History Repeating Itself-the Euro Crisis

Since you brought it up, that'd be me, and I am only commenting because you did and just in case poor Ger gets the blame. I thought it was -11 Steve. It says a lot indeed, I've never bothered with my full quota before, and only handed neg reps out in earnest twice before in my entire time here. A measure of my amazement at your accusations of bullying etc etc - over an open and frank two way exchange. Are you the only one allowed a differing opinion on a thread without that tag? Yet you are the only one to throw out personal insults.

Newish members have been fortunate not to see how some of these threads ended up in the past, hence my 3rd post, intended to inform and help get it back in keeping with the title: not to bully, nor to stop the thread and certainly not aimed on a personal level - Susan is one of a few on my contact list with access to my profile page. I do however believe that the original poster has a responsibility not only to direct the thread, but also to offer a viewpoint of their own along with the invitation to discuss.

For anyone who is not aware of what this forum was like before please read this comment from a long-standing veteran member.
http://www.ww2talk.com/forum/344176-post38.html

There have been people who have left the forum over less; and at least one veteran here if I remember correctly, who thought it best to temporarily depart. As Andy has pointed out, imagine if that one person who holds a piece you've been waiting for, thinks: nah I won't bother joining up here.

We all joined here surely not for the right to post in Barracks, but to discuss, learn, share and cooperate in matters pertaining to WW2, the one thing which we apparently have in common. Whilst I personally don't like discussion of politics here, the moderators have generally given threads and posters the benefit of the doubt. That's not being wishy washy it's treating people like adults. Then, if it goes 'off' ...

But there has been no closing down of this thread, no deleting of posts, no banning of members and yet apparently they are to be compared with murdering bastards.

If you genuinely love helping - as the great majority of us here do - then why call the mods methods into question when they are the reason why the forum is as successful a platform as it is.

Someone must have given me two points for what I have said - result.

Most of what you say here is personal and actually 'bilge'. All I hear is certain peoples opinions on censorship. VP is the only one who's tried to explain it scientifically - thanks VP. There's only been one person petty enough to dedeuct CP points for someone else expressing an opinion and that's you Diane. I didn't name you before because I didn't want to stoop so low, but as we are out in the open now - very petty Diane, very petty indeed. That is what brings this forum into disrepute.

 

Steve Mac,
Sorry mate, I disagree on a couple of levels.
CP points, or Rep points is not why we are here. Whilst I like to get a Rep point every now and then it's not why I am here. I am here to read, learn, contribute where I can and have a bit of fun too on occasion.
Personal attacks do not contribute to the well being of the forum and that is what could bring some dispute to it but thanks to the hard work and dilligence of Mods and Amin that is not going to happen.
Might I suggest a cooling-off period for a few members and let things settle down a bit?
Susan started this thread in the correct 'Barracks' forum with the best of intentions.
Unfortunately a few, let's say hasty, posts have provoked heated debate that is not the norm on this site.
Perhaps it should be for our widely respected Admin to decide what happens to this thread.
I respect his judgement and experience.

Mike

 

LOL........or maybe not

 

Someone must have given me two points for what I have said - result.

Most of what you say here is personal and actually 'bilge'. All I hear is certain peoples opinions on censorship. VP is the only one who's tried to explain it scientifically - thanks VP. There's only been one person petty enough to dedeuct CP points for someone else expressing an opinion and that's you Diane. I didn't name you before because I didn't want to stoop so low, but as we are out in the open now - very petty Diane, very petty indeed. That is what brings this forum into disrepute.
This forum is not in disrepute, Steve, dont know where you get that from. Most of what Diane says here is not bilge, far from it. Her knowledge of the Guards Regiments is second to none and her posting content proves it. Many people have had cause to benefit from her knowledge and the research she posts on this site and its all the richer for it. So you got neg repped, its happened many members here, although many have not reacted the way you have.

 

I respect his judgement and experience.

'night all.

 

And in the nicest possible way, it is you who are wrong.
This sort of thread can bring the reputation of forums down, bring discord among the membership and move a forum more and more towards OT.
It leaves me cold, as I know it does many others.

I'm sorry, that's not a way to have an inclusive forum and it is not for you to make such a statement.

