The CV19 thread

The Coronapocalyps in Holland:

On Feb 27th, 2020, the first case of Covid19 was discovered in southern Holland. The virus was already in the Netherlands on February 15, twelve days before the first patient was officially tested positive. For several weeks it spread undisturbed, with the massively celebrated carnival in the Catholic south of our country acting as a catalyst. The Netherlands below the rivers became a true hotbed for the virus. In late afternoon of Sunday 15 March Holland went into pause: bars and restaurants were closed, social distancing, no public gatherings of over 100 people. At the time we had 1.413 registered patients and 24 deaths. The actual number of infections was higher, because not everyone in Holland is tested, only those who are "at risk of a serious disease course" - the real number of infections on 16 March was estimated at about 6000 people. Re the deaths - the real number of deceased patients in Holland, is probably higher, since only the deaths of confirmed Covid patients are registered.

Since then I've been editing on a daily basis how the situation in Holland rapidly changes. These are 'only' official figures. The actual number of infections and deaths is most likely much higher:

17 March - 19 new death cases, that makes 43; total confirmed patients 1705 (an increase of 292)
18 March - 15 new deaths, total now risen to 58; total confirmed patients 2051 (an increase of 346)
19 March - 18 new deaths, total now 76; total confirmed patients 2465 (an increase of 414)
20 March - 30 people died over the last 24 hours; total now 106; total confirmed patients 2994 (an increase of 529)
21 March - 30 deaths in the last 24 hours, death toll now 136; total confirmed patients 3631 (an increase of 637)
22 March - 43 deaths, death toll now 179; total confirmed patients 4216 (an increase of 585)
23 March - 34 people died over the last 24 hours; total number 213; total confirmed patients 4.749 (an increase of 533)

As of March 23rd further restrictions became effective - (an almost complete) lock down: schools were closed, no public gathering of more than three people, work at home, social distancing (these measures are effective until April 28th)

