The CV19 thread

Never knew, thanks!

 

I think that it was a subtle hint to avoid politics like the plague, or the kung flu In keeping things in contemporary context. It’s already been shut down once.

 

That sounds like a challenge!

 

Man--or should I say "Dude?"--these days politics sure can be a plague. I'll take kitties any day.

 

Dude, the Dudemeister, El Dudereno, or something along those lines will suffice. And we have enough pestilences to work with now. There’s no need for the flying monkeys from The Wizard of Oz (the mods) to swoop down on us for venturing off into the fringe areas here.

 

Is this a good idea to help out the farmers - Belgians urged to eat more chips in lockdown, how about having brocolli burgers with it, mind you think of all that mayonnaise being consumed - mmmmmmmm

TD

 

Me neither. This morning I have had great help here from Adam finding a book I really want to read and now discovered the Cat Thread. What a day

 

Canuck must be very happy now that the cat thread has resurfaced. He really loves his cats.

 

Our governor extended the stay at home order until May 15. Limited business openings are allowed, but no bars (y'all call them pubs) will be allowed to open. Can't say that I didn't expect that. New Orleans and neighboring Jefferson Parish will probably not be expected to open until sometime in June at the earliest. They were pretty hard hit with the Kung Flu down there. Here in East Baton Rouge Parish is better, but not enough to open all the way up just yet. The curve is flattening out a lot, so no need to rush into things. We'll get there soon.

 

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

 

Bastard!

Up until now I have been a model of tolerance and restraint.

How to cook a cat with your coffee maker | Coffee Machine Cuisine

 

That’s because he realised injecting them with bleach would only cure them of coronavirus. It was an epiphany, or a Domestos experience, if you will

 

The Coronapocalyps in Holland:

On Feb 27th, 2020, the first case of Covid19 was discovered in southern Holland. The virus was already in the Netherlands on February 15, twelve days before the first patient was officially tested positive. For several weeks it spread undisturbed, with the massively celebrated carnival in the Catholic south of our country acting as a catalyst. The Netherlands below the rivers became a true hotbed for the virus. In late afternoon of Sunday 15 March Holland went into pause: bars and restaurants were closed, social distancing, no public gatherings of over 100 people. At the time we had 1.413 registered patients and 24 deaths. The actual number of infections was higher, because not everyone in Holland is tested, only those who are "at risk of a serious disease course" - the real number of infections on 16 March was estimated at about 6000 people. Re the deaths - the real number of deceased patients in Holland, is probably higher, since only the deaths of confirmed Covid patients are registered.

Since then I've been editing on a daily basis how the situation in Holland rapidly changes. These are 'only' official figures. The actual number of infections and deaths is most likely much higher:

17 March - 19 new death cases, that makes 43; total confirmed patients 1705 (an increase of 292)
18 March - 15 new deaths, total now risen to 58; total confirmed patients 2051 (an increase of 346)
19 March - 18 new deaths, total now 76; total confirmed patients 2465 (an increase of 414)
20 March - 30 people died over the last 24 hours; total now 106; total confirmed patients 2994 (an increase of 529)
21 March - 30 deaths in the last 24 hours, death toll now 136; total confirmed patients 3631 (an increase of 637)
22 March - 43 deaths, death toll now 179; total confirmed patients 4216 (an increase of 585)
23 March - 34 people died over the last 24 hours; total number 213; total confirmed patients 4.749 (an increase of 533)

As of March 23rd further restrictions became effective - (an almost complete) lock down: schools were closed, no public gathering of more than three people, work at home, social distancing (these measures are effective until April 28th)

