Actually the 17th century was a pretty poor one - for Britain at least. Civil War saw the death of 3.7% of the population of England - WW1 accounted for 3.0%. The Black Death returned to Britain in the 60s. There was a military dictatorship for a time. Scotland lost 6% of her population due to various civil wars rebellions etc. The percentage in Ireland is still contentious but was certainly much higher On the Continent the 30 Years War was the direct cause of some 450,000 deaths and consequent famine and disease accounted for some 20% of the overall population - in some areas as many as 60% perished.
Yes, thank you Bob, but the point I was making is that there has never been a Golden Age and you don't get to choose the century in which you are born. It all depends on your circumstances, the 17th Century wasn't so bad if you were a Mughal Emperor with a well stocked harem, but not so good for the thousands of Indians put to death for failing to convert to the religion of their conquerors. 1939-45 wasn't so bad if you were a Swiss banker with a vault full of Nazi gold and a private collection of looted artworks. For everyone else in Europe, it perhaps wasn't so good. Being the Czar of Russia was probably quite enjoyable for several centuries but in 1917, not so much. It is all relative as to who and where you are at any point in history. The trick is to make the most of the hand that you have been dealt and to be able to read (and understand) the writing on the wall. With the lack of understanding of epidemiology in the 17th century, it is hardly surprising that the plague reappeared in England at the time but it also reappeared in Surat in India in 1994. A failure to learn from history and to apply its lessons. We are currently in the middle of a pandemic and are still running around like headless chickens, because we have again failed to learn the lessons. All centuries are pretty poor for some of the people most of the time and pretty good for most of the people some of the time. As the late, great Joe Strummer once remarked, after the revolution it makes no difference who is riding around in the big, black, shiny cars if you still the one who gets to clean the toilets.
Like many others, I am a victim of the deadly quarantine and have been stuck in my home since the 9th of March. What I've recently discovered are the joys of WhatsApp and Zoom and at least twice a day I trek upstairs to my main computer and, with one of my daughters I do a lot of the Times puzzles and crosswords. My other daughter takes her mobile with on her morning walk and shows me the local sights. We also get, by the use of "sharing" a chance to look at and discuss each others computer files, including old photos. Any other Zoom or WhatsApp devotees on site ? Ron
Ron Good to see you're doing OK in your usual very pragmatic 'glass half full rather than glass half empty' way. Lots of people - me included - learn a great deal from you so please keep up the good work. We've tried Zoom - it's pretty good. Best wishes Steve
It can be strongly argued that if there has ever been a Golden Age, we are in it now. The general health, wealth and security of humanity has never been higher. But, nothing is promised so we should enjoy every minute. Or, at least after Covid is done with us.
Well to put it simply if I had a choice between cleaning 17th century toilets and 21st ones I know what I'd choose
The trouble is, I fear the world has gone soft in its outlook, especially the Western world. People feel that they are owed a living and a high standard one at that. The British government did a wonderful thing when they announced that they would hold the country in its arms for a period in terms of covering wages, rents and all the other financial concerns in our daily lives. My worry is that people will come to expect this in all future crisis and that sadly, many will hide behind the Covid period and milk the system for all its worth. Can you imagine what the media would do to a company that tried to sack anyone who stated they were too fearful to return to work!
Using human health, wealth and security as a unit of measurement I can argue exactly the opposite. We are living in a fool's paradise where we are conditioned to believe that we can not only have, but are entitled to have, anything we want. We are way past the tipping point and the whole rotten system is at the point of collapse. The coming recession could well usher in a new dark age politically. The party is over, the bubble has burst, the banks are broken and there are no diamonds in the mine.
You don't get to choose though, do you? The whole thing is a lottery, an accident of birth. With a lot of hard work, a proper education and bucketful of good luck, you may be able to improve your lot in life but generally only within very narrow parameters for the majority of mankind.
Every once in a while a reporter will surprise you. After the president announced Operation Warp speed and likened it to The Manhattan Project, a TV talking head said General Gustave Perna would serve the role that General Leslie Groves did. Good analogy, I thought, and it seemed spur of the moment too.