24 March - 63 deaths; total number now 276; total confirmed patients 5560 (increase of 811)
25 March - 80 new deaths, total now 356; total confirmed patients 6412 (an increase of 852)
26 March - 78 deaths, total now 434; total confirmed patients 7431 (an increase of 1019)
27 March - 112 deaths, total now 546; total confirmed patients 8603 (an increase of 1172)
28 March - 93 new deaths, total now 639; total confirmed patient 9762 (an increase of 1159).
29 March - 132 new deaths, the death toll now is 771; total confirmed patients 10.866 (an increase of 1104)
30 March - 93 new deaths, total now is 864; total confirmed patients 11.750 (an increase of 884)
31 March - 175 new deaths, total now 1.039; total confirmed patients 12.595 (an increase of 845)
1 April - 134 new deaths, total now 1.173; total confirmed patients 13.614 (an increase of 1.019)
2 April - 166 new deaths, the death toll now is 1.339; total confirmed patients 14.697 (an increase of 1.083).
3 April - 148 new deaths, total number now 1.487; total confirmed patients 15.723 (an increase of 1.026)
4 April - 164 new deaths, total now 1.651; total confirmed patients 16.627 (an increase of 902)
5 April - 115 new deaths, total now 1.766; total confirmed patients 17.851 (an increase of 1.224)
6 April - 101 new deaths, total now 1.867; total confirmed patients 18.803 (an increase of 952)
7 April - 234 new deaths, total now 2.101; total confirmed patients 19.580 (an increase of 777)
8 April - 147 new deaths, which brings the total number to 2.248; number of confirmed patients is 20.549 (an increase of 969).
9 April - 148 new deaths, total now is 2.396; number of confirmed patients 21.762 (an increase of 1.213)
10 April - 115 new deaths, total now is 2.511; number of confirmed patients 23.097 (an increase of 1.335)
11 April - 132 new deaths, total now 2.643; number of confirmed patients is 24.413 (an increase of 1.316).
12 April - 94 new deaths, total now 2.737; number of confirmed patients is 25.587 (an increase of 1.174).
13 April - 86 new deaths, total now 2.823; number of confirmed patients is 26.551 (an increase of 964).
14 April - 122 new deaths, total now 2.945; number of confirmed patients is 27.419 (an increase of 868).
15 April - 189 new deaths, total now 3.134; number of confirmed cases 28.153 (an increase of 739)
16 April - 181 new deaths, total now 3.315; number of confirmed cases 29.214 (an increase of 1.061)
17 April - 144 new deaths, total now 3.459; number of confirmed cases 30.449 (an increase of 1.235)
18 April - 142 deaths, total now 3.601; number of confirmed cases 31.589 (an increase of 1.140)
19 April - 83 deaths, total now 3.684; number of confirmed cases 32.655 (an increase of 1.066)
20 April - 67 deaths, total now 3.751; number of confirmed cases 33.405 (an increase of 750)
21 April - 165 deaths, total now 3.916; number of confirmed cases 34.134 (an increase of 729)
22 April - 138 deaths, total now 4.054; number of confirmed cases 34.842 (an increase of 708)
23 April - 123 deaths, total now 4.177; number of confirmed cases 35.729 (an increase of 887)
24 April - 112 deaths, total now 4.289; number of confirmed cases 36.535 (an increase of 806)
25 April - 120 deaths, total now 4.409; number of confirmed cases 37.190 (an increase of 655)
26 April - 66 deaths, total now 4.475; number of confirmed cases 37.845 (an increase of 655)
27 April - 43 deaths, total now 4.518 number of confirmed cases 38.245 (an increase of 400)
28 April - 48 deaths, total now 4.566 number of confirmed cases 38.416 (an increase of 171)
29 April - 145 deaths, total now 4.711 number of confirmed cases 38.802 (an increase of 386)
30 April - 84 deaths, total now 4.795 number of confirmed cases 39.316 (an increase of 514)
1 May - 98 new deaths, total now 4.893; number of confirmed cases 39.791 (an increase of 475)
2 May - 94 new deaths, total now 4.987; number of confirmed cases 40.236 (an increase of 445)
3 May - 69 new deaths, total now 5.056; number of confirmed cases 40.571 (an increase of 335)
4 May - 26 new deaths, total now 5.082; number of confirmed cases 40.770 (an increase of 199)
5 May - 86 new deaths, total now 5.168; number of confirmed cases 41.087 (an increase of 317)
6 May - 36 new deaths, total now 5.204; number of confirmed cases 41.319 (an increase of 232)
7 May - 84 new deaths, total now 5.288; number of confirmed cases 41.774 (an increase of 455)
8 May - 63 new deaths, total now 5.359; number of confirmed cases 42.093 (an increase of 319)

Edit today:
9 May - 71 new deaths, total now 5.422; number of confirmed cases 42.382 (an increase of 289)

Holland now at the end of the eighth week of a lock down, which started 15 March and will last until 20 May. Over the next few months we will unlock step-by-step. Starting with schools and day-care from 11 May onwards, but only for the youngest kids, the 4 - 12 years old and only in small groups. For large public events, such as concerts and sport events (football), there is a 'no-go' until 1 September - I'm afraid this also might affect the Airborne celebrations at Arnhem next September. If the sick rates rise again the measures will be immediately reversed.

The good news: The virus wears out - as do we - but the decline seems to slacken. The daily deaths and hospitalizations are not decreasing as fast as a week ago. The reproduction factor - the number of people infected by an infected person - remains low at 0.8. Today's hospital admissions were 58. Yesterday the number was 35, the day before yesterday 39 and the days before that resp. 27, 89, 44, 42, 97, 85, 84, 76, 88, 65, 75, 100, 123, 137, 124, 118, 75, 110, 129, 156, 182, 188, 210, 147, 196,189, 225, 237, 308, 292, 260, 253, 336, 502, 625, 447 and 722.

