The CV19 thread

Discussion in 'The Barracks' started by Dave55, Feb 28, 2020.

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  1. stolpi

    stolpi Well-Known Member

    Last edited: Jun 22, 2020
  2. ozzy16

    ozzy16 Patron Patron

  3. Slipdigit

    Slipdigit Old Hickory Recon

    I pretty sure I have already been exposed to it back in Feb. The first person in Alabama diagnosed with it worked in my building, on the first floor. In late Feb and early March, we had 5 or 6 people in my office sick with flu-like symptoms, with one hospitalized, that tested negative for the flu and other upper respiratory bugs. This was before any testing was being done here. We feel confident now that given their symptoms, they most likely had it, too. In late March, I had those low-grade symptoms that the vast majority of people who have the infection demonstrate, as did my immediate family. Nothing definitive, mind you, as we never were tested, but we all had a mild cough, sore throat, muscle discomfort, and for a day or two, a very low-grade fever. It was hardly noticeable.

    The mayor of the nearby large city has decreed that masks must be worn throughout his fair city. I understand the rank and file police and sheriff's deputies have privately stated they aren't going to enforce the edict.
    I don't go there much, but have to on occasion. I will have to decide if it is worth running into the few police that may cause issue with un-masked persons.

    In my nursing days we had a saying, "You can't get what you you've already got."
     
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  4. sheila and richard

    sheila and richard Well-Known Member

    We haven't any prove that we officially had covid 19 back in December 2019 just before christmas, but the symptoms we experienced at the time certainly led us to now believe that was what we had. I phoned my GP with breathing difficulties, and was instructed to attend surgery now. After a thorough examination, my GP concluded that I had got a particularly bad dose of a nasty virus that was going round and that the surgery had seen approx 100 people with the same symptoms the day before. I was told to take paracetamol, plenty of fluids and bed rest. Then around Feb/Mar 2020 I heard a financial person on LBC radio reported that the people who work in the financial market in Hong Kong were well aware in November 2019 of the virus circulating.
    Sheila
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 25, 2020
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  5. Rich Payne

    Rich Payne Rivet Counter Patron 1940 Obsessive

  6. stolpi

    stolpi Well-Known Member

    The Coronapocalyps in Holland:

    On Feb 27th, 2020, the first case of Covid19 was discovered in southern Holland. It later transpired that the virus was already in the Netherlands on February 15, twelve days before the first patient was officially tested positive. For several weeks it spread undisturbed, with the massively celebrated carnival in the Catholic south of our country acting as a catalyst. The Netherlands below the rivers became a true hotbed for the virus. In late afternoon of Sunday 15 March Holland went into pause: bars and restaurants were closed, social distancing, no public gatherings of over 100 people. At the time we had 1.413 registered patients and 24 deaths. The actual number of infections was higher, because not everyone in Holland is tested, only those who are "at risk of a serious disease course" - the real number of infections on 16 March was estimated at about 6000 people. Re the deaths - the real number of deceased patients in Holland, is probably higher, since only the deaths of confirmed Covid patients are registered.

    Since then I've been editing on a daily basis how the situation in Holland changes. These are 'only' official figures. The actual number of infections and deaths is most likely much higher:

    17 March - 19 new death cases, that makes 43; total confirmed patients 1705 (an increase of 292)
    18 March - 15 new deaths, total now risen to 58; total confirmed patients 2051 (an increase of 346)
    19 March - 18 new deaths, total now 76; total confirmed patients 2465 (an increase of 414)
    20 March - 30 people died over the last 24 hours; total now 106; total confirmed patients 2994 (an increase of 529)
    21 March - 30 deaths in the last 24 hours, death toll now 136; total confirmed patients 3631 (an increase of 637)
    22 March - 43 deaths, death toll now 179; total confirmed patients 4216 (an increase of 585)
    23 March - 34 people died over the last 24 hours; total number 213; total confirmed patients 4.749 (an increase of 533)

    As of March 23rd further restrictions became effective - (an almost complete) lock down: schools were closed, no public gathering of more than three people, work at home, social distancing (these measures are effective until April 28th)

