Ukraine War. 2022-

Discussion in 'Postwar' started by CL1, Feb 26, 2022.

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  1. sol

    sol Very Senior Member

    Some reports suggest that it is Orsk sister ships, Saratov, which is lost in Berdyansk port. Also it is more probable that it is an accident, not a missile, responsible for ship loss.

    https://twitter.com/GrangerE04117/status/1506898147704213504
     
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  2. Andreas

    Andreas Working on two books

    Correct on Saratov. One of the Ropuchas also had a big fire going, but that's now extinguished it seems, and both of them are doing Donuts 12 miles south.

    They were dropping Tochkas on the port yesterday after Russian TV ran a feature about how awesome things were going there, no doubt watched by Ukrainian command.

    Hell of a coincidence for it to be an accident.

    All the best

    Andreas
     
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  3. Ramiles

    Ramiles Researching 9th Lancers, 24th L and SRY

    The Inquiry - Why is Russia’s invasion plan failing? - BBC Sounds

    Released On: 24 Mar 2022
    Available for over a year
    Russia's military dwarfs Ukraine's by comparison, so it was expected that Ukraine would fall under Russian occupation quickly. One month later and Russia have made very little progress and Kyiv, the capital, remains under Ukrainian control. Given the overwhelming odds stacked against the Ukrainian military, why has the Russian military failed to conquer Ukraine? Charmaine Cozier takes a closer look at where the Russian military have made their mistakes. Producer: Christopher Blake
     
  4. stolpi

    stolpi Well-Known Member



    Again very refreshing
     
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2022
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  5. Steve49

    Steve49 Boycott P&O...

    Regarding the explosion at Berdyansk; Navires de guerres et Aéronavale page on facebook added the following

    "Fuel storage and ammunition stockpile explosion this morning in Berdyansk, Ukraine. Russian Navy's Alligator class landing ship (Project 1171 -Tapir-class) observed near fire likely damaged. There are reports that at about 7:45 AM, a Tochka-U SRBM was fired towards the landing ships Saratov or Orsk, Tsesar Kunikov, and Novocherkassk. Saratov or Orsk sunk at a depth of 5 meters while Kunikov and Novercherkassk left port damaged. 8 killed on Kunikov and 3 killed and 3 injured [on the latter]. Οther reports speak about munition handling failure. More details and correct information soon."

    There is no confirmed information on casualties on the Saratov (which seems to the Aligator Class involved), but it stands to reason many crew will have been lost if they were not able to rapidly evacuate the area.
     
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  6. sol

    sol Very Senior Member

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  7. Steve49

    Steve49 Boycott P&O...

    I truth whether it was a TB-2, a Tochka SRBM or just an ammunition handling accident, the end result is a massive blow to Russian plans and another boost for those of the Ukrainians. One amphibious landing ship has been destroyed, a second damaged, a significant part of the port is out on use for some days to come and the berth where the Saratov has sunk out will be blocked for the foreseeable future.

    So all in all excellent news for the hard pressed people of Ukraine, and one more blow to Putin's illegal invasion.
     
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  8. ltdan

    ltdan Nietenzähler

    This map shows very clearly why "front lines" are not very meaningful.
    Red - Russian controlled
    Blue - Ukrainian controlled
    Gray - no man's land
    map.jpg
    source: https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1506274657812553737
     
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  9. Andreas

    Andreas Working on two books

    I disagree that Gray is no-man's land. It may not be permanently controlled, but if anyone is moving there, it's Ukrainians, not Russians. He got that one wrong.

    All the best

    Andreas
     
  10. von Poop

    von Poop Adaministrator Admin

    Mr Moran, being balanced, Mr Moran style.
     
    bofors, sol, stolpi and 1 other person like this.
  11. CL1

    CL1 116th LAA and 92nd (Loyals) LAA,Royal Artillery

  12. ltdan

    ltdan Nietenzähler

    To Nathan's credit, the term "no man's land" is mine. His definition is given in the quote
     
  13. stolpi

    stolpi Well-Known Member

    When I viewed the War in the Ukraine map this morning the situation around Kiev has changed - to my delight; especially east of Kiev - where I expected the main russian attack against the city would come from - has dramatically changed to the detriment of the rA. A nasty pocket has been created with only one way in or out:

    Kiev East.jpg

    ... this immediately conjured up images of another pocket:

    Kiev fallaise Pocket.jpg

    Will we witness another 'corridor of death' to the east side of Kiev ... and Novyi Bykiv becoming the new Chambois? Probably not. IMO the rA, with its failing top-down command and demoralized troops, will be unable to make an organized retreat - unlike the German Army at Falaise in WW2. Will this end in chaos and a mass surrender?

    To the west side of Kiev the situation is also developing favorably for the UA. If they could interdict the road, running south from, Ivankiv another nasty pocket would develop. Conditions in that area seem in favor of the UA. There are a lot of forested and build-up areas in that region providing cover.

    Intell british 23 March.jpg

     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2022
  14. ltdan

    ltdan Nietenzähler

    At the same time, down at Mykolaiv - Kherson "interesting things" are happening since last night....
     
  15. stolpi

    stolpi Well-Known Member

    This area - I call it the "Cherson Bridgehead" - IMO is a critcal area. A russian break out towards the north & north-east might compromize a UA stand at the Dnjepr River - which otherwise might function as a last resort for the troops now holding east Ukrainia.
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2022
  16. CL1

    CL1 116th LAA and 92nd (Loyals) LAA,Royal Artillery

  17. Andreas

    Andreas Working on two books

    I also disagree with that. It appears clear from events that Ukraine armed forces can move in sizeable packets in that area.

    All the best

    Andreas
     
  18. Ramiles

    Ramiles Researching 9th Lancers, 24th L and SRY

    The Real Story - Who are Russia’s friends? - BBC Sounds

    In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 141 of the UN’s 193 member states voted to condemn the action. But the Kremlin isn’t without its allies. Four nations voted with Russia against the resolution (Belarus, North Korea, Syria and Eritrea) and another 35 abstained. China is the most prominent of these, but India also sat out the vote. The world’s largest democracy has not only failed to criticise the invasion but has also shied away from introducing sanctions. That’s prompted President Biden to describe Delhi’s response to the war raging in Europe as “somewhat shaky”. But India isn’t alone. Israel too is hoping to stay neutral; it says so that it can facilitate talks between Moscow and Kyiv – with Foreign Minister Yair Lapid insisting “the way to stop the war is to negotiate”. So how much are current relationships based on ties dating back to the Cold War? How many countries still need Russia to maintain their own security and energy supplies? And can these partnerships survive in the face of harsh Western sanctions? Ritula Shah is joined by a panel of experts. Producers: Junaid Ahmed and Paul Schuster.

    Edit - also - Witness History - Soviet holidays in Crimea - BBC Sounds


    Artek, on the shores of the Black Sea in Crimea, was the Soviet Union's most popular holiday camp. Thousands of children visited every year. Maria Kim Espeland went there in the 1980s. She spoke to Lucy Burns in 2014.
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2022
  19. Impressive drone view of a Russian tank being blown to smithereens, with the turret flying high up in the air:
    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1506944223437897734

    Apparently this is known as the "Jack-in-the-box effect":
    Jack-in-the-box effect - Wikipedia

    Seems to be a rather frequent occurrence with Russian tanks ("Russki cookers"?).

    I believe I can see a secondary explosion as the ammo in the turret explodes mid-air.

    I hope the unfortunate crew heard the strike coming and fled for their lives before the hit. If so, I can't imagine them getting near any kind of armoured vehicle any time soon.
     
  20. von Poop

    von Poop Adaministrator Admin

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