The limited number of available ICU-beds is no longer an issue, with the lower influx rates we will cope. Today (9 May) the number of ICU-patients again has dropped to 531. Of these 16 are treated in German hospitals. This country generously has promised reception of IC-patients in case of emergency. The experts have cautiously announced that, if the present decline continues, the ICU situation will reach acceptable levels in two weeks. The number of ICU's indicates the bandwidth within which further relaxation of the lock down can follow.

The fight against Covid is entering a new phase, now that virologists and doctors have put out the first fire. Where the health crisis first dominated, there is increasing scope for other aspects and issues are becoming more political. But it is not the time to become overconfident. When we relax too quickly the virus will peek again and with IC's and hospitals still half filled with patients of the first Covid wave it will be hard to handle a new influx. The daily statistics we see today are the delayed results of our behaviour of three weeks ago, taking into account an incubation time of two weeks and some time before the situation deteriorates at home and hospital admission takes place. It's almost like looking at the stars, what we now see in the sky is light from the past, so are the statistics. The effects of how we act, only will become visible in three weeks. Fighting this virus remains a hell of a job.

On the minus side: We now officially have registered more than 41.700 corona patients, a number of 5.288 people died from the effects of the virus. The tally however is incomplete, more people have become infected with the virus and more died from its effects than has been registered: the 'silent Covid deaths'. It gradually becomes clear that this is a substantial group and the official numbers are only the tip of the iceberg. Based on a study of the average death rates over the past few years in Holland, the real number of Covid-deaths might be many thousands more (estimates vary from 1.400 to 5.000). Especially hard hit are the nursing homes. While the focus lay on the capacity in the hospitals, the coronavirus in nursing homes was rapidly spreading all around.

General practitioners have registered at least 764 people who died of a suspected corona infection without being admitted to hospital. This would bring deaths in Holland at least at 6.186 (= 359,65 per million). These GP-ciphers however are incomplete since the registration started weeks after the virus hit and thus do not cover the entire period.

No clear view of an exit-strategy yet, other than that it will be a long-term issue in which social distancing will be the common thread, as well as intensive testing and isolating as some Asiatic countries have done with success, 'tracing apps' and facemasks ... this will not be over until we have a vaccin ... or have reached 'group immunity'. The latter requires an infection rate of 60 - 70% of the population; we've reached a mere 5% now - still 26 months to go ... hope we have a vaccin before that


For comparison the (official) mortality rate caused by Covid per million of inhabitants:
(based on the deaths registered by the John Hopkins University)

Belgium (11,4 mln) with 8.581 deaths, it is 752,72
Spain (46,7 mln), with 26.478 deaths, is 566,98
Italy (60,4 mln) with 30.395 deaths, the number is 503,23
UK (66,5 mln) this number, with 31.662 deaths, is 476,12
France (67,0 mln) with 26.313 deaths, is 392,73
Sweden (10,2 mln) with 3.220 deaths is 315,69
Holland (17,2 mln) with 5.422 deaths, it now is 315,23
USA (327,2 mln) with 78.794 deaths, it's 240,81
Canada (37,1 mln) with 4.823 deaths is 130,00
Germany (82,9 mln) with 7.549 deaths is 91,06

Population numbers adapted (courtesy SteveDee) Coronavirus deaths per million by country 2020 | Statista

Contrary to what the press wants us to believe, Belgium is relatively by far the hardest hit country in Europe (a death rate of 752+ per million inhabitants - this I guess, is caused by a better registration of deaths). Spain and Italy follow at a distance, though the loud whining of the latter countries would make us believe its the other way around. All countries in Europe maintain lock downs and without exception are experiencing serious adverse economic consequences. It seems that Germany, where the virus spread at the same time as in Holland, is coping well ... what is their secret? (28.000 ICU's and they also do a lot of testing, contact tracing and isolating). The death rates in Sweden, the only country in Europe that adopted the strategy of not locking down, are on steadily on the rise and significantly higher than the surrounding Scandinavian countries (Denmark has a rate of 74,82 and Finland 36,05). The deaths in the USA now rise quickly. The death toll on first sight looks high, but because the country has a large population, the death rate still is relatively low. If the USA would have been hit as hard as Belgium, deaths would number 246.200+. But the USA is a large country with wide areas with a low population density where the virus does not spread easily. My best guess is that the USA will approach the numbers somewhere in between France and the UK, provided they act wisely and not open up to soon. This still will mean a considerable death toll of 140.000+.

