The CV19 thread

HW - Not entirely true:

 

Given the extent of the Louisiana wetlands I would have thought they were well ahead in submerged grass cutting technology

 

And here we have the average Louisiana garden owner

 

I am wrong again, I'll take it all back.

 

Nope, no castles here in Louisiana. They appear to be very heavy and would sink into the turf and capsize, leaving an awful mess to cut and trim around. Besides, there's not enough rocks and stones laying around to build such a place even if you felt inclined to do so.

There's an antebellum home near the town of White Castle named Nottoway Plantation. It sort of looks like a castle at a glance.

Here's the front of the big house. It faces east, and is directly on the Mississippi River.




It's sort of castle'ish looking, for around these parts anyway.

They have a pretty big yard. I'd like to take a crack at it with my Scag. I could go through half a box of cigars on that place.

Nottoway Plantation - Wikipedia

 

Canuck - Not quite ... the Norsemen allegedly arrived over 600 years before that ...



They left a permanent proof of this at L'Anse aux Meadows:


Leif Erikson and his Viking friends lived here circa 1000. This is what he looked like :

 

Yeah, and some of them made it all the way to Minnesota. They settled there, and later their descendants organized the local football team, the Minnesota Vikings. American football that is, none of that footy stuff y'all play all over the rest of the planet.

 

No problemo

 

Self-isolating and footy stuff demonstrated

 

That looks like real work. Worse than running a weedwhacker. I really don't care for weedwhacking.

 

The Norse did not make it to Ontario. That honour goes to the French.

 

Pieter,

You forgot about the QOR museum here in Toronto:

 

We have two castles in Connecticut that are part of State Parks. The first is Gillette Castle, home of actor William Gillette, who played Sherlock Holmes in the theater. The second is Sleeping Giant Castle at the top of Sleeping Giant mountain.

 

As a New Yorker, I'd like to point out that we have a castle in my state as well. I refer to Bannerman's Castle on Bannerman's Island in the Hudson River at Beacon, New York. Francis Bannerman was a Scottish immigrant to New York. In the early years of the 20th Century he built up an enormous and enormously profitable surplus arms and equipment business, the Interarmco of its day. Bannerman had a building-sized store in New York City, but the bulk of his stock was stored in Bannerman's Castle, which he built both as his arsenal and his home. The business failed after Bannerman's death and the castle has been slowly crumbling to pieces for many decades. Not much of it remains except for parts of the facade, but I'm pleased to hear that a preservation trust has at last been set up to save what remains.

 

A very pretty castle but completely indefensible. As the commander of a besieging army I send half a dozen peasant lads armed with catapults to break your windows. You come storming out complaining about the youth of today and shouting, "I know who you are, wait till I see your father", leaving the place unguarded. I sally forward with half a dozen of my best knights and your castle is mine.

 

Tim, I did not forget about that at all ... on the contrary ... but only referred to the USA ... Canada has a real castle too.



But I seem to remember it is well hidden ... we had to search for it for a long time and even got lost .. and don't blame the car navigation (!). Still very sorry we did not see the VC of Aubrey Cosens at the QOR Museum, which is kept elsewhere in the town at the QOR armoury.

The caste entirely dominates the town. View from one of the attic windows of the castle ... the sky-line of down town Toronto:

 

I'm hoping that the message here in Britain will change today when Boris speaks at 7pm.

I'd suggest something like:-

Go Outside >>> Get Plenty of Fresh Air >>> Protect Your Mental Health

>>> Stay Away From People >>> Don't Touch Anything >>> Stop Pushing Your Fingers Up Your Nose or In Your Mouth

>>> Wash Your Hands You Dirty Bastards


...but I doubt he will go that far.

 

Time to sober up again ...

