Ukraine War. 2022-

RAF E3 Sentry in use

Swedish Air Force in the picture

 

Us.

 

To my way of thinking employing elderly ex-soldiers and obsolete tanks is not the sign of an army at peak prowess.

 

The T-62s brought in (reportedly a little over 300 units) will presumably join the reserve units in the occupied rear.
The more modern T-72 derivatives there would thus become available for the active front-line units.
With an average loss of 5 MBT/day, the RA could thus stay in the game for a month or two longer
Russian war of attrition with the abacus.

And if the T-62s still have to go to the front, they may probably try to turn them into mechanised Ninja Turtles with a whole lot of ERA:

 

Already there and not ninja turtlelised apparently:
https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1529488085729288193?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russia-has-deployed-t-62m-and-t-62mv-tanks-to-the-border-with-ukraine/

 

Well, the backbone of the Ukrainian tank forces until the outbreak of the war was the T-64 with 600 to 700 units.
Now, thanks to Russian and Polish donations in kind, there are additionally a little more than 400 T-72s.
In this respect, from a technical point of view, there is parity with the RA tank force.

Military Watch Magazine

Polish T-72M1 tanks donated to Ukraine are now upgraded with ERA Explosive Reactive Armor | Ukraine - Russia conflict war 2022 | analysis focus army defence military industry army

 

More of a political commentary that tries to cover everything: How long will the war last?

Many outside the Ukraine I fear have missed this:

Ending with in part:

 

Fact or Fiction? The headline: Inside Ukraine’s Daring Helicopter Missions Into Russian-Occupied Mariupol

It opens with:

Link: Inside Ukraine's Daring Helicopter Missions Into Russian-Occupied Mariupol

 

Sometimes you read about the craziest but also marvelous people in Ukraine.
BBC News - Severodonetsk: Ukrainian man cycles from besieged city, dodging Russian shells
Severodonetsk: Ukrainian man cycles from besieged city, dodging Russian shells

 

Donbass: Both RA and UA are struggling. The Russian advance is slow and incremental - but still moving forward with massive artillery support.
The situation for the UA in Severodonetsk is, well, delicate, as the RA has reached the city limits and only one of the three bridges to Slovyansk is still intact.

Kharkiv: The UA is holding the ground. Several small, local battles, front line is partially fluid

Izyium: Numerous small skirmishes. Otherwise business as usual: frontline is stable until it is not

Kherson: The UA has crossed the Inhulets River 80 km southeast of Kherson. This operation has the potential to split the Russian bridgehead between Khersn and Dnipro - if it breaks through. At the moment, however, the UA is busy expanding its incursion area.

And now for the weather report......

 

The popular i.e. television media seem to be ahead of ISW and CT assessments which have been slow to update lately. They are full of doom and gloom talking of the UA withdrawing, even retreating from Severodonetsk to avoid capture and local support for the UA waning. Not unusual as they did the same in WW2. The Dunkirk Veterans Association spoke of a withdrawal not a retreat, particularly those that I was familiar with, serving in 1st Infantry Division, fighting to defend the beaches to their last rounds.
I feel slightly reassured by your synopsis and might sleep better tonight, although mention of the Officers Assembly lobbying the Duma for wider and heavier action keeps me awake for a while. It seems that this might be more than one mans war.

 

A well-filmed and interesting video on Ukrainian SP artillery and the life of their crews is at:

 

An Estonian think tank has decided to publish briefings on the war, given their proximity and knowledge they my be worth reading. Website home page: New Policy Brief Series: Russia’s War in Ukraine - ICDS

The first briefing is explained:

Link to the four page paper: https://icds.ee//wp-content/uploads...r_in_Ukraine_No1_Kalev_Stoicescu_May_2022.pdf

 

I had heard that the Ukrainian Azovstal iron and steel plant at Mariupol was the principal supplier to an Italian manufacturer of pig iron.

In addition I found this to be fresh information, in an online newsletter by Peter Apps, a Reuter journalist:

On the grain and food supply aspects, also by Peter Apps:

 

If like myself you were into engineering you would have been aware of this for many years particularly in Electrical and electronic components. Most of the big brand names have come from China who stack them high and sell them cheap.
It became worse with internet selling, everything at rock bottom prices. Lowest bid wins in tendered work, including Govt. contracts. Musical instruments are the same, originally made in USA, guitars etc then came from Japan, then Korea, now China. Wasn't it Mrs T who designated the UK for tourism and culture, leaving manufacturing to the Far East?

 

Back in the 80's one of the companies that I worked for used to circulate magazines for staff to read. One is seemingly now on line: https://rusi.org/
It makes Interesting reading.

 

Right now it looks like the UA river crossing at river Inhulets is mainly aimed at cutting off the T2207 supply route.
The forces does not seem to be sufficient for a deep advance towards the Dnieper.

One possibility for this operation could be that it is intended to prepare a larger offensive from the Krivyi Rih/Zapo area, because the only supply route left for the RA forces in this area is T0403, which runs parallel to the Dnieper.

Let's wait and see what rabbit the UA pulls out of the hat here

 

Re #1098 the main article header in the new (todays) RUSI has changed.
Their various contributors cover differing aspects.


Watch: Why Europe should not fall for Putin's peace trap Sir Michael Clarke (ex RUSI DG)

Does Ukraine now have better weapons than Russia? General Sir Richard Shirreff (ex Deputy Commander NATO)

Both available on YT / Times Radio which seems to be a very interesting channel for this subject.