The CV19 thread

Discussion in 'The Lounge Bar' started by Dave55, Feb 28, 2020.

  1. von Poop

    von Poop Adaministrator Admin

    Identified you as having a slightly unhealthy obsession with internal combustion.
    Google grasses everyone up, y'know.
     
  2. canuck

    canuck Closed Account

    Agreed, it is complex and many trends are not fully understood but life expectancy is much different now. Poor people in urban settings in the U.S. live longer than poor people in less populated areas and no one knows fully why. It likely strays into sociological and psychological explanations. The overall curve has been trending positive since the Reformation but obviously much more so in the last century (vaccines, healthcare, affluence, new drugs, water quality, etc. etc.). Being in the insurance game I am privy to the actuarial tables supporting life insurance, pensions and annuities. The numbers don't lie. 30 years ago, in Ontario, we had a single teacher collecting a pension beyond age 100. Now there are 113.
     
  3. Trux

    Trux 21 AG

    Interesting side effects of working from home.

    In the outer suburbs of Leeds it is reported that it is virtually impossible to access the internet between 8 and 9 o clock in the morning. Presumably all the home workers logging on.

    Ink cartridges for the most popular home printers are sold out. None of the on line retailers had one for my printer and even the manufacturer could not supply one. I exhausted my last one printing puzzles from the internet.

    Mike
     
  4. Chris C

    Chris C Canadian

    I would say the same of myself. The "black dog" used to visit pretty often, but I'm more or less okay now, despite being even more solitary than normal during these times. I just have the frustrations that everyone else has
     
  5. KevinC

    KevinC Slightly wierd

    i don't understand our government's decisions at the best of times. I'm not allowed to work, not allowed to socialise with friends etc, but now churches are allowed to have 50 people congregate.
    So we are going to do a Dominic Cummings and interpret the rules ourselves.
    we are going to have a braai (BBQ for the uneducated) and make sure someone brings a bible.
    There will be bread and wine for the communion (with some meat attached)
     
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  6. DianeE

    DianeE Member

    Can I come. I can bring some red wine. I have to see if the car still runs!:)
     
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  7. Blutto

    Blutto Banned

    I wish I could rid myself of the Black Dog and without the issues that arise from the medications; in fact even my current dog is black and as you can see, just like me, is another aeroplane spotter!

    P1270076.jpg
     
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  8. KevinC

    KevinC Slightly wierd

    You might get mugged by people who don't have wine. I need to drive to Hermanus tomorrow. I had to get a permit to travel. I battled to get the car started as it had been sitting in the garage for two months I started it one or two times during the lockdown. Looks like it will enjoy its 300 km round trip. My eyes are perfectly good so that won't be an issue.
     
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  9. Robert-w

    Robert-w Banned

    Unless that Red Wine is too potent
     
  10. stolpi

    stolpi Well-Known Member

    The Coronapocalyps in Holland:

    On Feb 27th, 2020, the first case of Covid19 was discovered in southern Holland. It later transpired that the virus was already in the Netherlands on February 15, twelve days before the first patient was officially tested positive. For several weeks it spread undisturbed, with the massively celebrated carnival in the Catholic south of our country acting as a catalyst. The Netherlands below the rivers became a true hotbed for the virus. In late afternoon of Sunday 15 March Holland went into pause: bars and restaurants were closed, social distancing, no public gatherings of over 100 people. At the time we had 1.413 registered patients and 24 deaths. The actual number of infections was higher, because not everyone in Holland is tested, only those who are "at risk of a serious disease course" - the real number of infections on 16 March was estimated at about 6000 people. Re the deaths - the real number of deceased patients in Holland, is probably higher, since only the deaths of confirmed Covid patients are registered.

