If Operation Barbarossa had been delay by one year?

Discussion in 'The Eastern Front' started by Tacoboy, Feb 4, 2020.

  1. Tacoboy

    Tacoboy New Member

    If Operation Barbarossa had been delay, until let's say March of 1942.
    How many modern tanks (T-34/KV-1) and modern fighter aircraft would the Soviet Union have?
  2. Robert-w

    Robert-w Banned

    Depends on whether Germany had continued to supply the machine tools with which T-34s were built as she had as part of the German USSR secret trade deals made on the back of the Molotov Ribbentrop pact. One could also ask how much oil and food would the USSR have supplied Germany in return? Also would Stalin have ceased making efforts to control Romanian oil and Yugoslavian nickle?
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2020
  3. CL1

    CL1 116th LAA and 92nd (Loyals) LAA,Royal Artillery

    welcome to the forum

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  4. A-58

    A-58 Not so senior Member

    Not an easy scenario, but I'll try to get things started. I'm sure there will be more to follow from the more studious types. Not sure if the delay of a year or so would be much of a difference in the Germans favor. Too many variables as to why Barbarossa would be delayed; a protracted Battle for France, a successful Operation Sea Lion, a bigger investment in North Africa, supporting other Italian reverses, etc. Much of the German tank development was from experience on the Eastern Front, so another scenario would be the Wehrmacht going into Russia with the same hardware they went with in 1941. Of course these different options entail combat losses on a large scale. Of course there is always the "Stalin's missed opportunity" theory that centered on Stalin disregarding the non-aggression pact he had with Hitler and charging west sometime in 1942 or so. And then there's always....

    It probably would be best to post this over on WW2F. Those people over there live for "what-if" scenarios.

    Here's what little I know. The KV-1 was in use since 1939, and used for the duration of the war. The T-34s were in service from 1940. Modifications were made after field use, reports of German successes in France, poor performances in the Winter War, etc. Some time after the T-34s were modified and up gunned, they performed as well as the heavier KV-1s, so new production of the KVs were discontinued. The T-34s were not as costly to construct as the KVs. The KV model was later used for the heavier IS series tanks and for self propelled artillery.

    My knowledge of Soviet aircraft is pathetically limited.
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  5. Owen

    Owen -- --- -.. MOD

    Agreed . ww2f.com is the place for what if...
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  6. Tacoboy

    Tacoboy New Member

    Found a chart which said that in 1941, the Soviet Union produced about 3000 T-34 tanks.
    So with all the factors like having to move T-34 factories beyond the Ural mountains.
    I'm guessing if Nazi germany had invaded the Soviet Union later than June of 1941, let's say around March of 1942, maybe 4-5000 T-34 could have been built, by then, best guess.
    Maybe they would have made 1,000 KV-1, give or take.
  7. Tricky Dicky

    Tricky Dicky Don'tre member

    Well lets guess that everything that went before it was delayed by a year then we would be back where we started again

    Well lets guess that everything that went before it was delayed by a year then we would be back where we started again

    Well lets guess .....................................

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  8. High Wood

    High Wood Well-Known Member

    A more interesting "what If" would be, what would the outcome have been if Operation Babarossa hadn't been delayed for a month?
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  9. CL1

    CL1 116th LAA and 92nd (Loyals) LAA,Royal Artillery

    WHAT IF MY DAD DIED DURING THE WA.....................................
  10. Ramiles

    Ramiles Researching 9th Lancers, 24th L and SRY

    Perhaps if you explained more about why you wanted to know it might help? i.e. is it to test some kind of war game scenario etc. ?

    The problem with a "What if" such as this is that it's rather open ended, and a bit like "how long is a piece of string" - to be honest (when I think about it) it starts to feel like trying to work out ways that the Nazi's "could have won", though if the Russians were getting stronger, with more modern tanks and more modern fighter aircraft why would Germany have waited "another year"... you haven't expanded on the whys of that...

    IWM's - Operation 'Barbarossa' And Germany's Failure In The Soviet Union


    While the Germans underestimated the military potential of their opponents, they also exaggerated the capabilities of their own forces, most significantly the four Panzer Groups. The panzer divisions were the principal weapon of Blitzkrieg and at that time were far superior to the Soviets in training, leadership and tactical ability. But they were relatively weak in numbers and equipment.

