The CV19 thread

History is filled with people who spend time just before a crisis hits saying " it is overblown, what could possibly go wrong ".

Interesting read about a Canadian provincial politician who saw the pandemic coming and flattened the curve.
Heroes of the pandemic: New Brunswick politician who crushed the COVID-19 curve is a virus whisperer

 

Good find, thanks.

 

I'll take competence over charisma any day. So underrated in politicians.

 

So under represented

 

Superb! I've still got some reusable bright orange Binder Twine left over from one of those from way back in the 1960s.

 

I can remember driving a Massey Ferguson around a farm in the Trough of Bowland towing one of those

 

Never used one of those - that job was left to Uncle Ray - but spent many a happy hour ploughing and doing other jobs with our 'Little Grey Fergie'. Our family were actually very traditional Family Butchers to the extent that we had our own Slaughterhouse and fields on which to keep Stock and even grew the Hay on which to feed said stock in the Wintertime.

 

What the USS Hancock ?

 

Our local high school in Lawrenceville, GA

 

Look, no rubber tyres ! The Ferguson "A" or Ferguson "Brown" at about 4 minutes 18 seconds.

 

Wow!

We didn't even need to build a wall.


Canada-US border likely to remain closed through June 21 due to coronavirus

 

The Massey family was very prominent here in a Canada with a Governor General and a celebrated actor (who served in both world wars) counted among the clan. I was always amused by a Canadian actor playing a U.S. president to critical acclaim. Raymond was also a key mentor to Christopher Plummer.

Massey family - Wikipedia

 

Here's a 35 being delivered in the states.

 

The Coronapocalyps in Holland:

On Feb 27th, 2020, the first case of Covid19 was discovered in southern Holland. It transpired later that the virus was already in the Netherlands on February 15, twelve days before the first patient was officially tested positive. For several weeks it spread undisturbed, with the massively celebrated carnival in the Catholic south of our country acting as a catalyst. The Netherlands below the rivers became a true hotbed for the virus. In late afternoon of Sunday 15 March Holland went into pause: bars and restaurants were closed, social distancing, no public gatherings of over 100 people. At the time we had 1.413 registered patients and 24 deaths. The actual number of infections was higher, because not everyone in Holland is tested, only those who are "at risk of a serious disease course" - the real number of infections on 16 March was estimated at about 6000 people. Re the deaths - the real number of deceased patients in Holland, is probably higher, since only the deaths of confirmed Covid patients are registered.

Since then I've been editing on a daily basis how the situation in Holland changes. These are 'only' official figures. The actual number of infections and deaths is most likely much higher:

17 March - 19 new death cases, that makes 43; total confirmed patients 1705 (an increase of 292)
18 March - 15 new deaths, total now risen to 58; total confirmed patients 2051 (an increase of 346)
19 March - 18 new deaths, total now 76; total confirmed patients 2465 (an increase of 414)
20 March - 30 people died over the last 24 hours; total now 106; total confirmed patients 2994 (an increase of 529)
21 March - 30 deaths in the last 24 hours, death toll now 136; total confirmed patients 3631 (an increase of 637)
22 March - 43 deaths, death toll now 179; total confirmed patients 4216 (an increase of 585)
23 March - 34 people died over the last 24 hours; total number 213; total confirmed patients 4.749 (an increase of 533)

As of March 23rd further restrictions became effective - (an almost complete) lock down: schools were closed, no public gathering of more than three people, work at home, social distancing (these measures are effective until April 28th)