24 March - 63 deaths; total number now 276; total confirmed patients 5560 (increase of 811)
25 March - 80 new deaths, total now 356; total confirmed patients 6412 (an increase of 852)
26 March - 78 deaths, total now 434; total confirmed patients 7431 (an increase of 1019)
27 March - 112 deaths, total now 546; total confirmed patients 8603 (an increase of 1172)
28 March - 93 new deaths, total now 639; total confirmed patient 9762 (an increase of 1159).
29 March - 132 new deaths, the death toll now is 771; total confirmed patients 10.866 (an increase of 1104)
30 March - 93 new deaths, total now is 864; total confirmed patients 11.750 (an increase of 884)
31 March - 175 new deaths, total now 1.039; total confirmed patients 12.595 (an increase of 845)
1 April - 134 new deaths, total now 1.173; total confirmed patients 13.614 (an increase of 1.019)
2 April - 166 new deaths, the death toll now is 1.339; total confirmed patients 14.697 (an increase of 1.083).
3 April - 148 new deaths, total number now 1.487; total confirmed patients 15.723 (an increase of 1.026)
4 April - 164 new deaths, total now 1.651; total confirmed patients 16.627 (an increase of 902)
5 April - 115 new deaths, total now 1.766; total confirmed patients 17.851 (an increase of 1.224)
6 April - 101 new deaths, total now 1.867; total confirmed patients 18.803 (an increase of 952)
7 April - 234 new deaths, total now 2.101; total confirmed patients 19.580 (an increase of 777)
8 April - 147 new deaths, which brings the total number to 2.248; number of confirmed patients is 20.549 (an increase of 969).
9 April - 148 new deaths, total now is 2.396; number of confirmed patients 21.762 (an increase of 1.213)
10 April - 115 new deaths, total now is 2.511; number of confirmed patients 23.097 (an increase of 1.335)
11 April - 132 new deaths, total now 2.643; number of confirmed patients is 24.413 (an increase of 1.316).
12 April - 94 new deaths, total now 2.737; number of confirmed patients is 25.587 (an increase of 1.174).
13 April - 86 new deaths, total now 2.823; number of confirmed patients is 26.551 (an increase of 964).
14 April - 122 new deaths, total now 2.945; number of confirmed patients is 27.419 (an increase of 868).
15 April - 189 new deaths, total now 3.134; number of confirmed cases 28.153 (an increase of 739)
16 April - 181 new deaths, total now 3.315; number of confirmed cases 29.214 (an increase of 1.061)
17 April - 144 new deaths, total now 3.459; number of confirmed cases 30.449 (an increase of 1.235)
18 April - 142 deaths, total now 3.601; number of confirmed cases 31.589 (an increase of 1.140)
19 April - 83 deaths, total now 3.684; number of confirmed cases 32.655 (an increase of 1.066)
20 April - 67 deaths, total now 3.751; number of confirmed cases 33.405 (an increase of 750)
21 April - 165 deaths, total now 3.916; number of confirmed cases 34.134 (an increase of 729)
22 April - 138 deaths, total now 4.054; number of confirmed cases 34.842 (an increase of 708)
23 April - 123 deaths, total now 4.177; number of confirmed cases 35.729 (an increase of 887)
24 April - 112 deaths, total now 4.289; number of confirmed cases 36.535 (an increase of 806)
25 April - 120 deaths, total now 4.409; number of confirmed cases 37.190 (an increase of 655)
26 April - 66 deaths, total now 4.475; number of confirmed cases 37.845 (an increase of 655)
27 April - 43 deaths, total now 4.518 number of confirmed cases 38.245 (an increase of 400)
28 April - 48 deaths, total now 4.566 number of confirmed cases 38.416 (an increase of 171)
29 April - 145 deaths, total now 4.711 number of confirmed cases 38.802 (an increase of 386)

Edit today:
30 April - 84 deaths, total now 4.795 number of confirmed cases 39.316 (an increase of 514)

Holland now is in the seventh week of the lock down, which started 15 March. The restrictions will continue until 20 May. For large public events, such as concerts and sport events (football), there is a 'no-go' until 1 September - this also might jeopardize the Airborne celebrations at Arnhem next September. Schools and day-care will UNpause from 11 May on, but only for the youngest kids, the 4 - 12 years old and only in small groups.

The good news: The virus wears out - as do we - though the downward trend seems to slow down. The daily deaths and hospitalizations are not decreasing as fast as a week ago. The reproduction factor - the number of people infected by an infected person - remains low at 0.8. Today's hospital admissions were 84. Yesterday the number was 76, the day before yesterday 88 and the days before that resp. 65, 75, 100, 123, 137, 124, 118, 75, 110, 129, 156, 182, 188, 210, 147, 196,189, 225, 237, 308, 292, 260, 253, 336, 502, 625, 447 and 722.

The limited number of available ICU-beds is no longer an issue, with the lower influx rates we will cope. But we have to be careful as we cannot handle another peek as last March. Today (30 April) the number of ICU-patients again has dropped to 783. Of these 29 are treated in German hospitals. This country generously has promised reception of 107 patients in case of emergency. The experts have cautiously announced that, if the present decline continues, the ICU situation will reach acceptable levels (700 Corona ICU's) in two weeks. The number of ICU's indicates the bandwidth within which further relaxation of the lock down can follow.

