Ukraine War. 2022-

Discussion in 'Postwar' started by CL1, Feb 26, 2022.

  1. von Poop

    von Poop Adaministrator Admin

    As wars turn into the traditional grind, all the counting of tanks and aircraft lost just starts to look ridiculous to me. A social media line that eventually tells us almost nothing, once you've reached the 'seen one armour kill video you've seen them all' stage of ennui.
    Strange modern way we now have of peering through the cracks from a safe distance...

    Bodies, though. That may be different. Such losses never having shed their military/political/social significance.
    Grown-up estimates for Russian dead seem to be about 30-40 thousand. Ukraine itself admitting 100-200 military dead a day. Likely an even higher overall total of civilians, as so often the case.
    Used to wonder if 'modern' States could endure WW2 levels of casualties for long. Seems they still can...

    Say again: The military mothers played a substantial role in Russian withdrawal from Afghanistan. Reports of entirely understandable increase of unrest from that quarter.

    Fascinates me that even after months still nobody appears to "Rule the skies" as asserted so confidently in the first couple of pages here.
    Have become so accustomed to modern wars having one side firmly in that position. Without it, the old land based meat-grinder apparently moves on.
    Andsco likes this.
  2. Yes, counting of tanks and aircrraft destroyed seems less relevant now. Losses in artillery pieces though (and levels of ammunition for the Ukrainian side), especially the longer ranging ones, is likely the current marker of this war-of-attrition phase. This is what now makes the body count grow.
    Terrifying reminiscence of WW1...
    Juha likes this.
  3. davidbfpo

    davidbfpo Patron Patron

    An interesting article on the transfer of the HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems):
    The range of the HIMARS in the Donbas region is at the end.
    Link: Ukraine Update: Not enough? Here's the challenge of moving even four HIMARS

    A later article on HIMARS: Ukraine Update: HIMARS it is, as Ukraine gets the rocket artillery it's been begging for
  4. davidbfpo

    davidbfpo Patron Patron

    First an update, the Ukrainian Minister of Defence tweeted a photo today of a HIMARS firing and with this text (cited in part):
  5. davidbfpo

    davidbfpo Patron Patron

    An article looking back a war when Russia was surprised by it's opponent. The 1904 Russo-Japanese War. Not read the article yet, the author is a Kings College London professor: What a 1904 War Can Teach Vladimir Putin

    Then a 46 minute podcast (free to listen) taking a historical view of the war. Starts with Dr. Rob Johnson, Changing Character of War @ Oxford University being quizzed by Adam Boulton (ex-Sky News), on the current war and Professor Hew Strachan (not yet heard) giving a longer historical viewpoint: Worldview: Reflections on War — The Battlefield
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2022
  6. davidbfpo

    davidbfpo Patron Patron

    A Sky TV report, 4m30s:
    Others have a speaking part, including a lady combat medic.
  7. Uncle Target

    Uncle Target Turn the page

    So much death and destruction for sure but of all the Experts, Media and Politicians what is really going on and for what.
    It seems that our world is falling apart, whichever side you look from.

    Tell the truth, tell me whose been fooling who?
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2022
  8. davidbfpo

    davidbfpo Patron Patron

    There is a saying, possibly a book title: 'The First Casualty in War is the Truth'. Both sides and others can be economical with the truth, even in the age of multiple open source researchers.
  9. davidbfpo

    davidbfpo Patron Patron

  10. Blutto

    Blutto Banned

    Putin went into this adventure on the basis of an incredible popularity that had endured for a very long time, but was actually a strategic ploy to boost his fast diminishing popularity. The control of Russian media is absolute. Anything like the BBC would have been eradicated a long time ago (plus point there). Aside from munitions, the focus of the West must be total propaganda bombardment.
  11. davidbfpo

    davidbfpo Patron Patron

    The Russian "steamroller" takes on a new form in the recall to service of General Pavel.
  12. JohnB

    JohnB Junior Member

    The morning, a Russian ammunition dump gets the HIMARs news

    The evening, a Ukrainian shopping centre gets a reply


    Bit disappointed that the arrival of HIMARS wasn't as a blizzard of rockets.

    That's how the Russians have replied.
  13. Charley Fortnum

    Charley Fortnum Dreaming of Red Eagles

    This is worth a read. The CGS outlines the British Army's moves to counter Russia in Europe:

    "I bow to no one in my advocacy for the need for game changing digital transformation, to put it bluntly, you can’t cyber your way across a river."

    The Chief of the General Staff General Sir Patrick Sanders' speech at the RUSI Land Warfare Conference 2022:

    Chief of the General Staff Speech at RUSI Land Warfare Conference
  14. Great speech! I especially liked the references to barnacles and to John Le Carré :D
  15. davidbfpo

    davidbfpo Patron Patron

    ltdan likes this.
  16. Dave55

    Dave55 Atlanta, USA

    Mr. Creosote?
    Mr Jinks likes this.
  17. davidbfpo

    davidbfpo Patron Patron

    Back in April 2022 Mark Urban, one of the BBC's Defence Correspondent, broadcast an outstanding article on the elite Russain 331st Airborne Regiment, fighting north of Kyiv and the human impact of the war (see Post 701). Last night he did an update on Newsnight, the regiment is now in the Donbass. Starts around 14:21 and ends 25:44. His estimate is that 50% of the regiment are dead, missing or seriously injured. Previously the regiment had 1500 members.
    Link: BBC iPlayer - Newsnight - 29/06/2022 and
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2022
    Owen likes this.
  18. Owen

    Owen -- --- -.. MOD

  19. ltdan

    ltdan Nietenzähler

    After spending the last few weeks cramming Snake Island with modern AA systems, RA evacuated the island yesterday after several days of UA artillery raids as a <cough> "gesture of goodwill" <cough>

    Anyone wondering what the actual value of the island is:
    Whoever exercises possession rights can declare a 200 nautical mile EEZ under international maritime law.
    Russia would have been able to exercise maritime claims N of the line Snake Island - Sevastopol and thus effectively dominate the entire Ukrainian coastline.
    If it had been declared as a rock instead of an island, they probably wouldn't have bothered at all:
    The meaning and rule of ISLANDS baseline and its difference with rocks and reefs on the law of the sea and LOSC

    In any case, with the presence of modern NATO artillery - and guided missile systems and the resulting significant losses, control of Snake Island is no longer maintainable for the RA.
    CL1 likes this.
  20. davidbfpo

    davidbfpo Patron Patron

    After Post 1177 a US Army veteran commented on the BBC videos:

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