24 March - 63 deaths; total number now 276; total confirmed patients 5560 (increase of 811)
25 March - 80 new deaths, total now 356; total confirmed patients 6412 (an increase of 852)
26 March - 78 deaths, total now 434; total confirmed patients 7431 (an increase of 1019)
27 March - 112 deaths, total now 546; total confirmed patients 8603 (an increase of 1172)
28 March - 93 new deaths, total now 639; total confirmed patient 9762 (an increase of 1159).
29 March - 132 new deaths, the death toll now is 771; total confirmed patients 10.866 (an increase of 1104)
30 March - 93 new deaths, total now is 864; total confirmed patients 11.750 (an increase of 884)
31 March - 175 new deaths, total now 1.039; total confirmed patients 12.595 (an increase of 845)
1 April - 134 new deaths, total now 1.173; total confirmed patients 13.614 (an increase of 1.019)
2 April - 166 new deaths, the death toll now is 1.339; total confirmed patients 14.697 (an increase of 1.083).
3 April - 148 new deaths, total number now 1.487; total confirmed patients 15.723 (an increase of 1.026)
4 April - 164 new deaths, total now 1.651; total confirmed patients 16.627 (an increase of 902)
5 April - 115 new deaths, total now 1.766; total confirmed patients 17.851 (an increase of 1.224)
6 April - 101 new deaths, total now 1.867; total confirmed patients 18.803 (an increase of 952)
7 April - 234 new deaths, total now 2.101; total confirmed patients 19.580 (an increase of 777)
8 April - 147 new deaths, which brings the total number to 2.248; number of confirmed patients is 20.549 (an increase of 969).
9 April - 148 new deaths, total now is 2.396; number of confirmed patients 21.762 (an increase of 1.213)
10 April - 115 new deaths, total now is 2.511; number of confirmed patients 23.097 (an increase of 1.335)
11 April - 132 new deaths, total now 2.643; number of confirmed patients is 24.413 (an increase of 1.316).
12 April - 94 new deaths, total now 2.737; number of confirmed patients is 25.587 (an increase of 1.174).
13 April - 86 new deaths, total now 2.823; number of confirmed patients is 26.551 (an increase of 964).
14 April - 122 new deaths, total now 2.945; number of confirmed patients is 27.419 (an increase of 868).
15 April - 189 new deaths, total now 3.134; number of confirmed cases 28.153 (an increase of 739)
16 April - 181 new deaths, total now 3.315; number of confirmed cases 29.214 (an increase of 1.061)
17 April - 144 new deaths, total now 3.459; number of confirmed cases 30.449 (an increase of 1.235)
18 April - 142 deaths, total now 3.601; number of confirmed cases 31.589 (an increase of 1.140)
19 April - 83 deaths, total now 3.684; number of confirmed cases 32.655 (an increase of 1.066)
20 April - 67 deaths, total now 3.751; number of confirmed cases 33.405 (an increase of 750)
21 April - 165 deaths, total now 3.916; number of confirmed cases 34.134 (an increase of 729)
22 April - 138 deaths, total now 4.054; number of confirmed cases 34.842 (an increase of 708)
23 April - 123 deaths, total now 4.177; number of confirmed cases 35.729 (an increase of 887)
24 April - 112 deaths, total now 4.289; number of confirmed cases 36.535 (an increase of 806)
25 April - 120 deaths, total now 4.409; number of confirmed cases 37.190 (an increase of 655)
26 April - 66 deaths, total now 4.475; number of confirmed cases 37.845 (an increase of 655)
27 April - 43 deaths, total now 4.518 number of confirmed cases 38.245 (an increase of 400)
28 April - 48 deaths, total now 4.566 number of confirmed cases 38.416 (an increase of 171)
29 April - 145 deaths, total now 4.711 number of confirmed cases 38.802 (an increase of 386)
30 April - 84 deaths, total now 4.795 number of confirmed cases 39.316 (an increase of 514)
1 May - 98 new deaths, total now 4.893; number of confirmed cases 39.791 (an increase of 475)
2 May - 94 new deaths, total now 4.987; number of confirmed cases 40.236 (an increase of 445)
3 May - 69 new deaths, total now 5.056; number of confirmed cases 40.571 (an increase of 335)
4 May - 26 new deaths, total now 5.082; number of confirmed cases 40.770 (an increase of 199)
5 May - 86 new deaths, total now 5.168; number of confirmed cases 41.087 (an increase of 317)
6 May - 36 new deaths, total now 5.204; number of confirmed cases 41.319 (an increase of 232)
7 May - 84 new deaths, total now 5.288; number of confirmed cases 41.774 (an increase of 455)
8 May - 63 new deaths, total now 5.359; number of confirmed cases 42.093 (an increase of 319)
9 May - 71 new deaths, total now 5.422; number of confirmed cases 42.382 (an increase of 289)
10 May - 18 new deaths, total now 5.440; number of confirmed cases 42.627 (an increase of 245)

From 11 May onward schools partly reopened, as are the barber shops!

11 May - 16 new deaths, total now 5.456; number of confirmed cases 42.788 (an increase of 161)
12 May - 54 new deaths, total now 5.510; number of confirmed cases 42.948 (an increase of 196)
13 May - 52 new deaths, total now 5.590; number of confirmed cases 43.211 (an increase of 227)
14 May - 28 new deaths, total now 5.562; number of confirmed cases 43.481 (an increase of 270)

Edit today:
15 May - 53 new deaths, total now 5.643; number of confirmed cases 43.681 (an increase of 200)

Holland now is in the ninth week of the lock down, which started 15 March and which will last until 20 May. The fight against Covid is entering a new phase now that virologists and doctors have put out the first fire. Where the health crisis first dominated, there is increasing scope for other aspects and issues are becoming more political.

Over the next few months we will reopen step-by-step. Starting with schools and day-care from 11 May onwards, but only for the youngest kids, the 4 - 12 years old and only in small groups. For large public events, such as concerts and sport events (football), there is a 'no-go' until 1 September - I'm afraid this also might affect the Airborne celebrations at Arnhem next September. We slowly and carefully unlock. It is not the time to become overconfident. The daily statistics we see today are the delayed results of our behaviour of three weeks ago.