Obviously C17th ones, due to the vanishingly small percentage of people with a proper arrangement & ditches/streets & gong pits not being seen as needing much cleaning. Good money to be made in Saltpetre scrapings too, especially with a war on. I mentioned Mr Peachey's (Green Valley chap) stew. It actually had a connection to C17th & modern toilets, but I shan't go there.
Well, that was a highly depressing assessment. Actually, I don't believe you are arguing with my assertion but more suggesting that it is about to collapse. You could well be right but predicting the future is a difficult thing. I recall the dire predictions of world over-population from the eighties which described a devastated planet with mass disease and starvation. None of that came to pass and I suspect the next decade will unfold in unforeseen ways. As for today's world, however fleeting it may be, the key metrics around poverty, food production, diet, life expectancy, education, family size, disease, wealth distribution, wars, freedom, mobility, etc. etc. are all the best they have ever been. A middle class person today is far better off than the ultra rich from 100 years ago. Many significant problems remain to be solved but it isn't nearly as bad as Greta would have us believe. There is hope! After Trump's second term I've heard he has plans to change his citizenship and come over to the U.K. to fix you guys up as well.
Here in Louisiana, Phase 1 of opening the economy began today. Most businesses, including places of worship were allowed to open but at only 25% capacity. Employees are required to wear masks and working surfaces are to be cleaned after use. Social distancing is still required, but seldom have I seen two people standing close together for quite some time now. And I got called back to work starting Monday morning at 8 o’clock in the AM! Yay me! It’s been raining like a cow pissing on a flat rock around here since yesterday, so no riding the lawnmower for quite awhile. I have a few projects left that I have been putting off so maybe tomorrow after lunch or Sunday weather permitting I’ll knock them out. Bars that don’t serve food will be allowed to reopen in Phase 2. No date for that has been set. Casinos will open Monday morning with the 25% occupancy mandate. New Orleans and neighboring Jefferson Parish will not make any changes soon. They are the hotbed of Kung Flu in Louisiana. First thing in the morning I’m heading to the barbershop to get tidied up a bit. Gotta look good before reporting back to duty you know. And I have a date tomorrow night too so yay me again!
I am looking at it from a historical point of view rather than a political one. Understanding what happened in the past is the best guide to what will happen in the future. Over ten years on from the last financial crash, where instead of sorting out the fundamental flaws in the systems we kicked the can down the road by printing trillions in worthless bank notes. Now, in the midst of a global pandemic, we are about to see another financial collapse on an even bigger scale. There is but one country that is in a position to weather the storm due to its strong manufacturing base. That country has already bought huge amounts of our remaining manufacturing capability and will very likely buy huge amounts more. I think that we are now in a position similar to the world as it was in 1931. Financial collapse, angry, hungry masses, and dark forces awaiting in the wings for their day in the sunshine. A couple of years of famine could well tip us over the edge. The centre of gravity is moving east and I believe that we are now in one of those watershed moments in history where the old order is changing and nothing will ever quite be the same again. I am not sure that we are going to enjoy what is coming next.
