Over in AHF, Andreas stated that Enigma "gave Middle East Command the timing of the planned German assault on Tobruk". I've only found evidence of vague hints but nothing concrete re timing. Have I missed something obvious? Cheers Tom
You did miss something obvious. http://rommelsriposte.com/2008/12/14/istg-3-in-north-africa/ http://rommelsriposte.com/2009/06/25/some-more-on-i-stg3-in-north-africa/ Well obvious to me anyway. All the best Andreas
Andreas, Thanks for the reply. I've looked at the interesting posts (the picture of the decrypt appears to have dropped off though) but I can't see that they provide evidence that the British knew the exact "timing" of the planned attack on Tobruk (by which I mean date!). I'm not saying that there weren't signs that the attack was due in November, just that Ultra didn't give the exact details. The way I see it, British intelligence was hedging its bets in autumn 1941; for example, in early September Shearer noted 'definite, though imprecise, indications that the enemy is preparing to attack Tobruk'. By 27 September, a flood of Ultra intercepts apparently led the JIC to warn that an attack on Tobruk was imminent but by 17 Nov GSI was still only saying that there were 'strong indications that the enemy intends a major attack on Tobruk in the not so distant future'. None of which, to me, supports later claims by the British that they carefully delayed Crusader until just before the planned German attack on Tobruk (sheer coincidence) - after all the decison to attack on 18 Nov was made in late October/early November? Cheers, Tom
Hi Tom Well those claims are in my view definitely wrong. The delays for CRUSADER were due to the axle clusterfcuk with the Crusaders of 22 Armoured Brigade, and the lack of transport for 1 South African Division, as well as numerous minor things. There was no purposeful plan, and in the end they got lucky that the Axis was even more delayed due to the emerging transport crisis over the late summer/early autumn. What was known however was that the Axis had moved up a gear in early November, and the indication in the decrypts were a very clear sign that something was up. So there isn't a smoking gun, but between the increased activity outside Tobruk, where Axis forces were pushing in the perimeter from early October in the SE corner, the transfer of increased assault planes from Crete, Rommel's return from Rome, I think it must have been clear that they didn't have a big window. All the best Andreas