    24 March - 63 deaths; total number now 276; total confirmed patients 5560 (increase of 811)
    25 March - 80 new deaths, total now 356; total confirmed patients 6412 (an increase of 852)
    26 March - 78 deaths, total now 434; total confirmed patients 7431 (an increase of 1019)
    27 March - 112 deaths, total now 546; total confirmed patients 8603 (an increase of 1172)
    28 March - 93 new deaths, total now 639; total confirmed patient 9762 (an increase of 1159).
    29 March - 132 new deaths, the death toll now is 771; total confirmed patients 10.866 (an increase of 1104)
    30 March - 93 new deaths, total now is 864; total confirmed patients 11.750 (an increase of 884)
    31 March - 175 new deaths, total now 1.039; total confirmed patients 12.595 (an increase of 845)
    1 April - 134 new deaths, total now 1.173; total confirmed patients 13.614 (an increase of 1.019)
    2 April - 166 new deaths, the death toll now is 1.339; total confirmed patients 14.697 (an increase of 1.083).
    3 April - 148 new deaths, total number now 1.487; total confirmed patients 15.723 (an increase of 1.026)
    4 April - 164 new deaths, total now 1.651; total confirmed patients 16.627 (an increase of 902)
    5 April - 115 new deaths, total now 1.766; total confirmed patients 17.851 (an increase of 1.224)
    6 April - 101 new deaths, total now 1.867; total confirmed patients 18.803 (an increase of 952)
    7 April - 234 new deaths, total now 2.101; total confirmed patients 19.580 (an increase of 777)
    8 April - 147 new deaths, which brings the total number to 2.248; number of confirmed patients is 20.549 (an increase of 969).
    9 April - 148 new deaths, total now is 2.396; number of confirmed patients 21.762 (an increase of 1.213)
    10 April - 115 new deaths, total now is 2.511; number of confirmed patients 23.097 (an increase of 1.335)
    11 April - 132 new deaths, total now 2.643; number of confirmed patients is 24.413 (an increase of 1.316).
    12 April - 94 new deaths, total now 2.737; number of confirmed patients is 25.587 (an increase of 1.174).
    13 April - 86 new deaths, total now 2.823; number of confirmed patients is 26.551 (an increase of 964).
    14 April - 122 new deaths, total now 2.945; number of confirmed patients is 27.419 (an increase of 868).
    15 April - 189 new deaths, total now 3.134; number of confirmed cases 28.153 (an increase of 739)
    16 April - 181 new deaths, total now 3.315; number of confirmed cases 29.214 (an increase of 1.061)
    17 April - 144 new deaths, total now 3.459; number of confirmed cases 30.449 (an increase of 1.235)
    18 April - 142 deaths, total now 3.601; number of confirmed cases 31.589 (an increase of 1.140)
    19 April - 83 deaths, total now 3.684; number of confirmed cases 32.655 (an increase of 1.066)
    20 April - 67 deaths, total now 3.751; number of confirmed cases 33.405 (an increase of 750)
    21 April - 165 deaths, total now 3.916; number of confirmed cases 34.134 (an increase of 729)
    22 April - 138 deaths, total now 4.054; number of confirmed cases 34.842 (an increase of 708)
    23 April - 123 deaths, total now 4.177; number of confirmed cases 35.729 (an increase of 887)
    24 April - 112 deaths, total now 4.289; number of confirmed cases 36.535 (an increase of 806)
    25 April - 120 deaths, total now 4.409; number of confirmed cases 37.190 (an increase of 655)
    26 April - 66 deaths, total now 4.475; number of confirmed cases 37.845 (an increase of 655)
    27 April - 43 deaths, total now 4.518 number of confirmed cases 38.245 (an increase of 400)
    28 April - 48 deaths, total now 4.566 number of confirmed cases 38.416 (an increase of 171)
    29 April - 145 deaths, total now 4.711 number of confirmed cases 38.802 (an increase of 386)
    30 April - 84 deaths, total now 4.795 number of confirmed cases 39.316 (an increase of 514)
    1 May - 98 new deaths, total now 4.893; number of confirmed cases 39.791 (an increase of 475)
    2 May - 94 new deaths, total now 4.987; number of confirmed cases 40.236 (an increase of 445)
    3 May - 69 new deaths, total now 5.056; number of confirmed cases 40.571 (an increase of 335)
    4 May - 26 new deaths, total now 5.082; number of confirmed cases 40.770 (an increase of 199)
    5 May - 86 new deaths, total now 5.168; number of confirmed cases 41.087 (an increase of 317)
    6 May - 36 new deaths, total now 5.204; number of confirmed cases 41.319 (an increase of 232)
    7 May - 84 new deaths, total now 5.288; number of confirmed cases 41.774 (an increase of 455)
    8 May - 63 new deaths, total now 5.359; number of confirmed cases 42.093 (an increase of 319)
    9 May - 71 new deaths, total now 5.422; number of confirmed cases 42.382 (an increase of 289)
    10 May - 18 new deaths, total now 5.440; number of confirmed cases 42.627 (an increase of 245)