    German tank strength had been halved in 1940 so that the number of divisions could be doubled. Over half the tanks committed to 'Barbarossa' were obsolescent light tanks and Czech-built models, rather than the more capable PzKpfw III and IV. And there were virtually no reserves available. Hitler had so far refused to fully mobilise the German economy and so weapons production was inadequate. Even in mid-1941 only 250 new tanks were being built each month, insufficient to properly equip the army on the eve of a major new campaign, or keep up with the inevitable mechanical and combat losses. Hitler even chose to divert some of these to France and other theatres, when the demand was greatest in Russia.

    The vast majority of the 10,000 or so Russian tanks facing the Germans in June 1941 were light BT series tanks or obsolete T-26 models. Huge numbers were destroyed in poorly planned and executed counterattacks. But Soviet tank development and production was already superior to that of the Germans. A new generation of tanks had entered service, namely the T-34 and KV-1. The T-34 in particular was a major leap in tank design and came as a complete shock to the Germans when it was first encountered in July 1941. It had sloping armour - which effectively doubled its strength - and a powerful 76.2mm gun. Its reliable diesel engine gave it a good range and turn of speed, and its wide tracks could cope with mud or snow. Russian industry was already gearing up to turn it out in huge numbers.

    Less than a thousand T-34s were available at the start of 'Barbarossa' and most were squandered in piecemeal actions by half-trained crews. But the Red Army could absorb significant losses of equipment as well as men. The mass mobilisation of Soviet industry had been set in train, which included relocating vital tank, aircraft and munitions factories eastwards to the Urals. This huge logistical undertaking was already bearing fruit. It meant that despite the early defeats, the Soviet Union was far better prepared for a long war than the Germans, whose own production of tanks and other weapons would be feeble by comparison.


    Operation 'Barbarossa' had clearly failed. Despite the serious losses inflicted on the Red Army and extensive territorial gains, the mission to completely destroy Soviet fighting power and force a capitulation was not achieved.

    One of the most important reasons for this was poor strategic planning. The Germans had no satisfactory long-term plan for the invasion. They mistakenly assumed that the campaign would be a short one, and that the Soviets would give in after suffering the shock of massive initial defeats. Hitler had assured the High Command that 'We have only to kick in the front door and the whole rotten edifice will come tumbling down'. But Russia was not France. The shock value of the initial Blitzkrieg was dissipated by the vast distances, logistical difficulties and Soviet troop numbers, all of which caused attritional losses of German forces which could not be sustained."
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  11. SDP

    SDP Incurable Cometoholic

    Depends on how old you are or....errrrr......would have otherwise been if he hadn't which is the same as saying what you are now....or not as the case may be. I hate what-ifs because they never were.....or not? Time for a(nother) beer or three.....
  12. Harry Ree

    Harry Ree Very Senior Member

    Robert sums it up completely in his last paragraph.

    Hitler only planned war for the short term.His damning assessment of the SU and it's military forces enriched his confidence...."kick the door in and the house will come tumbling down" was attributed to his utterances that the overcoming of the SU would be a short campaign.The rolling steppes were completely different to western Europe and the Russians left none of its infrastructure untouched as they ruthlessly applied a burnt earth policy...the Russian rail gauge was an added problem that had to be overcome to meet the requirement for the transport of essential heavy armour.

    There was also another reason why Hitler would never postpone his expansion plans and that was the fear that he might not be able to achieve in his life, what he set out in Mein Kampf.

    Overall he was a man in a hurry when he assumed power on 30 January 1933.
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  13. CL1

    CL1 116th LAA and 92nd (Loyals) LAA,Royal Artillery

    If the asteroid hadn't hit this is what you would look like

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  14. A-58

    A-58 Not so senior Member

    Oh behave....
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  15. canuck

    canuck Closed Account

    If your Aunt had balls she'd be your Uncle.
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  16. Tricky Dicky

    Tricky Dicky Don'tre member

    Ahh canuck I see your relative has joined - Canuck00

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  17. Dave55

    Dave55 Atlanta, USA

    He didn't plan on fighting the UK or America either, did he? Or am I off my meds again?
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  18. canuck

    canuck Closed Account

    There is only one original. The rest are, well..........................Canadian politeness precludes me from going further. :-P
  19. bofors

    bofors Senior Member

    He's flogged my avatar!

    Looks like it has gone now, only joking I have no issue with whoever uses it, it is just to acknowledge my Dad who was in the RA!


    Last edited: Feb 6, 2020
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  20. A-58

    A-58 Not so senior Member

    And you behave too.

    Looks like another fine thread wrecked....
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