Ukraine War. 2022-

Discussion in 'Postwar' started by CL1, Feb 26, 2022.

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  1. ltdan

    ltdan Nietenzähler

    At present, current land operations are largely limited to local skirmishes and artillery duels:
    The autumn rasputitza is in full bloom, beyond paved roads the choice is between mud and slush, both knee-deep
    Looking at the current casualty statistics, I am struck by the fact that Russian 3-day personnel losses are currently over three times the previous "normal".
    It seems that the freshly drafted "mobiks" are being worn out as cannon fodder, while the remnants of higher-grade units are digging themselves into suitable winter quarters.


    In the shadow of ongoing operations, drone warfare and the russian missile campaign, Ukraine is in the process of regenerating its virtually wiped-out maritime forces:

    1 x Ada-class ASW corvette ("Hetman Ivan Mazepa") (T)

    2 x Sandown-class mine hunters ("Chernihiv " + "Cherkasy") (GB)

    2 x 35-foot, small-unit riverine craft; (US)
    6 x 40-foot Metal Shark "Defiant" maritime combat craft; (US)
    10 x 34-foot, "Dauntless" Sea Ark patrol boats. (US)

    It is unclear what will happen with these:
    15-20 x Ocea FPB98 Mark 1 multirole Fast Patrol Boat (F)*.
    The order (like the Ada-class corvette) has already been placed in 2019. Currently, two units have been completed, but are still in the possession of the shipyard.

    Add to this the land-based "Harpoon" systems and the TB-2 drones, and the UA Navy will be the first branch of the armed forces to have virtually all its essential units converted to Western standards.
     
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  2. CL1

    CL1 116th LAA and 92nd (Loyals) LAA,Royal Artillery

    The Spectator article this week
    Ukraine a testing ground for modern weapons
     
  3. davidbfpo

    davidbfpo Patron Patron

  4. ltdan

    ltdan Nietenzähler

    Kherson bridgehead:
    The important Snihurivka junction captured by UAF
    RA blows up lots of bridges
    Russian Deputy Governor Strenusov has died in an accident

    It is likely that the bridgehead will be evacuated for good
     
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  5. 4jonboy

    4jonboy Daughter of a 56 Recce

  6. ltdan

    ltdan Nietenzähler

    There are growing indications that a Berezina 2.0 is in the offing at Kherson:
    Apparently, the official cautious advance of the UAF was a feint, their forces are advancing everywhere very fast and the RA crossing points on the Dnieper are under constant artillery fire....
     
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  7. TTH

    TTH Senior Member

    That would be Berezina 3:0. Berezina 2:0 was in the summer of 1944 (HG Mitte).
     
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  8. ltdan

    ltdan Nietenzähler

    Granted. But it is better known in connection with the Corsican.
    Bagration was in a different league after all.... at least as of today
    It will probably take another 2-3 days until the situation W of the Dnieper is clearer.
     
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  9. ltdan

    ltdan Nietenzähler

    Ant.jpg
    Antonovsky Bridge 11.11.2022
     
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  10. davidbfpo

    davidbfpo Patron Patron

    For possibly the first time Western reporting, with a significant input by the Ukraine, has referred to a concern that this withdrawal is a trap. Maskirovka is the Russian name for:
    From: Russian military deception - Wikipedia and How Russia outfoxes its enemies

    Since the senior Ukrainian generals would be trained in this, I wonder how significant a factor this is for both sides.
     
  11. ltdan

    ltdan Nietenzähler

    There is a small problem with the Russian Criminal Code in the Russian media at the moment:

    If you approve of the withdrawal from Kherson, you violate Article 280.1: "Public calls to carry out actions aimed at violating the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation through the mass media".

    If you criticise the withdrawal from Kherson, you violate Article 280.3: "Public actions aimed at discrediting the Russian armed forces".

    Both are considered criminal offences.
    (Not having an opinion on this is considered unpatriotic and suspicious)

    RESPECT! The German bureaucracy could not have thought this up better :lol::lol::lol:
     
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  12. TTH

    TTH Senior Member

    Kherson is now back in Ukrainian hands. That is nice, but the question is: were the Ukrainians able to destroy a significant portion of the Russian forces as well?
     
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  13. davidbfpo

    davidbfpo Patron Patron

    From my armchair it is unlikely 'a significant portion of the Russian forces' were destroyed physically. It is the impact on morale that is most likely more important today. For a Russian soldier they have left part of newly claimed Russia and the Ukraine has liberated a large city - unclear so far how many residents left with the Russians. It also removes the "blot" on how Kherson was so easily taken originally.
     
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  14. Andsco

    Andsco Well-Known Member

    Technically then, shouldn't every russian be in prison
     
  15. ltdan

    ltdan Nietenzähler

    No, what is decisive are the passages "in the mass media" respectively "public actions".

    And now for something completely different in the spirit of "Britannia rules the waves"
    Zelensky is currently organising a crowdfunding for a special armada:
    Ukraine Launches Crowd Funding Drive for $250K Naval Drones - USNI News
    technical details:
    H I Sutton - Covert Shores

    Could soon become very uncomfortable in Sevastopol...:sailor:
     
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  16. davidbfpo

    davidbfpo Patron Patron

  17. von Poop

    von Poop Adaministrator Admin

    Il Papa seems to be having terrible trouble identifying who these mystery mercenaries might be.
    Funny old world. :unsure:

    Screenshot_20221113-121205.png
     
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  18. ltdan

    ltdan Nietenzähler

    Well....
    001.jpg
     
  19. ltdan

    ltdan Nietenzähler

    I am increasingly reading some speculation about a tacit tit for tat agreement regarding the withdrawal behind the Dnieper:
    Ukraine has pictures of celebrating citizens, Russia an organised retreat to show for it
    Instead of those of epic orgies of destruction on both sides....
     
  20. davidbfpo

    davidbfpo Patron Patron

    Two Twitter threads available to read. First, Australian retired general Mick Ryan, on an issue few appear to have thought through: industrial mobilization. He starts with:
    Link: Thread by @WarintheFuture on Thread Reader App

    Second, former British Army officer Mike Martin:
    I note the Ukrainians have landed over the river already!
    Link: Thread by @ThreshedThought on Thread Reader App
     
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