Paul,
With thanks to the mods and the quality of the membership, this forum typically is free from the virulent language and open hostility found in so many places on the web. I've actually enjoyed most of the posts on this thread and learned something about the many views held by members. That is not a perspective I would have derived from the media here in North America. Some of the comments have strayed close to the edge of civility but for the most part there have been some intelligent and interesting positions put forward. Disagreement and debate are the very rights that our veterans fought so hard to preserve and is inevitable in a public forum with such a wide cross section of members. I've come to appreciate that the mods perform a difficult job with good judgement. Opinions and subject matter isn't censored unless the participants give them good reason to close it down.
Good, bad or ugly, the variety gives life and vitality to the forum, even if someone thinks you're dead wrong! IMHO.

 

The official Canadian view (everyone has an opinion!):

Edited excerpt from “Growth in the Age of Deleveraging,” a speech delivered on Monday by Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney in Toronto:

In Europe, a tough combination of necessary fiscal austerity and structural adjustment will mean falling wages, high unemployment and tight credit conditions for firms. Europe is unlikely to return to its pre-crisis level of GDP until a full five years after the start of its last recession.
Austerity is a necessary condition for rebalancing, but it is seldom sufficient. There are really only three options to reduce debt: restructuring, inflation and growth.
Whether we like it or not, debt restructuring may happen. If it is to be done, it is best done quickly. Policy-makers need to be careful about delaying the inevitable and merely funding the private exit. Historically, as an alternative to restructuring, financial repression has been used to achieve negative real interest rates and gradual sovereign deleveraging.

Some have suggested that higher inflation may be a way out from the burden of excessive debt.
This is a siren call. Moving opportunistically to a higher inflation target would risk unmooring inflation expectations and destroying the hard-won gains of price stability. Similarly, strategies such as nominal GDP level targeting would fail unless they are well understood by the public and the central bank is highly credible.
With no easy way out, the basic challenge for central banks is to maintain price stability in order to help sustain nominal aggregate demand during the period of real adjustment.
The most palatable strategy to reduce debt is to increase growth. In today’s reality, the hurdles are significant.
Once leverage is high in one sector or region, it is very hard to reduce it without at least temporarily increasing it elsewhere.
In recent years, large fiscal expansions in the crisis economies have helped to sustain aggregate demand in the face of private deleveraging. In most of Europe today, further stimulus is no longer an option, with the bond markets demanding the contrary.
There are no effective mechanisms that can produce the needed adjustment in the short term. Devaluation is impossible within the single-currency area; fiscal transfers and labour mobility are currently insufficient; and structural reforms will take time.
Actions by central banks, the International Monetary Fund and the European Financial Stability Facility can only create time for adjustment. They are not substitutes for it.
To repay the creditors in the core, the debtors of the periphery must regain competitiveness. This will not be easy. Most members of the euro area cannot depreciate against their major trading partners since they are also part of the euro.
The route to restoring competitiveness is through fiscal and structural reforms. These real adjustments are the responsibility of citizens, firms and governments within the affected countries, not central banks. A sustained process of relative wage adjustment will be necessary, implying large declines in living standards for a period in up to one-third of the euro area.
We welcome the measures announced last week by European ­authorities, which go some way to ­addressing these issues.
With deleveraging economies under pressure, global growth will require global rebalancing. Creditor ­nations, mainly emerging markets that have benefited from the debt-fuelled demand boom in advanced economies, must now pick up the baton.

 

The obsession with Rep points says it all to me.

Ho, hum.

 

The obsession with Rep points says it all to me.
Ho, hum.

There was and is no obsession with Rep points, the comment was only made to prove a point i.e.who was/is being petty. Shame you couldn't have just let matters drop!

 

Papier....Insult all you like its water off a ducks back...Susan was not called a media whore. But you knew that. Just chose to go off your own way. Your no better than that you critisize

And I repeat I do not need my opinion formed by any media whore or whores. Its an urban statement today. It does indeed have a meaning. I'm sure you can figure it out for yourself.

 

I think that just about sums it all up AHD - excellent. Signing-off this thread for good; to go save some kittens!

Best,

Steve.

 

Nice post Canuck, Mr. Carney's speeches are always an informative read.

Having been quietly watching and learning from this thread, I now return to my "following it silently lurker status"

Off to the 1940's I go.