    Since then I've been editing on a daily basis how the situation in Holland changes. These are 'only' official figures. The actual number of infections and deaths is most likely much higher:

    17 March - 19 new death cases, that makes 43; total confirmed patients 1705 (an increase of 292)
    18 March - 15 new deaths, total now risen to 58; total confirmed patients 2051 (an increase of 346)
    19 March - 18 new deaths, total now 76; total confirmed patients 2465 (an increase of 414)
    20 March - 30 people died over the last 24 hours; total now 106; total confirmed patients 2994 (an increase of 529)
    21 March - 30 deaths in the last 24 hours, death toll now 136; total confirmed patients 3631 (an increase of 637)
    22 March - 43 deaths, death toll now 179; total confirmed patients 4216 (an increase of 585)
    23 March - 34 people died over the last 24 hours; total number 213; total confirmed patients 4.749 (an increase of 533)

    As of March 23rd further restrictions became effective - (an almost complete) lock down: schools were closed, no public gathering of more than three people, work at home, social distancing (these measures are effective until April 28th)

    24 March - 63 deaths; total number now 276; total confirmed patients 5560 (increase of 811)
    25 March - 80 new deaths, total now 356; total confirmed patients 6412 (an increase of 852)
    26 March - 78 deaths, total now 434; total confirmed patients 7431 (an increase of 1019)
    27 March - 112 deaths, total now 546; total confirmed patients 8603 (an increase of 1172)
    28 March - 93 new deaths, total now 639; total confirmed patient 9762 (an increase of 1159).
    29 March - 132 new deaths, the death toll now is 771; total confirmed patients 10.866 (an increase of 1104)
    30 March - 93 new deaths, total now is 864; total confirmed patients 11.750 (an increase of 884)
    31 March - 175 new deaths, total now 1.039; total confirmed patients 12.595 (an increase of 845)
    1 April - 134 new deaths, total now 1.173; total confirmed patients 13.614 (an increase of 1.019)
    2 April - 166 new deaths, the death toll now is 1.339; total confirmed patients 14.697 (an increase of 1.083).
    3 April - 148 new deaths, total number now 1.487; total confirmed patients 15.723 (an increase of 1.026)
    4 April - 164 new deaths, total now 1.651; total confirmed patients 16.627 (an increase of 902)
    5 April - 115 new deaths, total now 1.766; total confirmed patients 17.851 (an increase of 1.224)
    6 April - 101 new deaths, total now 1.867; total confirmed patients 18.803 (an increase of 952)
    7 April - 234 new deaths, total now 2.101; total confirmed patients 19.580 (an increase of 777)
    8 April - 147 new deaths, which brings the total number to 2.248; number of confirmed patients is 20.549 (an increase of 969).
    9 April - 148 new deaths, total now is 2.396; number of confirmed patients 21.762 (an increase of 1.213)
    10 April - 115 new deaths, total now is 2.511; number of confirmed patients 23.097 (an increase of 1.335)
    11 April - 132 new deaths, total now 2.643; number of confirmed patients is 24.413 (an increase of 1.316).
    12 April - 94 new deaths, total now 2.737; number of confirmed patients is 25.587 (an increase of 1.174).
    13 April - 86 new deaths, total now 2.823; number of confirmed patients is 26.551 (an increase of 964).
    14 April - 122 new deaths, total now 2.945; number of confirmed patients is 27.419 (an increase of 868).
    15 April - 189 new deaths, total now 3.134; number of confirmed cases 28.153 (an increase of 739)
    16 April - 181 new deaths, total now 3.315; number of confirmed cases 29.214 (an increase of 1.061)
    17 April - 144 new deaths, total now 3.459; number of confirmed cases 30.449 (an increase of 1.235)
    18 April - 142 deaths, total now 3.601; number of confirmed cases 31.589 (an increase of 1.140)
    19 April - 83 deaths, total now 3.684; number of confirmed cases 32.655 (an increase of 1.066)
    20 April - 67 deaths, total now 3.751; number of confirmed cases 33.405 (an increase of 750)
    21 April - 165 deaths, total now 3.916; number of confirmed cases 34.134 (an increase of 729)
    22 April - 138 deaths, total now 4.054; number of confirmed cases 34.842 (an increase of 708)
    23 April - 123 deaths, total now 4.177; number of confirmed cases 35.729 (an increase of 887)
    24 April - 112 deaths, total now 4.289; number of confirmed cases 36.535 (an increase of 806)
    25 April - 120 deaths, total now 4.409; number of confirmed cases 37.190 (an increase of 655)
    26 April - 66 deaths, total now 4.475; number of confirmed cases 37.845 (an increase of 655)
    27 April - 43 deaths, total now 4.518 number of confirmed cases 38.245 (an increase of 400)
    28 April - 48 deaths, total now 4.566 number of confirmed cases 38.416 (an increase of 171)
    29 April - 145 deaths, total now 4.711 number of confirmed cases 38.802 (an increase of 386)
    30 April - 84 deaths, total now 4.795 number of confirmed cases 39.316 (an increase of 514)
    1 May - 98 new deaths, total now 4.893; number of confirmed cases 39.791 (an increase of 475)
    2 May - 94 new deaths, total now 4.987; number of confirmed cases 40.236 (an increase of 445)
    3 May - 69 new deaths, total now 5.056; number of confirmed cases 40.571 (an increase of 335)
    4 May - 26 new deaths, total now 5.082; number of confirmed cases 40.770 (an increase of 199)
    5 May - 86 new deaths, total now 5.168; number of confirmed cases 41.087 (an increase of 317)
    6 May - 36 new deaths, total now 5.204; number of confirmed cases 41.319 (an increase of 232)
    7 May - 84 new deaths, total now 5.288; number of confirmed cases 41.774 (an increase of 455)
    8 May - 63 new deaths, total now 5.359; number of confirmed cases 42.093 (an increase of 319)
    9 May - 71 new deaths, total now 5.422; number of confirmed cases 42.382 (an increase of 289)
    10 May - 18 new deaths, total now 5.440; number of confirmed cases 42.627 (an increase of 245)