    From 11 May onward schools partly reopened, as are the barber shops(!). We now are allowed to go outside, provided we keep social distance (1,5 meters) and do not crowd (3 = a crowd). Effects of these mitigations will be visible in two to three weeks. From June 1st, if all goes well, further steps will be set in re-opening.

    11 May - 16 new deaths, total now 5.456; number of confirmed cases 42.788 (an increase of 161)
    12 May - 54 new deaths, total now 5.510; number of confirmed cases 42.948 (an increase of 196)
    13 May - 52 new deaths, total now 5.590; number of confirmed cases 43.211 (an increase of 227)
    14 May - 28 new deaths, total now 5.562; number of confirmed cases 43.481 (an increase of 270)
    15 May - 53 new deaths, total now 5.643; number of confirmed cases 43.681 (an increase of 200)
    16 May - 27 new deaths, total now 5.670; number of confirmed cases 43.870 (an increase of 189)
    17 May - 10 new deaths, total now 5.680; number of confirmed cases 43.995 (an increase of 125)
    18 May - 14 new deaths, total now 5.694; number of confirmed cases 44.141 (an increase of 146)
    19 May - 21 new deaths, total now 5.715; number of confirmed cases 44.249 (an increase of 108)
    20 May - 33 new deaths, total now 5.748; number of confirmed cases 44.447 (an increase of 198)
    21 May - 27 new deaths, total now 5.775; number of confirmed cases 44.700 (an increase of 253)
    22 May - 13 new deaths, total now 5.788; number of confirmed cases 44.888 (an increase of 188)
    23 May - 23 new deaths, total now 5.811; number of confirmed cases 45.064 (an increase of 176)
    24 May - 11 new deaths, total now 5.822; number of confirmed cases 45.236 (an increase of 172)
    25 May - 8 new deaths, total now 5.830; number of confirmed cases 45.445 (an increase of 209)
    26 May - 26 new deaths, total now 5.856; number of confirmed cases 45.578 (an increase of 133)
    27 May - 15 new deaths, total now 5.871; number of confirmed cases 45.768 (an increase of 190)
    28 May - 32 new deaths, total now 5.903; number of confirmed cases 45.950 (an increase of 182)
    29 May - 28 new deaths, total now 5.931; number of confirmed cases 46.126 (an increase of 176)
    30 May - 20 new deaths, total now 5.951; number of confirmed cases 46.257 (an increase of 131)
    31 May - 5 new deaths, total now 5.956; number of confirmed cases 46.442 (an increase of 185)
    1 June - 6 new deaths, total now 5.962; number of confirmed cases 46.545 (an increase of 103)
    2 June - 5 new deaths, total now 5.967; number of confirmed cases 46.647 (an increase of 102)
    3 June - 10 new deaths, total now 5.977; number of confirmed cases 46.733 (an increase of 86)
    4 June - 13 new deaths, total now 5.990; number of confirmed cases 46.942 (an increase of 209)
    5 June - 15 new deaths, total now 6.005; number of confirmed cases 47.152 (an increase of 210)
    6 June - 6 new deaths, total now 6.011; number of confirmed cases 47.335 (an increase of 183)
    7 June - 2 new deaths, total now 6.013; number of confirmed cases 47.574 (an increase of 239)
    8 June - 3 new deaths, total now 6.016; number of confirmed cases 47.739 (an increase of 165)
    9 June - 15 new deaths, total now 6.031; number of confirmed cases 47.903 (an increase of 164)
    10 June - 11 new deaths, total now 6.042; number of confirmed cases 48.087 (an increase of 184)
    11 June - 2 new deaths, total now 6.044; number of confirmed cases 48.251 (an increase of 164)
    12 June - 9 new deaths, total now 6.053; number of confirmed cases 48.461 (an increase of 210)
    13 June - 4 new deaths, total now 6.057; number of confirmed cases 48.640 (an increase of 179)
    14 June - 2 new deaths, total now 6.059; number of confirmed cases 48.783 (an increase of 143)
    15 June - 6 new deaths, total now 6.065; number of confirmed cases 48.948 (an increase of 165)
    16 June - 5 new deaths, total now 6.070; number of confirmed cases 49.087 (an increase of 140)
    17 June - 4 new deaths, total now 6.074; number of confirmed cases 49.204 (an increase of 119)
    18 June - 4 new deaths, total now 6.078; number of confirmed cases 49.319 (an increase of 132)
    19 June - 3 new deaths, total now 6.081; number of confirmed cases 49.426 (an increase of 116)
    20 June - 8 new deaths, total now 6.089; number of confirmed cases 49.502 (an increase of 91)
    21 June - 1 new death, total now 6.090; number of confirmed cases 49.593 (an increase of 98)
    22 June - 0 new deaths, total now 6.090; number of confirmed cases 49.658 (an increase of 69)
    23 June - 5 new deaths, total now 6.095; number of confirmed cases 49.772 (an increase of 70)