The Coronapocalyps in Holland:

On Feb 27th, 2020, the first case of Covid19 was discovered in southern Holland. It transpired later that the virus was already in the Netherlands on February 15, twelve days before the first patient was officially tested positive. For several weeks it spread undisturbed, with the massively celebrated carnival in the Catholic south of our country acting as a catalyst. The Netherlands below the rivers became a true hotbed for the virus. In late afternoon of Sunday 15 March Holland went into pause: bars and restaurants were closed, social distancing, no public gatherings of over 100 people. At the time we had 1.413 registered patients and 24 deaths. The actual number of infections was higher, because not everyone in Holland is tested, only those who are "at risk of a serious disease course" - the real number of infections on 16 March was estimated at about 6000 people. Re the deaths - the real number of deceased patients in Holland, is probably higher, since only the deaths of confirmed Covid patients are registered.

Since then I've been editing on a daily basis how the situation in Holland changes. These are 'only' official figures. The actual number of infections and deaths is most likely much higher:

17 March - 19 new death cases, that makes 43; total confirmed patients 1705 (an increase of 292)
18 March - 15 new deaths, total now risen to 58; total confirmed patients 2051 (an increase of 346)
19 March - 18 new deaths, total now 76; total confirmed patients 2465 (an increase of 414)
20 March - 30 people died over the last 24 hours; total now 106; total confirmed patients 2994 (an increase of 529)
21 March - 30 deaths in the last 24 hours, death toll now 136; total confirmed patients 3631 (an increase of 637)
22 March - 43 deaths, death toll now 179; total confirmed patients 4216 (an increase of 585)
23 March - 34 people died over the last 24 hours; total number 213; total confirmed patients 4.749 (an increase of 533)

As of March 23rd further restrictions became effective - (an almost complete) lock down: schools were closed, no public gathering of more than three people, work at home, social distancing (these measures are effective until April 28th)