The official Canadian view (everyone has an opinion!):

Edited excerpt from “Growth in the Age of Deleveraging,” a speech delivered on Monday by Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney in Toronto:

In Europe, a tough combination of necessary fiscal austerity and structural adjustment will mean falling wages, high unemployment and tight credit conditions for firms. Europe is unlikely to return to its pre-crisis level of GDP until a full five years after the start of its last recession.
Austerity is a necessary condition for rebalancing, but it is seldom sufficient. There are really only three options to reduce debt: restructuring, inflation and growth.
Whether we like it or not, debt restructuring may happen. If it is to be done, it is best done quickly. Policy-makers need to be careful about delaying the inevitable and merely funding the private exit. Historically, as an alternative to restructuring, financial repression has been used to achieve negative real interest rates and gradual sovereign deleveraging.

Some have suggested that higher inflation may be a way out from the burden of excessive debt.
This is a siren call. Moving opportunistically to a higher inflation target would risk unmooring inflation expectations and destroying the hard-won gains of price stability. Similarly, strategies such as nominal GDP level targeting would fail unless they are well understood by the public and the central bank is highly credible.
With no easy way out, the basic challenge for central banks is to maintain price stability in order to help sustain nominal aggregate demand during the period of real adjustment.
The most palatable strategy to reduce debt is to increase growth. In today’s reality, the hurdles are significant.
Once leverage is high in one sector or region, it is very hard to reduce it without at least temporarily increasing it elsewhere.
In recent years, large fiscal expansions in the crisis economies have helped to sustain aggregate demand in the face of private deleveraging. In most of Europe today, further stimulus is no longer an option, with the bond markets demanding the contrary.
There are no effective mechanisms that can produce the needed adjustment in the short term. Devaluation is impossible within the single-currency area; fiscal transfers and labour mobility are currently insufficient; and structural reforms will take time.
Actions by central banks, the International Monetary Fund and the European Financial Stability Facility can only create time for adjustment. They are not substitutes for it.
To repay the creditors in the core, the debtors of the periphery must regain competitiveness. This will not be easy. Most members of the euro area cannot depreciate against their major trading partners since they are also part of the euro.
The route to restoring competitiveness is through fiscal and structural reforms. These real adjustments are the responsibility of citizens, firms and governments within the affected countries, not central banks. A sustained process of relative wage adjustment will be necessary, implying large declines in living standards for a period in up to one-third of the euro area.
We welcome the measures announced last week by European Xauthorities, which go some way to Xaddressing these issues.
With deleveraging economies under pressure, global growth will require global rebalancing. Creditor Xnations, mainly emerging markets that have benefited from the debt-fuelled demand boom in advanced economies, must now pick up the baton.

 

Arguements thread

Still there mate, still pretty empty.
(i even quietly threw a thread or two back out of it once people had lost interest, but don't tell anybody.)


no its not

 

Papier....Insult all you like its water off a ducks back...Susan was not called a media whore. But you knew that. Just chose to go off your own way. Your no better than that you critisize

And I repeat I do not need my opinion formed by any media whore or whores. Its an urban statement today. It does indeed have a meaning. I'm sure you can figure it out for yourself.

Thank you for coming back to me. If you felt insulted then I apologize.

The language is constantly evolving but the phrase you use is a dangerous one, because it is relatively new and uses two old words. You should look at the rhetoric you were using. You were not referring to an individual but to the source of your views. I used mimicry and sarcasm to try and point this out to you.I was looking for the implication. If I offended anyone else, by saying that all were wonderful, then I apologize. That is the danger of the unnecessary statement.

I want to go back to World War 2.

After the attack by the submarine my father was aboard, in the Aegean, on or about the 1st/2nd October 1944 a German destroyer made a signal which was picked up by allied eavesdroppers. The Germans claimed to have sunk a submarine. The decrypt is available at Kew.

This was not true, as I can testify by my presence here today.

It was also not true that my father's submarine had sunk the vessel that was originally claimed. The claim was made because the crew knew that a certain vessel was part of the convoy. The fact that there were three vessels in the convoy is documented in a different decrypt at Kew. A second submarine sunk a second vessel a few hours later. A dispute arose as to which boat sank which vessel. The war diary of the German Destroyer went missing before she herself was sunk three weeks later.

An argument ensued during and after the war. The eminent historian, a German, may not have seen the decrypts. Other eminent historians followed the German.

Getting to the bottom of things is an interesting pursuit: even the study of rhetoric !

Finally, the Potsdam Declaration was made in July 1945, not August, as I previously stated. My apologies.