The Coronapocalyps in Holland: On Feb 27th, 2020, the first case of Covid19 was discovered in southern Holland. It transpired later that the virus was already in the Netherlands on February 15, twelve days before the first patient was officially tested positive. For several weeks it spread undisturbed, with the massively celebrated carnival in the Catholic south of our country acting as a catalyst. The Netherlands below the rivers became a true hotbed for the virus. In late afternoon of Sunday 15 March Holland went into pause: bars and restaurants were closed, social distancing, no public gatherings of over 100 people. At the time we had 1.413 registered patients and 24 deaths. The actual number of infections was higher, because not everyone in Holland is tested, only those who are "at risk of a serious disease course" - the real number of infections on 16 March was estimated at about 6000 people. Re the deaths - the real number of deceased patients in Holland, is probably higher, since only the deaths of confirmed Covid patients are registered. Since then I've been editing on a daily basis how the situation in Holland changes. These are 'only' official figures. The actual number of infections and deaths is most likely much higher: 17 March - 19 new death cases, that makes 43; total confirmed patients 1705 (an increase of 292) 18 March - 15 new deaths, total now risen to 58; total confirmed patients 2051 (an increase of 346) 19 March - 18 new deaths, total now 76; total confirmed patients 2465 (an increase of 414) 20 March - 30 people died over the last 24 hours; total now 106; total confirmed patients 2994 (an increase of 529) 21 March - 30 deaths in the last 24 hours, death toll now 136; total confirmed patients 3631 (an increase of 637) 22 March - 43 deaths, death toll now 179; total confirmed patients 4216 (an increase of 585) 23 March - 34 people died over the last 24 hours; total number 213; total confirmed patients 4.749 (an increase of 533) As of March 23rd further restrictions became effective - (an almost complete) lock down: schools were closed, no public gathering of more than three people, work at home, social distancing (these measures are effective until April 28th) 24 March - 63 deaths; total number now 276; total confirmed patients 5560 (increase of 811) 25 March - 80 new deaths, total now 356; total confirmed patients 6412 (an increase of 852) 26 March - 78 deaths, total now 434; total confirmed patients 7431 (an increase of 1019) 27 March - 112 deaths, total now 546; total confirmed patients 8603 (an increase of 1172) 28 March - 93 new deaths, total now 639; total confirmed patient 9762 (an increase of 1159). 29 March - 132 new deaths, the death toll now is 771; total confirmed patients 10.866 (an increase of 1104) 30 March - 93 new deaths, total now is 864; total confirmed patients 11.750 (an increase of 884) 31 March - 175 new deaths, total now 1.039; total confirmed patients 12.595 (an increase of 845) 1 April - 134 new deaths, total now 1.173; total confirmed patients 13.614 (an increase of 1.019) 2 April - 166 new deaths, the death toll now is 1.339; total confirmed patients 14.697 (an increase of 1.083). 3 April - 148 new deaths, total number now 1.487; total confirmed patients 15.723 (an increase of 1.026) 4 April - 164 new deaths, total now 1.651; total confirmed patients 16.627 (an increase of 902) 5 April - 115 new deaths, total now 1.766; total confirmed patients 17.851 (an increase of 1.224) 6 April - 101 new deaths, total now 1.867; total confirmed patients 18.803 (an increase of 952) 7 April - 234 new deaths, total now 2.101; total confirmed patients 19.580 (an increase of 777) 8 April - 147 new deaths, which brings the total number to 2.248; number of confirmed patients is 20.549 (an increase of 969). 9 April - 148 new deaths, total now is 2.396; number of confirmed patients 21.762 (an increase of 1.213) 10 April - 115 new deaths, total now is 2.511; number of confirmed patients 23.097 (an increase of 1.335) 11 April - 132 new deaths, total now 2.643; number of confirmed patients is 24.413 (an increase of 1.316). 12 April - 94 new deaths, total now 2.737; number of confirmed patients is 25.587 (an increase of 1.174). 13 April - 86 new deaths, total now 2.823; number of confirmed patients is 26.551 (an increase of 964). 14 April - 122 new deaths, total now 2.945; number of confirmed patients is 27.419 (an increase of 868). 