We have to be careful. When we relax too quickly the virus will peek again. The daily statistics we see today are the results of our behaviour of three weeks ago, taking into account an incubation time of two weeks and some time before the situation deteriorates at home and hospital admission takes place. It's almost the same as looking at the stars, what we see in the sky is light from the past. So, it is not the time to become overconfident. The effects of how we behave now, only will become visible in three weeks.

On the minus side: We now officially have registered more than 39.300 corona patients, a number of 4.795 people died from the effects of the virus. In reality more people have become infected with the virus and died from its effects than has been measured: the 'silent Covid deaths'. It gradually becomes clear that this is a substantial group and the official numbers are only the tip of the iceberg - based on a study of the average death rates over the past few years in Holland, the real number of Covid-deaths might be many thousands more (estimates vary and run up to 5.000). General practitioners have registered at least 764 people who died of a suspected corona infection without being admitted to hospital. This would bring deaths in Holland at least at 5.559 (= 325,09 per million). These GP-ciphers however are incomplete since the registration started weeks after the virus hit and thus do not cover the entire period.

The virus goes into a kind of 'summer-hibernation'. This may give us a chance for some quieter months. But we need the coming months to prepare for the new wave that may come in the fall. The Spanish Flu of 1918 struck Holland in three waves, lasted two years and did cost 40.000 lives in Holland. The second wave was worse than the first.

No clear view of an exit-strategy yet, other than that it will be a long-term issue in which social distancing will be the common thread, just as 'tracking apps' (?) and facemasks ... this will not be over until we have a vaccin.

For comparison the mortality rate caused by Covid per million of inhabitants:

Belgium (11,4 mln) with 7.703 deaths, it is 675,70
Spain (46,7 mln), with 24.543 deaths, is 525,55
Italy (60,4 mln) with 27.967 deaths, the number is 463,03
UK (66,5 mln) this number, with 26.842 deaths, is 403,64
France (67,0 mln) with 24.376 deaths, is 363,82
Holland (17,2 mln) with 4.711 deaths, it now is 273,89
Sweden (10,2 mln) with 2.586 deaths is 253,53
USA (327,2 mln) with 63.019 deaths, it's 192,60
Canada (37,1 mln) with 3.310 deaths is 89,22
Germany (82,9 mln) with 6.623 deaths is 79,89

Population numbers adapted (courtesy SteveDee) Coronavirus deaths per million by country 2020 | Statista

Relatively Belgium is by far the hardest hit country in Europe (a staggering number of 675 - or do the Belgians have a better-balanced registration), followed at a distance by Spain and then Italy. All countries in Europe maintain a lock down and without exception are experiencing serious adverse economic consequences as a result. It seems that Germany, where the virus spread at the same time as in Holland, is coping well ... what is their secret? They have 28.000 ICU's and also do a lot of testing, contact tracking and isolating. Still Germany also has a long way to go. The German Robert Koch Institute announced the disturbing news that - probably as an effect of some relaxation - the reproduction factor of the virus, has risen to 1,0 - it stood at 0,7. The death rates in Sweden, the only country in Europe that adopted a unique approach by not locking down, are rapidly on the rise and significantly higher than the surrounding Scandinavian countries (Denmark has a rate of 74,82 and Finland 36,05). Some grumbling can be heard now from the Swedes

 

In South Africa

DAY 32 OF LEVEL 5 LOCKDOWN (ALSO EXACTLY 8 WEEKS SINCE OUR FIRST CONFIRMED CASE)

BY THE NUMBERS

• 4,996 confirmed infections since the virus first arrived in SA.

• 93 deaths - three more than yesterday, all three in the Western Cape.

• Number of patients tested now stands at 185,497.

• 6 million people have been screened countrywide.

• 2,073 patients are listed as recovered.

The Western Cape is now the epicentre and cluster outbreaks link back to Supermarkets and Factories.

 

Nice one.

 

Over 80% of our deaths have occurred in senior or long term care homes. The curve has flattened but we rarely see the ratio of new cases to actual tests conducted. It has to be seen as a positive that the flat line on cases is generally weighed against a rapidly growing testing regime.
Mind you, the public sentiment is growing increasingly resentful and the pressure to re-open is expanding quickly. I believe our government will be forced to ease up substantially by the end of May.

 

Please tell me this is a spoof...The article, I mean ! If it's true then he is a jester of the finest type...

Walker in plague doctor outfit draws attention of police

I'm a bit concerned that the half-wit interviewed called herself 'Jade Gozbel' which sounds like pig-medieval English for 'Green Slime-ball' I reckon she's in league with the plague doctor.