24 March - 63 deaths; total number now 276; total confirmed patients 5560 (increase of 811)
25 March - 80 new deaths, total now 356; total confirmed patients 6412 (an increase of 852)
26 March - 78 deaths, total now 434; total confirmed patients 7431 (an increase of 1019)
27 March - 112 deaths, total now 546; total confirmed patients 8603 (an increase of 1172)
28 March - 93 new deaths, total now 639; total confirmed patient 9762 (an increase of 1159).
29 March - 132 new deaths, the death toll now is 771; total confirmed patients 10.866 (an increase of 1104)
30 March - 93 new deaths, total now is 864; total confirmed patients 11.750 (an increase of 884)
31 March - 175 new deaths, total now 1.039; total confirmed patients 12.595 (an increase of 845)
1 April - 134 new deaths, total now 1.173; total confirmed patients 13.614 (an increase of 1.019)
2 April - 166 new deaths, the death toll now is 1.339; total confirmed patients 14.697 (an increase of 1.083).
3 April - 148 new deaths, total number now 1.487; total confirmed patients 15.723 (an increase of 1.026)
4 April - 164 new deaths, total now 1.651; total confirmed patients 16.627 (an increase of 902)
5 April - 115 new deaths, total now 1.766; total confirmed patients 17.851 (an increase of 1.224)
6 April - 101 new deaths, total now 1.867; total confirmed patients 18.803 (an increase of 952)
7 April - 234 new deaths, total now 2.101; total confirmed patients 19.580 (an increase of 777)
8 April - 147 new deaths, which brings the total number to 2.248; number of confirmed patients is 20.549 (an increase of 969).
9 April - 148 new deaths, total now is 2.396; number of confirmed patients 21.762 (an increase of 1.213)
10 April - 115 new deaths, total now is 2.511; number of confirmed patients 23.097 (an increase of 1.335)
11 April - 132 new deaths, total now 2.643; number of confirmed patients is 24.413 (an increase of 1.316).
12 April - 94 new deaths, total now 2.737; number of confirmed patients is 25.587 (an increase of 1.174).
13 April - 86 new deaths, total now 2.823; number of confirmed patients is 26.551 (an increase of 964).
14 April - 122 new deaths, total now 2.945; number of confirmed patients is 27.419 (an increase of 868).
15 April - 189 new deaths, total now 3.134; number of confirmed cases 28.153 (an increase of 739)
16 April - 181 new deaths, total now 3.315; number of confirmed cases 29.214 (an increase of 1.061)
17 April - 144 new deaths, total now 3.459; number of confirmed cases 30.449 (an increase of 1.235)
18 April - 142 deaths, total now 3.601; number of confirmed cases 31.589 (an increase of 1.140)
19 April - 83 deaths, total now 3.684; number of confirmed cases 32.655 (an increase of 1.066)
20 April - 67 deaths, total now 3.751; number of confirmed cases 33.405 (an increase of 750)
21 April - 165 deaths, total now 3.916; number of confirmed cases 34.134 (an increase of 729)
22 April - 138 deaths, total now 4.054; number of confirmed cases 34.842 (an increase of 708)
23 April - 123 deaths, total now 4.177; number of confirmed cases 35.729 (an increase of 887)
24 April - 112 deaths, total now 4.289; number of confirmed cases 36.535 (an increase of 806)
25 April - 120 deaths, total now 4.409; number of confirmed cases 37.190 (an increase of 655)
26 April - 66 deaths, total now 4.475; number of confirmed cases 37.845 (an increase of 655)
27 April - 43 deaths, total now 4.518 number of confirmed cases 38.245 (an increase of 400)
28 April - 48 deaths, total now 4.566 number of confirmed cases 38.416 (an increase of 171)
29 April - 145 deaths, total now 4.711 number of confirmed cases 38.802 (an increase of 386)
30 April - 84 deaths, total now 4.795 number of confirmed cases 39.316 (an increase of 514)
1 May - 98 new deaths, total now 4.893; number of confirmed cases 39.791 (an increase of 475)
2 May - 94 new deaths, total now 4.987; number of confirmed cases 40.236 (an increase of 445)
3 May - 69 new deaths, total now 5.056; number of confirmed cases 40.571 (an increase of 335)
4 May - 26 new deaths, total now 5.082; number of confirmed cases 40.770 (an increase of 199)
5 May - 86 new deaths, total now 5.168; number of confirmed cases 41.087 (an increase of 317)
6 May - 36 new deaths, total now 5.204; number of confirmed cases 41.319 (an increase of 232)
7 May - 84 new deaths, total now 5.288; number of confirmed cases 41.774 (an increase of 455)
8 May - 63 new deaths, total now 5.359; number of confirmed cases 42.093 (an increase of 319)
9 May - 71 new deaths, total now 5.422; number of confirmed cases 42.382 (an increase of 289)
10 May - 18 new deaths, total now 5.440; number of confirmed cases 42.627 (an increase of 245)
11 May - 16 new deaths, total now 5.456; number of confirmed cases 42.788 (an increase of 161)
12 May - 54 new deaths, total now 5.510; number of confirmed cases 42.948 (an increase of 196)

Edit today:
13 May - 52 new deaths, total now 5.562; number of confirmed cases 43.211 (an increase of 227)

Holland now is in the ninth week of the lock down, which started 15 March and which will last until 20 May. The fight against Covid is entering a new phase now that virologists and doctors have put out the first fire. Where the health crisis first dominated, there is increasing scope for other aspects and issues are becoming more political.

Fighting this virus remains a hell of a job. Since we have little knowledge of how the virus behaves, it is mainly sailing in the fog - without compass or other navigation systems to assist. It will be a long-term process of trial and error - in which social distancing will be the common thread, facemasks, as well as intensive testing and isolating ... this will not be over until we have a vaccin ... or have reached 'group immunity'. The latter requires an infection rate of 60 - 70% of the population; we've reached a mere 5 - 6% now - still 26 months to go ... hope we have a vaccin before that

Over the next few months we will reopen step-by-step. Starting with schools and day-care from 11 May onwards, but only for the youngest kids, the 4 - 12 years old and only in small groups. For large public events, such as concerts and sport events (football), there is a 'no-go' until 1 September - I'm afraid this also might affect the Airborne celebrations at Arnhem next September. We slowly and carefully unlock. It is not the time to become overconfident. The daily statistics we see today are the delayed results of our behaviour of three weeks ago.

