The CV19 thread

Here in Washington Sate, recreational fishing is closed under the stay at home rules. The ban keeps people from Seattle from spreading the virus to other parts of the state. Last month the state fisheries put 2500 trout in the 100 acre lake near my house. When fishing opens it's gonna be nutz out on the water the first week.

 

All countries are different but the overarching logic is that it's all about the risk of ending up in Hospital and thereby increasing the risk of catching the virus or passing it on to others (some supercarriers are asymptomatic) and also overloading the local Health Services. There's also the issue that there needs to be rules and a 'one size fits all' means that there are gainers and losers.

Edit: by gainer I mean someone who is safeguarded who otherwise would not be
By loser I mean someone who is at only Nominal risk but nevertheless has to comply with 'the rules' for the sake of simplicity and the safety of others.

 

Some Canadians bring it to a whole new level.

 

All public boat launches, provincial parks, national parks and crown land are off limits. Smaller northern communities are even asking cottagers to stay away. The rationale for that is apparently they don't want police, fire or medical staff having to deal with people who get in trouble while off the grid.
However, it is sunny and 15C today so thousands of people with cabin fever are out and about.

 

Not some, most!

 

The Coronapocalyps in Holland:

On Feb 27th, 2020, the first case of Covid19 was discovered in southern Holland. The virus was already in the Netherlands on February 15, twelve days before the first patient was officially tested positive. For several weeks it spread undisturbed, with the massively celebrated carnival in the Catholic south of our country acting as a catalyst. The Netherlands below the rivers became a true hotbed for the virus. In late afternoon of Sunday 15 March Holland went into pause: bars and restaurants were closed, social distancing, no public gatherings of over 100 people. At the time we had 1.413 registered patients and 24 deaths. The actual number of infections was higher, because not everyone in Holland is tested, only those who are "at risk of a serious disease course" - the real number of infections on 16 March was estimated at about 6000 people. Re the deaths - the real number of deceased patients in Holland, is probably higher, since only the deaths of confirmed Covid patients are registered.

Since then I've been editing on a daily basis how the situation in Holland rapidly changes. These are 'only' official figures. The actual number of infections and deaths is most likely much higher:

17 March - 19 new death cases, that makes 43; total confirmed patients 1705 (an increase of 292)
18 March - 15 new deaths, total now risen to 58; total confirmed patients 2051 (an increase of 346)
19 March - 18 new deaths, total now 76; total confirmed patients 2465 (an increase of 414)
20 March - 30 people died over the last 24 hours; total now 106; total confirmed patients 2994 (an increase of 529)
21 March - 30 deaths in the last 24 hours, death toll now 136; total confirmed patients 3631 (an increase of 637)
22 March - 43 deaths, death toll now 179; total confirmed patients 4216 (an increase of 585)
23 March - 34 people died over the last 24 hours; total number 213; total confirmed patients 4.749 (an increase of 533)

As of March 23rd further restrictions became effective - (an almost complete) lock down: schools were closed, no public gathering of more than three people, work at home, social distancing (these measures are effective until April 28th)

24 March - 63 deaths; total number now 276; total confirmed patients 5560 (increase of 811)
25 March - 80 new deaths, total now 356; total confirmed patients 6412 (an increase of 852)
26 March - 78 deaths, total now 434; total confirmed patients 7431 (an increase of 1019)
27 March - 112 deaths, total now 546; total confirmed patients 8603 (an increase of 1172)
28 March - 93 new deaths, total now 639; total confirmed patient 9762 (an increase of 1159).
29 March - 132 new deaths, the death toll now is 771; total confirmed patients 10.866 (an increase of 1104)
30 March - 93 new deaths, total now is 864; total confirmed patients 11.750 (an increase of 884)
31 March - 175 new deaths, total now 1.039; total confirmed patients 12.595 (an increase of 845)
1 April - 134 new deaths, total now 1.173; total confirmed patients 13.614 (an increase of 1.019)
2 April - 166 new deaths, the death toll now is 1.339; total confirmed patients 14.697 (an increase of 1.083).
3 April - 148 new deaths, total number now 1.487; total confirmed patients 15.723 (an increase of 1.026)
4 April - 164 new deaths, total now 1.651; total confirmed patients 16.627 (an increase of 902)
5 April - 115 new deaths, total now 1.766; total confirmed patients 17.851 (an increase of 1.224)
6 April - 101 new deaths, total now 1.867; total confirmed patients 18.803 (an increase of 952)
7 April - 234 new deaths, total now 2.101; total confirmed patients 19.580 (an increase of 777)
8 April - 147 new deaths, which brings the total number to 2.248; number of confirmed patients is 20.549 (an increase of 969).
9 April - 148 new deaths, total now is 2.396; number of confirmed patients 21.762 (an increase of 1.213)
10 April - 115 new deaths, total now is 2.511; number of confirmed patients 23.097 (an increase of 1.335)
11 April - 132 new deaths, total now 2.643; number of confirmed patients is 24.413 (an increase of 1.316).
12 April - 94 new deaths, total now 2.737; number of confirmed patients is 25.587 (an increase of 1.174).
13 April - 86 new deaths, total now 2.823; number of confirmed patients is 26.551 (an increase of 964).
14 April - 122 new deaths, total now 2.945; number of confirmed patients is 27.419 (an increase of 868).
15 April - 189 new deaths, total now 3.134; number of confirmed cases 28.153 (an increase of 739)
16 April - 181 new deaths, total now 3.315; number of confirmed cases 29.214 (an increase of 1.061)
17 April - 144 new deaths, total now 3.459; number of confirmed cases 30.449 (an increase of 1.235)
18 April - 142 deaths, total now 3.601; number of confirmed cases 31.589 (an increase of 1.140)
19 April - 83 deaths, total now 3.684; number of confirmed cases 32.655 (an increase of 1.066)
20 April - 67 deaths, total now 3.751; number of confirmed cases 33.405 (an increase of 750)
21 April - 165 deaths, total now 3.916; number of confirmed cases 34.134 (an increase of 729)
22 April - 138 deaths, total now 4.054; number of confirmed cases 34.842 (an increase of 708)
23 April - 123 deaths, total now 4.177; number of confirmed cases 35.729 (an increase of 887)
24 April - 112 deaths, total now 4.289; number of confirmed cases 36.535 (an increase of 806)
25 April - 120 deaths, total now 4.409; number of confirmed cases 37.190 (an increase of 655)
26 April - 66 deaths, total now 4.475; number of confirmed cases 37.845 (an increase of 655)
27 April - 43 deaths, total now 4.518 number of confirmed cases 38.245 (an increase of 400)

