The CV19 thread

Discussion in 'The Lounge Bar' started by Dave55, Feb 28, 2020.

  1. KevinC

    KevinC Slightly wierd

    :D:D:D
    I assume they are allowed to travel, cos we can't
     
  2. DianeE

    DianeE Member

    Surprising how long a trip to the Pharmacy can take. :)

    I have a view of a carpark which is nearly always empty. It will be interesting to see if there is more activity from tomorrow:hug:
     
  3. KevinC

    KevinC Slightly wierd

    I suggest you remove your group hug. Goes against social distancing :D
     
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  4. Too late! The colours of the members of the hug group indicate they have already caught the bug :eek:
     
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  5. von Poop

    von Poop Adaministrator Admin

    New Olympic logo:

    Annotation 2020-03-26 143512.jpg
     
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  6. Rich Payne

    Rich Payne Rivet Counter Patron 1940 Obsessive

    I dream of a world where 'sport' no longer exists...I suppose that if amateurs wish to do it in the privacy of their own homes, O.K....but a year with no reports of over-paid prima donnas on television or newspaper...Wonderful.
     
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  7. HAARA

    HAARA Well-Known Member

    We spend a lot of time on here looking at our fathers' and grandfathers', and indeed mothers' and grandmothers', bravery in the last and first world war. These guys, and girls, were very brave and risked their lives, indeed many lost them, in the fight to give us the freedoms we enjoy today, with all being awarded medals for their service and bravery. We are in some respects at war again with Covid-19, an alien virion invader that is taking lives. Our defence forces are fighting very hard for us, witnessing harrowing scenes of death on the front line, and risking their, and in some cases losing, lives. These guys and girls in the front line, the NHS, need recognition for their unbelievable services. Let's give them medals at the next Queen's awards - never mind the celebs, footballers, and politicians, please let's recognise the real people who are looking after and protecting us.

    NHS-medal-2020.png
     
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  8. bamboo43

    bamboo43 Very Senior Member

    I’m sure this will come in time in the same way they recognised those who served overseas against Ebola.
     
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  9. Mr Jinks

    Mr Jinks Bit of a Cad

    Maths has never been my strong point but I must be missing something here ?

    Today we are told there are 11,600 cases of coronavirus confirmed does this figure take in those who have had the virus and recovered or just those suffering from Covid 19 today 26 /03 /2020 ?

    In the UK there are, depending on which source you use between 1,257 and 1,600 NHS hospitals ? Using the lowest figure less than ten cases per hospital ?

    Those suffering from the disease are told to self isolate and not to attend a Hospital or Doctors surgery at what point do they gain admittance ?

    Chemists and Doctors (fact) are limiting those with repeat perscriptions to 28 days medication due to the outbreak ,why when medicines we are told are no good in the fight against corona virus Covid 19 ?

    Cancer patients are having their operations and chemotherapy sessions cancelled,routine appointments cancelled, yet the confirmed numbers compared against population and those tested are few ?

    (I am not detracting from those dealing with the virus nor do I mean any disrespect to those families who have lost loved ones)

    Ten cases ? per hospital and the NHS cannot cope? Someones maths are worse than mine !

    Release the figures of current cases not since the pandemic began . Any Math genius in the know care to explain ? :unsure:


    Kyle
     
  10. SDP

    SDP Incurable Cometoholic

    When bugs (including viruses) grow there are three growth phases - the initial 'lag' phase where growth is slow and taking off, followed by the 'logarithmic' growth phase which is the rapid growth phase, and finally the 'stationary' phase where the infection has run out of targets and where further growth is slow.

    In basic terms, in the UK at the moment, the number of infections (those who have been diagnosed with the virus since the start of the epidemic/pandemic irrespective of whether they are current cases or with an 'outcome') are increasing logarithmically (i.e. By a factor of ten) about every 10 days (this can be confirmed on the Worldometer web site and selecting UK data). This means that if there are currently 10000 cases to date, in 10 days time there will be 100000, 10 days after that there will be 1 million, 10 days after that there will be 10 million and 10 days after that there will be 100 million. Quite clearly, the virus will run out of targets well before that as the population of the UK is only 65 million. The thought of 10 million cases within about 30 days is...well.....'thought provoking" (but is what 'logarithmic' growth means) and this is why the Government and other specialists are expecting the 'peak' in the next 3-4 weeks. From this it's easy to realise that, even if the number of cases is much lower (which can only happen if the current rate of growth is slowed and consequently why it's so important to follow guidelines in order to slow that growth) if even just a small percentage of cases needed Intensive Care, that's still a huge number of Ventilators etc required (and why so much effort is being expended building Field Hospitals etc). If we do the same calculation on the basis of your 'only 10 cases per Hospital', it means that (statistically) it will be 100 in 10 days time, 1000 in 20 days time and, heaven forbid, 10000 in 30 days time. Quite a sobering thought and hopefully something we never see in practice. Time will tell.
    Take Care and Keep Safe.
     