15 April - 189 new deaths, total now 3.134; number of confirmed cases 28.153 (an increase of 739) 16 April - 181 new deaths, total now 3.315; number of confirmed cases 29.214 (an increase of 1.061) 17 April - 144 new deaths, total now 3.459; number of confirmed cases 30.449 (an increase of 1.235) 18 April - 142 deaths, total now 3.601; number of confirmed cases 31.589 (an increase of 1.140) 19 April - 83 deaths, total now 3.684; number of confirmed cases 32.655 (an increase of 1.066) 20 April - 67 deaths, total now 3.751; number of confirmed cases 33.405 (an increase of 750) 21 April - 165 deaths, total now 3.916; number of confirmed cases 34.134 (an increase of 729) 22 April - 138 deaths, total now 4.054; number of confirmed cases 34.842 (an increase of 708) 23 April - 123 deaths, total now 4.177; number of confirmed cases 35.729 (an increase of 887) 24 April - 112 deaths, total now 4.289; number of confirmed cases 36.535 (an increase of 806) 25 April - 120 deaths, total now 4.409; number of confirmed cases 37.190 (an increase of 655) 26 April - 66 deaths, total now 4.475; number of confirmed cases 37.845 (an increase of 655) 27 April - 43 deaths, total now 4.518 number of confirmed cases 38.245 (an increase of 400) 28 April - 48 deaths, total now 4.566 number of confirmed cases 38.416 (an increase of 171) 29 April - 145 deaths, total now 4.711 number of confirmed cases 38.802 (an increase of 386) 30 April - 84 deaths, total now 4.795 number of confirmed cases 39.316 (an increase of 514) 1 May - 98 new deaths, total now 4.893; number of confirmed cases 39.791 (an increase of 475) 2 May - 94 new deaths, total now 4.987; number of confirmed cases 40.236 (an increase of 445) 3 May - 69 new deaths, total now 5.056; number of confirmed cases 40.571 (an increase of 335) 4 May - 26 new deaths, total now 5.082; number of confirmed cases 40.770 (an increase of 199) 5 May - 86 new deaths, total now 5.168; number of confirmed cases 41.087 (an increase of 317) 6 May - 36 new deaths, total now 5.204; number of confirmed cases 41.319 (an increase of 232) 7 May - 84 new deaths, total now 5.288; number of confirmed cases 41.774 (an increase of 455) 8 May - 63 new deaths, total now 5.359; number of confirmed cases 42.093 (an increase of 319) 9 May - 71 new deaths, total now 5.422; number of confirmed cases 42.382 (an increase of 289) 10 May - 18 new deaths, total now 5.440; number of confirmed cases 42.627 (an increase of 245) From 11 May onward schools partly reopened, as are the barber shops(!). We now are allowed to go outside, provided we keep social distance (1,5 meters) and do not crowd (3 = a crowd). We'll see in two to three weeks from now if this has effects for the hospitalizations. From June 1st further steps will be set in re-opening. 11 May - 16 new deaths, total now 5.456; number of confirmed cases 42.788 (an increase of 161) 12 May - 54 new deaths, total now 5.510; number of confirmed cases 42.948 (an increase of 196) 13 May - 52 new deaths, total now 5.590; number of confirmed cases 43.211 (an increase of 227) 14 May - 28 new deaths, total now 5.562; number of confirmed cases 43.481 (an increase of 270) 15 May - 53 new deaths, total now 5.643; number of confirmed cases 43.681 (an increase of 200) 16 May - 27 new deaths, total now 5.670; number of confirmed cases 43.870 (an increase of 189) 17 May - 10 new deaths, total now 5.680; number of confirmed cases 43.995 (an increase of 125) 18 May - 14 new deaths, total now 5.694; number of confirmed cases 44.141 (an increase of 146) 19 May - 21 new deaths, total now 5.715; number of confirmed cases 44.249 (an increase of 108) Edit today: 20 May - 33 new deaths, total now 5.748; number of confirmed cases 44.447 (an increase of 198) Holland now is in the tenth week of the lock down, which started 15 March and which will last until 20 May. The fight against Covid is entering a new phase now that virologists and doctors have put out the first fire. Where the health crisis first dominated, there is increasing scope for other aspects and issues are becoming more political. Over the next period we will reopen step-by-step. Schools and day-care already started from 11 May onwards, but only for the youngest kids, the 4 - 12 years old and only in small groups. For large public events, such as concerts and sport events (football), there is a 'no-go' until 1 September - I'm afraid this also might affect the Airborne celebrations at Arnhem next September. We slowly and carefully unlock. It is not the time to become overconfident. The daily statistics we see today are the delayed results of our behaviour of three weeks ago. The good news: The virus sloooowly wears out. Today's numbers again were low. The reproduction factor - the number of people infected by an infected person - remains low at 0.8 or about. Today's hospital admissions were low at 14. Yesterday the number was 34, the day before yesterday 25 and the days before that resp. 15, 45, 35, 27, 52, 35, 36, 22, 58, 35, 39, 27, 