    From 11 May onward schools partly reopened, as are the barber shops(!). We now are allowed to go outside, provided we keep social distance (1,5 meters) and do not crowd (3 = a crowd). Effects of these mitigations will be visible in two to three weeks. From June 1st, if all goes well, further steps will be set in re-opening.

    11 May - 16 new deaths, total now 5.456; number of confirmed cases 42.788 (an increase of 161)
    12 May - 54 new deaths, total now 5.510; number of confirmed cases 42.948 (an increase of 196)
    13 May - 52 new deaths, total now 5.590; number of confirmed cases 43.211 (an increase of 227)
    14 May - 28 new deaths, total now 5.562; number of confirmed cases 43.481 (an increase of 270)
    15 May - 53 new deaths, total now 5.643; number of confirmed cases 43.681 (an increase of 200)
    16 May - 27 new deaths, total now 5.670; number of confirmed cases 43.870 (an increase of 189)
    17 May - 10 new deaths, total now 5.680; number of confirmed cases 43.995 (an increase of 125)
    18 May - 14 new deaths, total now 5.694; number of confirmed cases 44.141 (an increase of 146)
    19 May - 21 new deaths, total now 5.715; number of confirmed cases 44.249 (an increase of 108)
    20 May - 33 new deaths, total now 5.748; number of confirmed cases 44.447 (an increase of 198)
    21 May - 27 new deaths, total now 5.775; number of confirmed cases 44.700 (an increase of 253)
    22 May - 13 new deaths, total now 5.788; number of confirmed cases 44.888 (an increase of 188)
    23 May - 23 new deaths, total now 5.811; number of confirmed cases 45.064 (an increase of 176)
    24 May - 11 new deaths, total now 5.822; number of confirmed cases 45.236 (an increase of 172)
    25 May - 8 new deaths, total now 5.830; number of confirmed cases 45.445 (an increase of 209)
    26 May - 26 new deaths, total now 5.856; number of confirmed cases 45.578 45.768 (an increase of 133)
    27 May - 15 new deaths, total now 5.871; number of confirmed cases 45.768 (an increase of 190)
    28 May - 32 new deaths, total now 5.903; number of confirmed cases 45.950 (an increase of 182)
    29 May - 28 new deaths, total now 5.931; number of confirmed cases 46.126 (an increase of 176)
    30 May - 20 new deaths, total now 5.951; number of confirmed cases 46.257 (an increase of 131)
    31 May - 5 new deaths, total now 5.956; number of confirmed cases 46.442 (an increase of 185)

    Edit today:
    1 June - 6 new deaths, total now 5.962; number of confirmed cases 46.545 (an increase of 103)

    "All Quiet on the COVID Front". Holland now is in the eleventh week of a lock down, which started 15 March and which will last until June 1st. We now are carefully taking the path of normal life again. The fight against Covid is entering a new phase now that virologists and doctors have put out the first fire. Where the health crisis first dominated, there is increasing scope for other aspects and issues are becoming more political.