The good news: The virus wears out - as do we - but the decline seems to slacken. The reproduction factor - the number of people infected by an infected person - remains low at 0.8 or about. Today's hospital admissions were 35. Yesterday the number was 27 , the day before yesterday 52 and the days before that resp. 35, 36, 22, 58, 35, 39, 27, 89, 44, 42, 97, 85, 84, 76, 88, 65, 75, 100, 123, 137, 124, 118, 75, 110, 129, 156, 182, 188, 210, 147, 196,189, 225, 237, 308, 292, 260, 253, 336, 502, 625, 447 and 722.

The limited number of available ICU-beds is no longer an issue, with the lower influx rates we will cope. Today (13 May) the number of ICU-patients again has dropped to 432 (15 of these are treated in German hospitals). This gives us some threshold in case infections spike again.

On the minus side: We are still losing people on a daily basis. We now officially have registered more than 43.400 corona patients, a number of 5.590 people perished. The tally however is incomplete, more people have become infected with the virus and more died from its effects than has been registered. It gradually becomes clear that this is a substantial group and the official numbers are only part of the iceberg. Based on a study of the average death rates over the past few years in Holland, the real number of Covid-deaths might be many thousands more (latest estimate is 3.600). Especially hard hit are the nursing homes. While the focus lay on the capacity in the hospitals, the coronavirus in nursing homes was spreading around like wildfire. This would bring deaths in Holland at least at 9.162 (= 532,67 per million). These GP-ciphers however are incomplete since the registration started weeks after the virus hit and thus do not cover the entire period.

This is not a normal flu: there is concern about the long-term effects of corona. Several Dutch corona patients show severe lung and even brain damage. Additional research must show whether this damage is chronic.

This is also confirmed by pathological research of people who died of or with Covid-19. Four Dutch pathologists have focused on autopsies of COVID deceased. That research should provide a better understanding of the disease.

"We come across a huge range of abnormalities. We see different patterns of damage in the lungs alone," says Jan von der Thüsen, a chest pathologist at Erasmus MC. "We see broken alveoli, blood clots in large blood vessels, damage to the smallest capillaries and scar tissue."

The amount of blood clots in the pulmonary arteries is particularly striking, says Katrien Grünberg, professor of pathology at Radboud University Medical Center. These clots block blood vessels, so tissues behind them do not absorb enough oxygen. "Usually you have to look for clots, but now I often see several in one patient. It's really in your face."

"In the lungs, for example, you can see both fluid that has just leaked from the blood vessels and scar tissue that arose earlier. We don't yet understand what that means. Does the body not clear the virus? Does the body maintain the disease after the virus has disappeared? ?

Heart, kidneys and even the brain can also become inflamed. "Until now we do not find virus particles in the brain, but the immune cells in the brain are larger and more active than normal," says neuropathologist Marianna Bugiani of the Amsterdam UMC. "In addition, we find immune cells in the brain that do not normally occur there. This may explain why some patients temporarily lose their sense of smell, become confused or have difficulty moving."


For comparison the (official) mortality rate caused by Covid per million of inhabitants:
(based on the deaths registered by the John Hopkins University)

Belgium (11,4 mln) with 8.903 deaths, it is 780,96
Spain (46,7 mln), with 27.321 deaths, is 585,03
Italy (60,4 mln) with 31.368 deaths, the number is 519,34
UK (66,5 mln) this number, with 33.693 deaths, is 506,66
France (67,0 mln) with 27.428 deaths, is 409,37
Sweden (10,2 mln) with 3.529 deaths is 345,98
Holland (17,2 mln) with 5.643 deaths, it now is 328,08
USA (327,2 mln) with 85.906 deaths, it's 262,55
Canada (37,1 mln) with 5.592 deaths is 150,73
Germany (82,9 mln) with 7.884 deaths is 95,10

Population numbers (courtesy SteveDee) Coronavirus deaths per million by country 2020 | Statista

Contrary to what the press wants us to believe, Belgium is relatively by far the hardest hit country in Europe and maybe world-wide (a death rate of 780+ per million inhabitants - the higher figures, I guess, are caused by a more thorough registration of deaths in this country). Spain and Italy follow at a distance. It seems that Germany, where the virus spread at the same time as in Holland, is coping well ... what is their secret? (28.000 ICU's and they also do a lot of testing, contact tracing and isolating).
The death rates in Sweden, the only country in Europe that adopted the strategy of not locking down, are steadily on the rise and significantly higher than the surrounding Scandinavian countries (Denmark has a rate of 91,21, Norway 41,24 and Finland 48,37) - the Swedish death rate now is slightly higher than Holland. But group immunity in Sweden has attained a high level of 40% (Holland has 5 - 6 % and still has to open up). Makes me wonder: Is the Swedish strategy the better in the long term?
The deaths in the USA are rising and on first sight look staggering, but because the country has a large population, the death rate still is relatively low. If the USA would have been hit as hard as Belgium, deaths would number 255.500+. The USA is a large country with wide areas with a low population density where the virus does not spread easily. My best guess is that the USA will approach the numbers somewhere in between France and the UK, provided they act wisely and not open up to soon. This still will mean a considerable death toll of between 130.000 - 160.000.

 

I thought it came from bats!