89, 44, 42, 97, 85, 84, 76, 88, 65, 75, 100, 123, 137, 124, 118, 75, 110, 129, 156, 182, 188, 210, 147, 196,189, 225, 237, 308, 292, 260, 253, 336, 502, 625, 447 and 722. The limited number of available ICU-beds is no longer an issue, with the lower influx rates we will cope. Today (20 May) the number of ICU-patients again has dropped to 275. Only one of them is still treated in a German hospital. This gives us some threshold in case infections spike again. On the minus side: We are still losing people on a daily basis. We now officially have registered nearly 44.250 corona patients, a number of 5.715 people perished. The tally however is incomplete, more people have become infected with the virus and more died from its effects than has been registered. It gradually becomes clear that this is a substantial group and the official numbers are only part of the iceberg. Based on a study of the average death rates over the past few years in Holland, the real number of Covid-deaths might be many thousands more (latest estimate is 3.600). Especially hard hit are the nursing homes. While the focus lay on the capacity in the hospitals, the coronavirus in nursing homes was spreading like wildfire. This would bring deaths in Holland at least at 9.315 (= 543,49 per million). This is not a normal flu: Doctors and scientists are beginning to understand the demolition the coronavirus causes to the body, and are perplexed by what they see. It really affect patients from head to toe. "This virus is completely different from what we've seen so far." Perhaps the most important explanation for the severity of the new disease: Covid-19, doctors now say worldwide, is not only a lung disease, but starts with many severely ill patients with blood that clots. Yes, patients who stay in an IC bed for a long time are more likely to have clotting problems, but what doctors see happening in corona patients is much more serious, says radiologist and professor Edwin van Beek, one of the early researchers. In the past few months, with autopsies, he saw alveoli filled with fluid and inflammation, but also clots in the pulmonary veins and pulmonary arteries. Van Beek also affects relatively young patients with a stroke or with blood clots in the abdomen, he hears about patients with kidney damage that must be on dialysis, after which the tubes are sometimes clogged with lumps. For comparison the (official) mortality rate caused by Covid per million of inhabitants: (based on the deaths registered by the John Hopkins University) Belgium (11,4 mln) with 9.150 deaths, it is 802,63 Spain (46,7 mln), with 27.778 deaths, is 594,82 Italy (60,4 mln) with 32.169 deaths, the number is 532,60 UK (66,5 mln) this number, with 35.422 deaths, is 532,56 France (67,0 mln) with 28.025 deaths, is 418,28 Sweden (10,2 mln) with 3.743 deaths is 366,96 Holland (17,2 mln) with 5.748 deaths, it now is 334,19 USA (327,2 mln) with 91.938 deaths, it's 280,98 Canada (37,1 mln) with 6.028 deaths is 162,58 Germany (82,9 mln) with 8.112 deaths is 97,85 Population numbers (courtesy SteveDee) Coronavirus deaths per million by country 2020 | Statista Belgium still is the relatively hardest hit country in Europe and maybe world-wide (a death rate of 798+ per million inhabitants - the higher figures, I guess, are caused by a more thorough registration of deaths in this country). Spain and Italy follow at a distance. It seems that Germany, where the virus spread at the same time as in Holland, is coping well ... what is their secret? (28.000 ICU's and they also do a lot of testing, contact tracing and isolating). The death rates in Sweden, the only country in Europe that adopted the strategy of not locking down, are steadily on the rise and significantly higher than the surrounding Scandinavian countries (Denmark has a rate of 91,21, Norway 41,24 and Finland 48,37) - the Swedish death rate now is slightly higher than Holland. But group immunity in Sweden has attained a high level of 40% (Holland has 5 - 6 % and still has to open up). Makes me wonder: Is the Swedish strategy the better one in the long term? The deaths in the USA are rising and on first sight look staggering, but the country has a large population so the death rate still is relatively low. If the USA would have been hit as hard as Belgium, deaths would number 262.600+. The USA is a large country with wide areas with a sparse population density where the virus does not spread easily. My best guess is that the USA will approach the rates in France, which also is alternated by overcrowded cities and a sparsely populated countryside, provided they act wisely and not open up to soon. This still will mean a considerable death toll of about 136.800.