Edit today:
28 April - 48 deaths, total now 4.566 number of confirmed cases 38.416 (an increase of 171)

Holland now is the seventh week of the lock down, which started 15 March. The restrictions will continue until 20 May. For large public events, such as concerts, soccer and other sport events, there is a 'no-go' until 1 September - this also might jeopardize the Airborne celebrations at Arnhem next September. Schools and day-care will UNpause from 11 May on, but only for the youngest kids, the 4 - 12 years old and only in small groups.

On the plus side: Though we lose people every day, it looks like the virus wears out - as do we! Overall, the steady decline of hospitalizations continues, which is positive. The reproduction factor - the number of people infected by an infected person - remains low at 0.8. Today's hospital admissions was slightly higher with 88. Yesterday the number was 65, the day before yesterday 75 and the days before that resp. 100, 123, 137, 124, 118, 75, 110, 129, 156, 182, 188, 210, 147, 196,189, 225, 237, 308, 292, 260, 253, 336, 502, 625, 447 and 722.

The limited number of available ICU-beds is no longer an issue, with the lower influx rates we will cope. But we have to be careful as we cannot handle another peek as last March. There are now 2400 ICU's available. The absolute maximum. Of these a maximum of about 1900 ICU's is available for COVID patients; the rest is taken by regular patients. For a week or two the question was whether we would make it. The number of ICU patients rose to about 1.400 before ICU-numbers started to decline. Today (25 April) the number of ICU-patients again has fallen with 25 beds to 905 - a drop for a fourth day on row. Of these ICU-patients 41 are treated in German hospitals. This country generously has promised reception of 107 patients in case of emergency. The experts have cautiously announced that, if the present decline continues, the ICU situation will reach acceptable levels (about 500 Corona ICU's) in two weeks. The number of ICU's indicates the bandwidth within which further relaxation of the lock down can follow. But we have to be careful. When we act too quickly the virus will peek again, with Italian conditions as a result, which nobody wants

On the minus side: we now officially have registered more than 38.000 corona patients, more than 4.500 people died from the effects of the virus (a mortality rate of 11,81%). In reality more people have become infected with the virus and died from its effects than has been measured: the 'silent Covid deaths'. It gradually becomes clear that this is a substantial group and the official numbers are only the tip of the iceberg - based on a study of the average death rates over the past few years in Holland, the real number of death by Covid some say might be 2.000 higher. General practitioners have registered at least 764 people who died of a suspected corona infection without being hospitalized or admitted. This would bring deaths in Holland at least at 5.239 (= 304,59 per million). These GP-ciphers however are incomplete since the registration started several weeks after the virus hit and thus do not cover not the entire Covid-period.

It's no time to be lulled to sleep. The experts foresaw that the epidemic would decrease as it gets warmer. Earlier they predicted that it would be much less in May. The virus goes into a kind of 'summer-hibernation'. This may give us a chance for some quieter months. But we need the coming months to prepare for the new wave that may come in the fall. The Spanish Flu of 1918 struck Holland in three waves, lasted two years and did cost 40.000 lives in Holland. The second wave was worse than the first.

No clear view of an exit-strategy yet, other than that it will be a long-term issue in which social distancing will be the common thread, just as 'tracking apps' (?) and facemasks ... this will not be over until we have a vaccin.

