The CV19 thread

Discussion in 'The Barracks' started by Dave55, Feb 28, 2020.

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  1. TTH

    TTH Senior Member

    I just wonder what a qualified epidemiologist would have to say if he was on this board.
     
  2. Tom OBrien

    Tom OBrien Senior Member

    Help!!!!! :D

    :peepwalla:
     
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  3. papiermache

    papiermache Well-Known Member

  4. Dave55

    Dave55 Atlanta, USA Patron

  5. Grasmere

    Grasmere Member

    Every decision the British government has made on tighter restrictions etc. is delayed by 3 or 4 days before it is enforced, and the media then follows each announcement with a headline "warning don't have a big night out this weekend before the restrictions come into force" and what do people do? Exactly that. Makes no sense to me.
     
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  6. SDP

    SDP Incurable Cometoholic

    .....but it must make sense to them. Just need to have that final party......
     
  7. Robert-w

    Robert-w Well-Known Member

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  8. Dave55

    Dave55 Atlanta, USA Patron

  9. KevinC

    KevinC Slightly wierd

  10. stolpi

    stolpi Well-Known Member

    Coronapocalypse in Holland
    " ... a pandemic with no end date"

    Weekly update (week 15 - 22 Sept):
    Alas, the virus is not done with us. In Holland the number of people with established COVID-19 is rising alarmingly - which resulted in a partial lock down of western Holland where the virus is currently concentrated (especially the bigger cities of Rotterdam, The Hague and Amsterdam). Last week 13.417 new individuals were reported who tested positive for COVID-19, which is 5.152 more than a week before. The R-factor now is 1,33 (was 1,38). In the past week 152 patients have been hospitalized for COVID-19 (again a growth in numbers; last week stood at 92); 33 people died of COVID.

    Meanwhile it is also clear that the disease for young people is by no means the innocent flu that activists like to make of it: the Dutch Facebook group "Corona patients with long-term complaints" counts more than 14 thousand members now. These are often younger ex-patients, who, even after mild Covid complaints, still suffer with debilitating and chronic complaints such as extreme fatigue, headache, shortness of breath, chest pain. Some even have brain malfunctions such as memory loss and loss of concentration ability.

    Researchers from the Amsterdam University Medical Center have discovered that corona is even more harmful than previously known. The virus also affects the brain, according to the Dutch researchers as a result of an overreaction of the immune-system. The research was recently published in the Lancet. Pathologist Paul van der Valk and his team studied the brains of eleven patients who died of Covid-19. In ten of the eleven he saw that the disease had left clear marks in the brain. For example, so-called T lymphocytes (immune cells) were discovered that do not belong in the brain. The abnormalities were found throughout the brain and spinal cord in the deceased corona patients. "These are cells that are normally kept out of the brain," says Van der Valk. “But in the Covid-19 patients, we saw that they had left the bloodstream and entered the brain tissue. Then I know as a pathologist: something is very wrong here.”

    In Holland and Belgium several people contracted Covid a second time, some of them died. So far for immunity then.

    Numbers now are:
    week 1 - 7 July: 19 new deaths, total now 6.132; number of confirmed cases 50.705
    week 8 - 14 July: 8 deaths, total now 6.140; number of confirmed cases 51.239
    week 14 - 21 July: 7 deaths, total now 6.147; number of confirmed cases 52.226
    week 21 - 28 July: 9 deaths, total bow 6.156; number of confirmed cases 53.555
    week 28 July - 4 Aug: 6 deaths, total now 6.162; number of confirmed cases 56.143
    week 5 - 11 Aug: 9 deaths, total now 6.171; number of confirmed cases 60.179
    week 11 - 18 Aug: 16 deaths, total now 6.187; number of confirmed cases 64.192
    week 18 - 25 Aug: 32 deaths, total now 6.219; number of confirmed cases 67.780.
    week 26 Aug - 1 Sept: 24 deaths, total now 6.234; number of conformed cases 71.359.
    week 2 - 8 Sept: 17 deaths, total now 6.251; number of confirmed cases 76.786.
    week 8 - 15 Sept: 14 deaths, total now 6.265; number of confirmed cases 85.051.
    week 15 - 22 Sept: 33 deaths, total now 6298; number of confirmed cases 98.468

