As a rule of thumb, the highest and lowest published loss figures are averaged out and rounded down - then you get at least a rough guesstimate The losses for aircraft and tanks mentioned here would be roundabout 10% of the entire russian arsenal....that I consider VERY optimistic. But even half that figure is a clear indication that things are definitely not running smoothly at all.
Ukrainian official claims are heavily overestimated just like Russian are heavily underestimated. Probably the best place for reference would be this site Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine - Oryx And it is updating regularly. But keep in mind that this site is only listing confirmed losses, either by image or video, so it almost certainly does not represent total losses in equipment. It also not listing equipment which was known to be non operational before war started, like for example number of Ukrainian Su-25 and MiG-29 which were parked on airfields but were not operation for years and which were reported as destroyed. It also does not list any human losses. Considering human losses it is really hard to estimate them, but from what I saw on Twitter they were considerable on both sides. Here and there someone would claim that form close contacts he hear this or that but again it is up to you would/should you trust those sources.
As regards vehicle losses, the Oryx website already quoted gives confirmed figures, updated daily, which might be considered as a minimum. I have also read that the official Russian Tass Agency briefly gave, before withdrawing them shortly thereafter, the following figures for Russian losses in the first three days of the invasion as follows: 27 aircraft 26 helicopters, 146 tanks, 706 light armoured vehicles The figures given by the Ukrainian armed forces therefore do not look too much exaggerated, although human losses my be overall casualties (i.e. including wounded and prisoners) rather than only the killed.
Former Russki Foreign Minister on Putin as a rational/irrational actor: https://twitter.com/andreivkozyrev/status/1500610676926005251?s=20&t=KYB8su2wwukMFEdeBOpZFQ Said to be a leak from an FSB analyst. Many grown-ups seem reasonably convinced of source: https://m.facebook.com/IGORSUSHKORACING/posts/10158862499670662 Lord knows. The propaganda war on both sides is in full swing. Ukrainians have captured the soshul meeja ground in a pretty impressive way. I've now reached the point of readily believing almost nothing, as you do during Internet propaganda conflicts. Uncomfortable at the blocking of RT etc. from day one. Believer in allowing people to draw their own conclusions (eg. Russian Foreign Ministry/embassies output essentially thin stuff/overt Haw-Haw. I want to be able to see it.) Think many of the 'cultural' bans completely ludicrous. (Italian Uni attempting to stop Dostoyevsky course... WTF? ) If 'we' are supposed to represent the civilised, democratic, free-speech view - a great deal of this appears counter-intuitive.
Adding to the confusion, and thanks again to itdan for his help. http://rommelsriposte.com/2022/03/07/observations-on-the-war-in-ukraine-the-south-ii/ TL-DR - it's been a good two days for the Ukrainian armed forces. All the best Andreas
Germany lost probably more than 40,000 dead in invading France and the Low Countries in 1940 and it was considered a crushing victory...Russian regimes have a tradition of not putting a high value on human life so even 11,000 is probably not bothering their leaders at the moment, provided that progress is being made. They'll deny everything, of course because lying is what they do.
C.15k USSR casualties in ten years of Afghanistan. If the figures for this business are even close to the potential 10K, or even 5K, in a week or so, that's... significant. The Times running a story on rousing of bereaved Russian military mothers. Again, some Afghanistan parallels there.
Armoured train arriving: https://twitter.com/aldin_ww/status/1500838282829172742?s=20&t=_ukXyzrT9yNOIVBlHMUp8Q (Clearer images further down the thread.)
What I find quite interesting here is that the vaunted BTGs apparently are pretty shit at their job when they cannot just go and beat up a defenseless opponent. Potemkin's Army? All the best Andreas
Wow. Did they pull that out of a museum? Looks straight out of WWII. Sounds like the Spanish Civil war. 20,000 foreign volunteers in Ukraine ‘to join fight against Russia’
It seems that the C3 architecture of the Russian Army is not in the best condition, to say the least. Also there are many indications that a lot of material is in a desolate state of maintenance .
Extensive pre-invasion analysis of the various options: Russia’s Possible Invasion of Ukraine The heartening part is that rasputitsa should begin soon... Salient
Wasn't sure whether to put this under the 'Knackered' thread or here. Ten minutes of a captured Russian soldier holding forth. https://twitter.com/IndivisibleEug/status/1500709784713977856?s=20&t=HGDIpOwU9RDzaUGj6JP4qg
I suppose then that it may depend on how long the campaign lasts...I worry though that with that many casualties, withdrawing without extreme loss of face will be impossible.
Russia Recruiting Syrians for Urban Combat in Ukraine, U.S. Officials Say WSJ News Exclusive | Russia Recruiting Syrians for Urban Combat in Ukraine, U.S. Officials Say