 

I met 4jonboy and her hubby at Ludlow and enjoyed the day and had a nice lunch. Followed by taking Photos of Royal Artillery Headstones. Hard to believe it was 6 years ago.

 

My mother-in-law died some years ago but my wife regularly visits her mother's best school-friend, Pat, born in 1925, in her care home. Pat got the virus, and has recovered, I am pleased to say.

I don't understand economics and printing money, and It's not really politics, just lawyers, but I am amused that the German Federal Constitutional Court has " granted several constitutional complaints directed against the Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) of the European Central Bank (ECB). "

Bundesverfassungsgericht - Press - ECB decisions on the Public Sector Purchase Programme exceed EU competences

Finally, another castle spotted to-day in Saffron Walden. The hole was made by an enthusiastic motorist showing off in December 2018 but the powers that be like the new "entrance."

Many more people about today. I am keeping locked away apart from slow bike rides.

 

We have a different sort of hill from High Wood's hills but Essex isn't that flat on a 20 inch wheel bike with three hub gears.

 

Not many hills over here ... but last weekend I went to the arboretum at Wageningen (Holland) which is well known for its collection of rhododendrons (litterally: Flower Trees).

 

Whoever built that castle had no understanding of defence in depth. Fancy building it so close to a roundabout on a main road.

 

I once lived for about two years in the Langdon Hills near Basildon, which were quite hilly, I also seem to remember that Hadleigh Castle was quite a spectacular ruin. There is a lot of history in Essex.

 

If I never hear slow piano music again it will be too soon!

Don't know about the rest of the world but here every commercial, no matter the product, starts with three or four notes and ends with, "We're in this together."

 

That Crazy Horse coming over the ridge?

 

A last few pictures of some of my favourite places as the Tourist Board aren't paying me and the cheque from English Heritage has bounced.

Hergest Ridge in Herefordshire.

 

Gladestry from Upper Hergest.

 

They ought to have a Goons marathon instead.

 

Whatever shortages the current emergency creates it seems that there will always an ample sufficiency of idiots.
Coronavirus: US jobless rate now 14.7%, highest in decades - BBC News
Ignore the link title this is about old Harry's game.

 

Must go find Mr Oldfield's record. Showing my age?

 

At least CV-19 provided a whole lot of precious spare time:
Since two years we have an ongoing project along the museum staff – search for some vanished ancient fortifications from around 1000 AD here in our region.One of the most demanding but also exciting kind of research
The knowledge of the exact places is long gone. There are just legends about Castles, Kings, Knights, battles and the like
First I used numerous digitalized documents and books from 18th to 19th century for helpful hints.
Next I performed „aerial reconnaisance“ with Google earth and plane-table maps in 1:25000 of 1920 as overlays
After countless hours I was able locating two most promising spots

This was the easy one: The former home of a robber baron, destroyed in the early middle ages. The stones were used for a representative castle in the city of Luechow during the 14th century. The only location information was the name of a tiny village nearby and it was „a guns shot range distant to the North at the Millers Brook in a swampy, wooded area"...at least two hundred fifty years ago


This (probable) one was a frontier fortress of assumedly slawic origin
Location description in an ancient book from 1792: "one an a half hour walk in north-easterly direction (from the city of Luechow) in a Forrest near the small village of Pannecke."
Well, the forrest isn´t anymore but with patience, enthusiasm and some luck I could locate the specific contours of a ring wall:


Next I´ll grab metal detector and spade (I´m licensed + authorized ) for some closer examination on site....keep fingers crossed
Oh yeah, I really love my job!!

 

There is no truth in the rumour that this tree was the origin of the Conservative Party logo.