    24 June - 2 new deaths, total now 6.097; number of confirmed cases 49.804 (an increase of 83)
    25 June - 3 new deaths, total now 6.100; number of confirmed cases 49.914 (an increase of 111)
    26 June - 3 new deaths, total now 6.103; number of confirmed cases 50.005 (an increase of 96)
    27 June - 2 new deaths, total now 6.105; number of confirmed cases 50.074 (an increase of 71)
    28 June - 0 new deaths, total now 6.105; number of confirmed cases 50.147 (an increase of 74)
    29 June - 2 new deaths, total now 6.107; number of confirmed cases 50.223 (an increase of 78)

    Edit today:
    30 June - 6 new deaths, total now 6.113; number of confirmed cases 50.273 (an increase of 57)

    It remains "All Quiet on the COVID Front". The number of new infections in Holland are steadily going down, despite more intensive testing. Since June 1st, anyone with complaints can get tested quickly, and in most cases the results will follow within a few days.

    After eleven weeks of lock down Holland is now in the fifth week of a gradual reopening. We are carefully taking the path of normal life again, with emphasize on social distancing.
    Today's hospital admissions were 3. Yesterday the number was 3, the day before yesterday 3and the days before that resp. 6, 5,1, 6, 3, 2, 2, 11, 3, 4, 4, 3, 6, 9, 5, 3, 6, 5, 4, 3 ,11,12, 9, 6, 9, 5, 8, 9, 16, 7, 10, 8, 13, 10, 7, 13, 14, 34, 25, 15, 45, 35, 27, 52, 35, 36, 22, 58, 35, 39, 27, 89, 44, 42, 97, 85, 84, 76, 88, 65, 75, 100, 123, 137, 124, 118, 75, 110, 129, 156, 182, 188, 210, 147, 196,189, 225, 237, 308, 292, 260, 253, 336, 502, 625, 447 and 722.

    The limited number of available ICU-beds is no longer an issue, with the lower influx rates we will cope. Today (28 June) the number of COVID19 ICU-patients is 29.

    On the minus side: Though it looks that we are well past the peak the virus is still slumbering. We have registered about 3.480 new cases since June 1st and we are still losing people on a daily basis - though the numbers of deaths have fallen drastically. 129 people perished since June 1st. We now officially have registered 50.223 corona patients, of these 11.874 were admitted to hospital and a number of 6.107 died. The tally however is incomplete, more people have become infected with the virus and more died from its effects than has been registered. It gradually becomes clear that this is a substantial group and the official numbers are only part of the iceberg. Based on a study of the average death rates over the past few years in Holland, the real number of Covid-deaths might be many thousands more (latest estimate is 3.600). Especially hard hit are the nursing homes. While the focus lay on the capacity in the hospitals, the coronavirus in nursing homes was spreading like wildfire. This would bring deaths in Holland at least at 9.695 (= 563,37 per million).