The good news: The virus wears out - as do we - but the decline seems to slacken. The reproduction factor - the number of people infected by an infected person - remains low at 0.8 or about. Today's hospital admissions were slightly higher at 52. Yesterday the number was 35, the day before yesterday 36 and the days before that resp. 22, 58, 35, 39, 27, 89, 44, 42, 97, 85, 84, 76, 88, 65, 75, 100, 123, 137, 124, 118, 75, 110, 129, 156, 182, 188, 210, 147, 196,189, 225, 237, 308, 292, 260, 253, 336, 502, 625, 447 and 722.

The limited number of available ICU-beds is no longer an issue, with the lower influx rates we will cope. Today (13 May) the number of ICU-patients again has dropped to 432 (15 treated in in German hospitals). This gives us some threshold in case infections increase again.

On the minus side: We are still losing people each day. We now officially have registered more than 43.200 corona patients, a number of 5.562 people perished. The tally however is incomplete, more people have become infected with the virus and more died from its effects than has been registered. It gradually becomes clear that this is a substantial group and the official numbers are only the tip of the iceberg. Based on a study of the average death rates over the past few years in Holland, the real number of Covid-deaths might be many thousands more (estimates vary from 1.400 to 5.000). Especially hard hit are the nursing homes. While the focus lay on the capacity in the hospitals, the coronavirus in nursing homes was spreading all around like wildfire.

General practitioners have registered at least 764 people who died of a suspected corona infection without being admitted to hospital. This would bring deaths in Holland at least at 6.326 (= 367,79 per million). These GP-ciphers however are incomplete since the registration started weeks after the virus hit and thus do not cover the entire period.

This is not a normal flu: there is concern about the long-term effects of corona. Several Dutch corona patients show severe lung and also brain damage. Additional research must show whether this damage is chronic.


For comparison the (official) mortality rate caused by Covid per million of inhabitants:
(based on the deaths registered by the John Hopkins University)

Belgium (11,4 mln) with 8.843 deaths, it is 775,70
Spain (46,7 mln), with 26.920 deaths, is 576,45
Italy (60,4 mln) with 30.911 deaths, the number is 511,77
UK (66,5 mln) this number, with 32.769 deaths, is 492,77
France (67,0 mln) with 26.994 deaths, is 402,90
Sweden (10,2 mln) with 3.313 deaths is 324,80
Holland (17,2 mln) with 5.510 deaths, it now is 320,35
USA (327,2 mln) with 82.387 deaths, it's 251,79
Canada (37,1 mln) with 5.300 deaths is 142,86
Germany (82,9 mln) with 7.756 deaths is 93,56

Population numbers (courtesy SteveDee) Coronavirus deaths per million by country 2020 | Statista

Contrary to what the press wants us to believe, Belgium is relatively by far the hardest hit country in Europe and maybe world-wide (a death rate of 775+ per million inhabitants - this I guess, is caused by a better registration of deaths in this country and makes them much more reliable than the figures of other countries). Spain and Italy follow at a distance, though the loud whining of the latter countries would make us believe its the other way around. All countries in Europe maintain lock downs and without exception are experiencing serious adverse economic consequences.
It seems that Germany, where the virus spread at the same time as in Holland, is coping well ... what is their secret? (28.000 ICU's and they also do a lot of testing, contact tracing and isolating).
The death rates in Sweden, the only country in Europe that adopted the strategy of not locking down, are steadily on the rise and significantly higher than the surrounding Scandinavian countries (Denmark has a rate of 91,21, Norway 41,24 and Finland 48,37) - the Swedish death rate is level with Holland. But group immunity in Sweden has attained a high level and is now 40% (Holland has 5 - 6 % and still has to open up). Makes me wonder: Is the Swedish strategy the better in the long term?
The deaths in the USA are rising and on first sight look staggering, but because the country has a large population, the death rate still is relatively low. If the USA would have been hit as hard as Belgium, deaths would number 253.800+. The USA is a large country with wide areas with a low population density where the virus does not spread easily. My best guess is that the USA will approach the numbers somewhere in between France and the UK, provided they act wisely and not open up to soon. This still will mean a considerable death toll of between 130.000 - 160.000.