For comparison the mortality rate caused by Covid per million of inhabitants:
Belgium (11,4 mln) with 7.331 deaths, it is 643,07
Spain (46,7 mln), with 23.822 deaths, is 510,11
Italy (60,4 mln) with 26.977 deaths, the number is 446,64
France (67,0 mln) with 23.293 deaths, is 347,66
UK (66,5 mln) this number, with 21.157 deaths, is 318,15
Holland (17,2 mln) with 4.566 deaths, it now is 265,47
Sweden (10,2 mln) with 2.274 deaths is 222,94
USA (327,2 mln) with 56.475 deaths, it's 172,60
Canada (37,1 mln) with 2.841 deaths is 76,37
Germany (82,9 mln) with 6.161 deaths is 74,32

Population numbers adapted (courtesy SteveDee) Coronavirus deaths per million by country 2020 | Statista

Relatively Belgium is by far the hardest hit country in Europe (a staggering number of 632) ... followed at a distance by Spain and then Italy (although, due to the loud whining for money by the latter two, you would almost think it is the other way around). All countries in Europe maintain a lock down and without exception are experiencing serious adverse economic consequences as a result. For our boisterous Uncle across the pond: this virus is lethal when not taken seriously. If the virus hits the USA as severely as it struck Belgium, the mortality in the US would be massive; deaths in the 210.400+ (with ease) .... no UV beams, bleach, disinfectant or other means a quack can think of can cope with that. Start listen to the doctors and blessed are the US governors. It seems that Germany, where the virus spread at the same time as in Holland, is coping well ... what is their secret? They have 28.000 ICU's and also do a lot of testing, contact tracking and isolating. Still Germany also has a long way to go. The German Robert Koch Institute announced the disturbing news that the reproduction factor of the virus, despite all efforts, has risen to 1,0 - it stood on 0,9. The death rates in Sweden, the only country in Europe that adopted a unique approach by not locking down, are rapidly on the rise and significantly higher than the surrounding Scandinavian countries (Denmark has a rate of 67,93 and Finland 13,16). Some grumbling can be heard now from the Swedes.

 

IMO and from seeing what has happened in the ski tourism industry and small ski towns. Resort towns with small medical facilities are put at risk by visitors importing the virus. When the skiing stopped in Europe the wealthy flew to Boise ID. and drove to the Yellowstone club. A week later several employees of the resort were sick. Virus spread from the Alps to the Rockies in 48 hours.

 

If you dined on red beans and rice, you were there on a Monday. That’s the Monday meal in Nola. It’s good eatin’, that’s for sure.

Never heard of anyone referring it to an African city before. Many more say the it has a European look or it shares an international vibe found in New York and San Francisco.

One thing about it there, one never had to go far to find something good to eat or drink.

 

Apparently moves are afoot to imbleach President Trump

 

A book from my small Dutch Collection. The title is rather appropriate at these stay at home times. Our Dutch cousins will know about this book.

 

Apparently there are plans afoot to imbleach Donald Trump

 

I cant believe what Donald Trump has been saying with-in the last week re his press conferences. Its a rather strange, sarcastic/ sadistic thing to mention disinfectant. Its quite sick that this chap has mentioned this. Donald, get a grip!

Just a thought, I'm just wondering if China have made a vaccine for Corvid-19? If they have, then it will be interesting to see if they will provide it (free to the world?) Any-body got any news re that chap who is in charge of North Korea? The Countries around the world will maintain trade with China in years to-come.

Stating the obvious: We will all have to go back to work at some-point or another. I do feel sorry for the people in the UK & the world who have had important operations cancelled. Think about those that need transplants, those that need radio & chemotherapy. What about those that need chronotherapy ? The press are getting on my nerves at the moment. In years to come, the UK government will have a enquiry & It will take years to complete. Some of them chaps, & ladies will have jobs for years to-come. Lessons etc.

The teachers are complaining about getting the kids back to school. What about the rest of us? They will have to get together & think about it. I still find it rather strange that UK government is (only giving) the deaths that are in hospitals, & not in care homes?

Stu.

 

You mean


This may be deleted by Admin as 'political' - who knows its fake news

TD

 

Hmmmm - not me mate

TD

 

I'm guessing you have a shed load of coin in your bank account, or you are working from home? Richard, behave mate. Lets get real.

I suggest that you should read the all of my post 1053. Chronotherapy is needed for myself & my old-man which is normally on a three month period. If the Admin decide to delete your post 1054 then i don't have a say in it? Was it wise to post it? I'm sure you will have a reason for which is (well over my head!)

I do hope that you get back to work at some-point in time? Not sure what your line of work is? Don't sit on your back-side for long.

Hmmmm-mate. Richard, get a life. No hard feelings my mate.

Regards,
Stu.

 

I retired in 2003, no I dont have a shed load of coin in my bank, as with other members who have tried guessing about me they generally get it wrong but then how much does anyone need, actually need as opposed to want.

I am also sure that there are many other members on here who will not have to go back to work

If admin decide that the post was too political then as with other posts they need to enforce the rules they have set for the site - simples

No hard feelings

TD

 

Does this mean it is now acceptable to post cat videos? I say those deserve their own thread.