    Group immunity comes painfully slowly: In average nearly 5.5 percent of Dutch blood donors have developed antibodies to the coronavirus. That is a "modest increase" from the 3 percent measured in April. It can therefore take another two years before group immunity is achieved in the Netherlands.

    For comparison the (official) mortality rate caused by Covid per million of inhabitants:
    (based on the deaths registered by the John Hopkins University)

    Belgium
    (11,4 mln) with 9.771 deaths, it is 857,11
    UK (66,5 mln) this number, with 44.305 deaths, is 666,24
    Spain (46,7 mln), with 28.385 deaths, is 607,82
    Italy (60,4 mln) with 34.861 deaths, the number is 577,17
    Sweden (10,2 mln) with 5.420 deaths is 531,37
    France (67,0 mln) with 29.896 deaths, is 446,21
    USA (327,2 mln) with 129.947 deaths, it is 397,15
    Holland (17,2 mln) with 6.127 deaths, it now is 356,22
    Canada (37,1 mln) with 8.739 deaths is 235,55
    Germany (82,9 mln) with 9.023 deaths is 108,83

    Population numbers (courtesy SteveDee) Coronavirus deaths per million by country 2020 | Statista. Some countries - like Belgium - include suspected Covid deaths that were not tested. The official corona mortality of various countries is therefore less comparable.

    Belgium still is the relatively hardest hit country in Europe and maybe world-wide (a sky-high death rate of 855 per million inhabitants - but Belgium has been very strict with itself. It counts not only deaths after a positive test, but also of persons with symptoms that indicate the virus. The UK and Spain follow at a distance. It seems that Germany, where the virus spread at the same time as in Holland, is coping well ... what is their secret? (28.000 ICU's and they also do a lot of testing, contact tracing and isolating).
    The death rates in Sweden, the only country in Europe that opted for a smooth approach, with only a very limited lockdown, are steadily on the rise and significantly higher than the surrounding Scandinavian countries and now even approach the Italian rate.
    The deaths in the USA are rising and at first sight seem shockingly high, but the country has a large population, so the death rate still is relatively low. It now is somewhat higher than in Holland. If the USA would have been hit as hard as Belgium, deaths would number about 279.750+. The USA is a large country with wide areas with a sparse population density where the virus does not spread easily. Initially my best guess was that the USA would approach the rates of France, a country alternated by overcrowded cities and a sparsely populated countryside, provided they would act wisely and do not open up too soon. This still would have meant a death toll of 145.750+. I now opt for a Swedish scenario (the country of the more lenient lock down) and foresee to a death toll of 172.250+.

    Edit: This is the last daily update. The Dutch RIVM from now on will publish the COVID statistics once a week.
     
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2020
  7. DianeE

    DianeE Member

    An update from South Africa.
    We now have a total of 151209 confirmed cases which is an increase of 6945 in one day. The death toll is 2657

    The Western Cape has the highest number of infections and deaths with Gauteng second.

    The figures are expected to rise as Lockdown restrictions have been eased to level 3. There is still a ban on tobacco products but we can now buy alcohol.!

    PPE, ventilators and hospital beds are in short supply.

    It is scary. Colin and I live in a retirement complex in the Southern Suburbs of Cape Town and a member of the catering staff has tested positive. Thankfully other staff members tested negative. We now have a new catering team.

    Stay safe
    Diane
     
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  8. canuck

    canuck Closed Account

    Canada reported 409 new cases of Covid-19 on Monday, with almost half of that number sourced to an outbreak among temporary agriculture workers in southern Ontario. This was the largest jump in numbers since June 19th.

    Monday’s numbers, which also includes 14 new fatalities, brings Canada’s total infections and death toll to 103,900 and 8,566, respectively.
     
  9. stolpi

    stolpi Well-Known Member

    Now that the lock down measures are mitigated people immediately are getting sloppy in Holland ... hope the three months of lock down were not in vain.