    For comparison the (official) mortality rate caused by Covid per million of inhabitants:
    (based on the deaths registered by the John Hopkins University)

    Belgium
    (11,4 mln) with 9.950 deaths, it is 872,81
    Spain (46,7 mln), with 30.633 deaths, is 655,95
    UK (66,5 mln) this number, with 41.877 deaths, is 629,73
    USA (327,2 mln) with 199.980 deaths, it is 611,19
    Italy (60,4 mln) with 35.724 deaths, the number is 591,46
    Sweden (10,2 mln) with 5.870 deaths is 575,49
    France (67,0 mln) with 31.346 deaths, is 467,85
    Holland (17,2 mln) with 6.265 deaths, it now is 364,24
    Canada (37,1 mln) with 9.229 deaths is 248,76
    Germany (82,9 mln) with 9.400 deaths is 113,90

    Population numbers (courtesy SteveDee) Coronavirus deaths per million by country 2020 | Statista. Some countries - like Belgium - include suspected Covid deaths that were not tested. The official corona mortality of various countries is therefore less comparable.

    Belgium still is the relatively hardest hit country in Europe and maybe world-wide (a sky-high death rate of 872+ per million inhabitants) - but Belgium has been very strict with itself. It counts not only deaths after a positive test, but also of those who showed symptoms that indicate the virus; something other countries often don't do, which embellishes their statistics. Spain and the UK make a good second and third. The rates in Sweden, the only country in Europe that gambled for group immunity and decided not to lock down, are now almost up to the Italian rates.
    The deaths in the USA still are on the rise (approx. 1.000 a day) and are approaching the UK.
    Germany, where the virus spread at the same time as in Holland, is doing extremely well. The country has a more disciplined population and does a lot of testing, contact tracing and isolating.
     
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2020
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  11. Dave55

    Dave55 Atlanta, USA Patron

  12. A-58

    A-58 Not so senior Member

  13. Owen

    Owen -- --- -.. MOD

    How are you now ?
    OK I hope.
     
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  14. ltdan

    ltdan Nietenzähler

    ""We were not successful because our health authorities were better than the French, or because our hospitals are better equipped than the Italian ones. We reacted with exactly the same means as others. We did not do anything particularly well. We just did it earlier."
    Christian Drosten, virologist
     
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  15. canuck

    canuck Token Colonial Patron


    ты пьян
     
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  16. Robert-w

    Robert-w Well-Known Member

    The BBC appear to be about to embark on a series on "Long Covid". I think it is about the protracted recovery period some victims have but it does have a sort of piratical ring to it !
    "Arrh harky here Jim lad, should you hear one dark night the tap of a crutch and the rustle of a macaw's feathers outside the inn, be ye mighty afeered for tis Long Covid risen from Davy Jone's locker to wreak his revenge upon you - aharr matey - and I'll have another glass of rum please"
     
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  17. Don Juan

    Don Juan Well-Known Member

    The Covid's gone and I now have a stinking cold. The lurgees have definitely got it in for me these days.

    Thanks for asking!
     
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  18. Robert-w

    Robert-w Well-Known Member

    Yes, as the BBC would put it, "other Viruses are available". There does appear to be a rotten cold sneaking around avoiding publicity at the moment as I can testify!
     
  19. stolpi

    stolpi Well-Known Member

    Coronapocalypse in Holland
    " ... a pandemic with no end date"

    Weekly update (week 15 - 22 Sept):
    In Holland the number of people with established COVID-19 is rising fast - which resulted in what we call a mini-lock down, with social restrictions in western Holland further increased. Last week 19.327 new individuals were reported who tested positive for COVID-19, which is 4.855 more than a week before. The R-factor now is 1,27. In the past week 244 patients have been hospitalized for COVID-19 (again a growth in numbers; last week stood at 152); deaths more than tripled :102 people died of COVID (was 33).

    Meanwhile it is also clear that the disease for young people is by no means the innocent flu that activists like to make of it: the Dutch Facebook group "Corona patients with long-term complaints" counts more than 14 thousand members now. These are often younger ex-patients, who, even after mild Covid complaints, still suffer with debilitating and chronic complaints such as extreme fatigue, headache, shortness of breath, chest pain. Some even have brain malfunctions such as memory loss and loss of concentration ability. Researchers from the Amsterdam University Medical Center have discovered that corona is even more harmful than previously known. The virus also affects the brain according to the Dutch researchers as a result of an overreaction of the immune-system. In Holland and Belgium several people contracted Covid a second time, some of them died. So far for immunity then.