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  11. von Poop

    von Poop Adaministrator Admin

    The confirmed infected figure is pretty meaningless, I think.
    Without everyone being tested nobody really knows what the infection rate is. Models appear to be the only way of guessing that at the mo.
    Not every hospital can do intensive care stuff.
    'Exponential' doesn't seem a concept we instinctively grasp.
    Not that anybody is still quite certain just how exponential the graph of doom might go, which is where we sit, waiting for the grown-ups to do clever things.

    Someone made what seemed a good point that deaths aren't being universally marked as 'died with virus' versus 'died of virus'. Implied Germany's figures seemed so low because they're logging 'died of'.
    One medical egghead today saying 2/3 of deaths being people that would have been 'gathered' (as a mate's gloomy Derbyshire mother rather pleasingly refers to it) within the year anyway, just compacted into a few weeks.

    Though, again; not many of us are Epidemiologists, Virologists or Statisticians I'd guess (not included archaic knowledge of 1940s logistics) so we squint and largely do as we're asked for a bit.

    Just deeply weird, isn't it.
    Everything's up in the air & a little disorientating.
    Calm before the storm or narrow miss - christ knows.


    I have irritated my sprogs with the laser tape measure today.
    They're probably gonna kill me long before any virus...
    IMG_20200327_002442513~2_copy_320x523.jpg
     
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  12. timuk

    timuk Well-Known Member

    A very brief answer.
    Most hospitals are incapable of treating infectious diseases. I live in Scotland and a quick look at the Scottish list shows it contains Maternity, Children's, Community, Cottage etc.
    As to the figures. To date only 104,000 have been tested out of a population of 60+ million! No record is being kept of those who probably have COVID19, have self isolated and then recovered. They do not even have to report the fact. The only figures we are given are those confirmed cases and the deaths. Come what may the actual number with COVID 19 is far far higher.

    Tim
     
  13. von Poop

    von Poop Adaministrator Admin

    Wondering about clever buggers building vaccines, I went off at a tangent mooching through the anti-vax pro-disease people.

    'If there was a village idiot competition...' etc.
     
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  14. canuck

    canuck Closed Account

    Thankfully, that crowd has been strangely silent recently. Covid is highly infectious but with relativity low mortality rates. If we had a new virus with smallpox qualities, the anti-vaxxers would disappear quickly.

    Given that he warned us 5 years about this very danger, Bill Gates was an interesting interview today. Very knowledgeable and reasoned. The wild card at this point is the potential for effective therapeutics, as yet undeveloped or tested. He optimistically suggests we could be moving away from isolation by June whereas we had the first Canadian politician estimate that as being July.

    Settle in folks,
     
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2020
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  15. Buteman

    Buteman 336/102 LAA Regiment (7 Lincolns), RA

    I'm just doing a daily exercise by walking and avoiding people. I've been doing that since January, until the Supermarket scrum happened the other week. You guys can add the technical Covid19 stuff and I'm happy to post about the quiet streets.

    Demotion works have started in Gloucester Docks, to remove an unsightly old mechanical grain silo. The demolition crew are in a perfect position to self isolate, whilst they work and no crowds to watch it come down.

    Then (The building to the left) &

    [​IMG]

    Now.

    upload_2020-3-27_9-51-48.jpeg

    Gloucester Quay's, at it's peak.