    Most 'are done' with Covid19, whereas the virus is not (yet) done with us.
     
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2020
  10. canuck

    canuck Closed Account

    Well put. That appears to be the sentiment here too although we are clearly more compliant with the preventative measures than our southern neighbours.

     
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  11. KevinC

    KevinC Slightly wierd

  12. KevinC

    KevinC Slightly wierd

    We are rushing up the leader board
    Annotation 2020-07-07 095147.jpg
     
  13. stolpi

    stolpi Well-Known Member

    Weekly update:
    Last week, 432 new individuals were reported to have tested positive for COVID-19. Nine patients were hospitalized due to COVID-19. 19 persons succumbed.

    Numbers now are:
    week 1 - 7 July: 19 new deaths, total now 6.132; number of confirmed cases 50.705


    For comparison the (official) mortality rate caused by Covid per million of inhabitants:

    (based on the deaths registered by the John Hopkins University)

    Belgium
    (11,4 mln) with 9.782 deaths, it is 858,07
    UK (66,5 mln) this number, with 44.915 deaths, is 675,41
    Spain (46,7 mln), with 28.406 deaths, is 608,27
    Italy (60,4 mln) with 34.967 deaths, the number is 578,92
    Sweden (10,2 mln) with 5.536 deaths is 542,75
    France (67,0 mln) with 30.032 deaths, is 448,24
    USA (327,2 mln) with 135.605 deaths, it is 414,44
    Holland (17,2 mln) with 6.137 deaths, it now is 356,80
    Canada (37,1 mln) with 8.836 deaths is 238,17
    Germany (82,9 mln) with 9.074 deaths is 109,46

    Population numbers (courtesy SteveDee) Coronavirus deaths per million by country 2020 | Statista. Some countries - like Belgium - include suspected Covid deaths that were not tested. The official corona mortality of various countries is therefore less comparable.

    Belgium still is the relatively hardest hit country in Europe and maybe world-wide (a sky-high death rate of 858 per million inhabitants - but Belgium has been very strict with itself. It counts not only deaths after a positive test, but also of persons with symptoms that indicate the virus. The UK and Spain follow at a distance. Germany, where the virus spread at the same time as in Holland, is doing extremely well. The country has a more disciplined population and does a lot of testing, contact tracing and isolating.
    The death rates in Sweden, the only country in Europe that opted for a smooth approach, with only a very limited lock down, are significantly higher than the surrounding Scandinavian countries and now even approach the Italian rates.
    The deaths in the USA are now fast on the rise (approx. 1.000 a day), though the rates are dampened by the large population the country has. Initially my best guess was that the USA would approach the rates of France, a country which is also alternated by overcrowded cities and a sparsely populated countryside. This would have meant a death toll of 146.600+. I now opt for a Swedish scenario (the country with a more lenient lock down) and foresee to a death toll of about 177.500+.
     
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2020
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  14. Dave55

    Dave55 Atlanta, USA Patron

    I don't know about other countries but in the US anyone who dies in the hospital with covid is recorded as dying from covid.
     
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  15. Stuart Avery

    Stuart Avery In my wagon & not a muleteer.

     
  16. High Wood

    High Wood Well-Known Member

    Stuart,

    I haven't been able to discern the meaning of your reply to my posts, but on the off chance that you are a closet abandoned Telephone Box aficionado, here is another for your delectation.


    Bettys 013.JPG
     
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  17. Stuart Avery

    Stuart Avery In my wagon & not a muleteer.

    No, i meant the above. A red phone box. Trying to do a post on ones phone can be tricky.
    No probs it's been lost.
    Stu.
     
  18. stolpi

    stolpi Well-Known Member

    Caught 'red handed' :D ... oops where did that picture go? :unsure:
     
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2020
  19. KevinC

    KevinC Slightly wierd

    In just 5 days we have leapt up to 9th. The problem is we are no where near the so called peak
    Annotation 2020-07-12 095221.jpg
     
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  20. A-58

    A-58 Not so senior Member

    The numbers are up because there is more testing available as of late. And the "yellow journalists" (the media) continues to whip their viewership into a frenzy with their drivel.
     
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