    Numbers now are:
    week 1 - 7 July: 19 new deaths, total now 6.132; number of confirmed cases 50.705
    week 8 - 14 July: 8 deaths, total now 6.140; number of confirmed cases 51.239
    week 14 - 21 July: 7 deaths, total now 6.147; number of confirmed cases 52.226
    week 21 - 28 July: 9 deaths, total bow 6.156; number of confirmed cases 53.555
    week 28 July - 4 Aug: 6 deaths, total now 6.162; number of confirmed cases 56.143
    week 5 - 11 Aug: 9 deaths, total now 6.171; number of confirmed cases 60.179
    week 11 - 18 Aug: 16 deaths, total now 6.187; number of confirmed cases 64.192
    week 18 - 25 Aug: 32 deaths, total now 6.219; number of confirmed cases 67.780.
    week 26 Aug - 1 Sept: 24 deaths, total now 6.234; number of conformed cases 71.359.
    week 2 - 8 Sept: 17 deaths, total now 6.251; number of confirmed cases 76.786.
    week 8 - 15 Sept: 14 deaths, total now 6.265; number of confirmed cases 85.051.
    week 15 - 22 Sept: 33 deaths, total now 6298; number of confirmed cases 98.468
    week 22 - 29 Sept:: 102 deaths, total now 6400; number of confirmed cases 117.795

    For comparison the (official) mortality rate caused by Covid per million of inhabitants:
    (based on the deaths registered by the John Hopkins University)

    Belgium
    (11,4 mln) with 9.987 deaths, it is 876,05
    Spain (46,7 mln), with 31.411 deaths, is 672,61
    UK (66,5 mln) this number, with 42.090 deaths, is 632,93
    USA (327,2 mln) with 205.107 deaths, it is 626,86
    Italy (60,4 mln) with 35.851 deaths, the number is 593,56
    Sweden (10,2 mln) with 5.890 deaths is 577,45
    France (67,0 mln) with 31.822 deaths, is 474,95
    Holland (17,2 mln) with 6.400 deaths, it now is 372,09
    Canada (37,1 mln) with 9.328 deaths is 251,43
    Germany (82,9 mln) with 9.478 deaths is 114,33

    Population numbers (courtesy SteveDee) Coronavirus deaths per million by country 2020 | Statista. Some countries - like Belgium - include suspected Covid deaths that were not tested. The official corona mortality of various countries is therefore less comparable.

    Belgium still is the relatively hardest hit country in Europe and maybe world-wide (a sky-high death rate of 876+ per million inhabitants) - but Belgium has been very strict with itself. It counts not only deaths after a positive test, but also of those who showed symptoms that indicate the virus; something other countries often don't do, which in turn embellishes their statistics. Spain and the UK make a good second and third. The rates in Sweden, the only country in Europe that gambled for group immunity and decided not to lock down, are now slowly approaching the Italian rate.
    The deaths in the USA still are on the rise (approx. 1.000 a day) and are almost up to the UK.
    Germany, where the virus spread at the same time as in Holland, is doing extremely well. The country has a more disciplined population and does a lot of testing, contact tracing and isolating.
     
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2020
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  20. Slipdigit

    Slipdigit Old Hickory Recon

    Positive test? How many of these positive tests are having any symptoms? Or, if they are having symptoms, did they even realize it at the time?

    I know about 8-10 people in my friend groups who have tested positive and about half never even knew they were sick. Of course, I also know another who has died, but he was low sick with something else before he got it.

    As it is, I have a strong impression I was exposed to Covid-19 back in late Feb. A worker in my building was the first documented case of it in Alabama in March. In February, we had 6 people in my office to get sick with something like the flu but it wasn't. Fever, body aches, etc with no positive diagnosis. Nor was it bronchitis. One was hospitalized with mild respiratory distress and mental confusion. I ran a low fever not long afterward for a few days, but had no other symptoms. Did I have it? No idea.

    I see the numbers on infections. What I want to see is the number of hospitalizations for it.

    Also, dying of Covid-19 isn't the same as dying with it.
     
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