat lady is taking a deep breath after putting on her make-up. The ZSU is dropping bridges into Bakhmut.


All the best

Andreas

 

Withdrawal from east of Bakhmutske River now confirmed it seems. Location of the two bridges below. Not as bad as I first thought, but they are clearly concerned about the northern pincer.

All the best

Andreas

 

Armoured transporter with no firepower. Nice, and no probs tactically as the Ruzzkis are totally not lacking in infantry numbers to make up for the vehicle not bringing any cannons or support weapons and... oh, wait...

All the best

Andreas