    [​IMG]

    Now!!!

    upload_2020-3-27_9-46-45.jpeg

    The Gulls have changed their healthier eating habits over the last weeks. Another building site is being dug up and the gulls fight over worms and the like. No begging and loitering around people at the Quays. Magpies are very evident to exploit the quiet space.
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Mar 27, 2020
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  16. Gary Kennedy

    Gary Kennedy Member

    Well my 'mob' has just been sideswiped by covid19. My sister has been waiting on an important, and frankly f***ing urgent operation. We've been in limbo since 9th March. On 24th March she got a date, 31st March, and today, 27th March, she's been told that's cancelled due to covid19 concerns. No alternative date has been mentioned.

    She's still got the diagnosis she was given on 9th March. It's still time sensitive. People are still affected by conditions that aren't covid19, and some people will undoubtedly die as a result of the measures now in place. The wisdom of shutting down a country to treat one illness that the overwhelming majority of people haven't got will come under great scrutiny in the coming months, and years. I hope someone is modelling the numbers of people who've been run over or left abandoned by the response to covid19 as astutely as they are the number of people directly affected by the virus itself.

    Gary
     
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  17. bamboo43

    bamboo43 Very Senior Member

    We are in a similar position Gary. Two in my family have had operations or treatments postponed/cancelled. As you say, some could be lost because of the overwhelming nature of cv.
    I wish your sister well and hope she gets the operation as soon as possible.
     
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  18. stolpi

    stolpi Well-Known Member

    The Coronapocalyps in Holland:

    On Feb 27th, 2020, the first case of Covid19 was discovered in Holland.

    In late afternoon of Sunday 15 March public live in Holland was partly locked down (bars and restaurants closed, social distancing, no public gathering of over 100 people) for the next three weeks (until April 6th). At the time we had 1413 registered patients (the actual number was higher, probably as many as 6000 people were infected) and 24 deaths (numbers as of 16 March).

    Since then I've been editing on a daily basis how the situation in Holland rapidly changes:

    17 March - 19 new death cases, that makes 43; total confirmed patients 1705 (an increase of 292)
    18 March - 15 new deaths, total now risen to 58; total confirmed patients 2051 (an increase of 346)
    19 March - 18 new deaths, total now 76; total confirmed patients 2465 (an increase of 414)
    20 March - 30 people died over the last 24 hours; total now 106; total confirmed patients 2994 (an increase of 529)
    21 March - 30 deaths in the last 24 hours, death toll now 136; total confirmed patients 3631 (an increase of 637)
    22 March - 43 deaths, death toll now 179; total confirmed patients 4216 (an increase of 585)
    23 March - 34 people died over the last 24 hours; total number 213; total confirmed patients 4.749 (an increase of 533)

    As of March 23rd further restrictions became effective - (almost complete) lock down: schools were closed, no public gathering of more than two people, work at home, social distancing (measures are effective until April 6th)

    24 March - 63 deaths; total number now 276; total confirmed patients 5560 (increase of 811)
    25 March - 80 new deaths, total now 356; total confirmed patients 6412 (an increase of 852)
    26 March - 78 deaths, total now 434; total confirmed patients 7431 (an increase of 1019)
    27 March - 112 deaths, total now 546; total confirmed patients 8603 (an increase of 1172)
    28 March - 93 new deaths, total now 639; total confirmed patient 9762 (an increase of 1159).

    Edit today:
    29 March - 132 new deaths, the death toll now is 771; total confirmed patients 10.866 (an increase of 1104)

    ... on the positive side: the increase of new confirmed cases is decreasing for the second day in a row. It looks like the curve is flattening ...

    The number of deaths per million of inhabitants in Holland now is: 45,35 ... for the UK this number, with 1.228 deaths, is: 23,62; in Italy (with 10.779 deaths) the rate is 173,57; for the USA (with 2.191 deaths) it's 6,71


    According to the medics over here we are still at the beginning, they expect the peak to be reached somewhere in the second half of May.
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
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  19. von Poop

    von Poop Adaministrator Admin

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  20. canuck

    canuck Closed Account

    Gary,
    Sorry to hear about your sister. It gets very personal when your family is directly effected by the policies now in place.

    We have had the same debate here. A healthcare system that struggles at the best of times was being put on hold for an indefinite period of time by Covid-19. I'm just not sure that any of the choices available to government are very palatable. Not shutting down the country would mean streaming 14-15% of the population into the healthcare system for acute care which would have the the same effect in terms of limited access for your sister and everyone else.
    Best wishes to you and your family.
     
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