    Over the next period we will reopen step-by-step. Schools and day-care already started from 11 May onwards, but only for the youngest, the 4 - 12 years olds and only in small groups. On June 1st there will be a next step (a limited re-opening of restaurants, bars and terraces). For large public events, such as concerts and sport events (football), there is a 'no-go' until 1 September - I'm afraid this also might affect the Airborne celebrations at Arnhem next September. We slowly and carefully unlock. It is not the time to become overconfident. The daily statistics we see today are the delayed results of our behaviour of three weeks ago. We'll have to keep an eye on the number of hospitalizations, which will be an indicator of how well the re-opening goes.

    The good news: So far so good. We cautiously started to reopen: schools mid-May, terraces and restaurants from June 1st. Today's hospital admissions were 9. Yesterday the number was
    5, the day before yesterday 8 and the days before that resp. 9, 16, 7, 10, 8, 13, 10, 7, 13, 14, 34, 25, 15, 45, 35, 27, 52, 35, 36, 22, 58, 35, 39, 27, 89, 44, 42, 97, 85, 84, 76, 88, 65, 75, 100, 123, 137, 124, 118, 75, 110, 129, 156, 182, 188, 210, 147, 196,189, 225, 237, 308, 292, 260, 253, 336, 502, 625, 447 and 722.

    The limited number of available ICU-beds is no longer an issue, with the lower influx rates we will cope. Today (31 May) the number of ICU-patients again has dropped to 158. Only one of them is still treated in a German hospital. This gives us some threshold in case infections spike again.

    On the minus side: We are still losing people on a daily basis. We now officially have registered nearly 46.500+ corona patients, of these 11.744 were admitted to hospital and a number of 5.962 people perished. The tally however is incomplete, more people have become infected with the virus and more died from its effects than has been registered. It gradually becomes clear that this is a substantial group and the official numbers are only part of the iceberg. Based on a study of the average death rates over the past few years in Holland, the real number of Covid-deaths might be many thousands more (latest estimate is 3.600). Especially hard hit are the nursing homes. While the focus lay on the capacity in the hospitals, the coronavirus in nursing homes was spreading like wildfire. This would bring deaths in Holland at least at 9.562 (= 555,93 per million).

    This is not a normal flu: Doctors and scientists are beginning to understand the demolition the coronavirus causes to the body, and are perplexed by what they see. It really affect patients from head to toe. "This virus is completely different from what we've seen so far." Perhaps the most important explanation for the severity of the new disease: Covid-19, doctors now say worldwide, is not only a lung disease, but starts with many severely ill patients with blood that clots. Yes, patients who stay in an IC bed for a long time are more likely to have clotting problems, but what doctors see happening in corona patients is much more serious, says radiologist and professor Edwin van Beek, one of the early researchers. In the past few months, with autopsies, he saw alveoli filled with fluid and inflammation, but also clots in the pulmonary veins and pulmonary arteries. Van Beek: it also affects relatively young patients with a stroke or with blood clots in the abdomen, he hears about patients with kidney damage that must be on dialysis, after which the tubes are sometimes clogged with lumps. There are also many cases of emphysema, which means a delayed death since this disease cannot be treated an is mostly progressive.

    Immunity comes painfully slow: Even in Sweden, one of the few countries in Europe that has never introduced a lockdown to stem the corona epidemic, group immunity against the coronavirus is far from in sight. This is evident from the first measurement by the Swedish public health institute. The report reports that in Stockholm now 7.3 percent of the population has antibodies to the virus, elsewhere in Sweden it is around 4 percent - disappointingly far from the level at which group immunity can be expected. That is the condition that so many people have built up immunity against the virus that will self-extinguish the epidemic without measures. According to experts, that level for this virus is reached SARS-CoV-2 from the moment 60 percent of the population has developed immunity.


    For comparison the (official) mortality rate caused by Covid per million of inhabitants:
    (based on the deaths registered by the John Hopkins University)

    Belgium
    (11,4 mln) with 9.486 deaths, it is 832,11
    Spain (46,7 mln), with 27.127 deaths, is 580,88
    UK (66,5 mln) this number, with 38.571 deaths, is 580,02
    Italy (60,4 mln) with 33.475 deaths, the number is 554,22
    Sweden (10,2 mln) with 4.403deaths is 431,67
    France (67,0 mln) with 28.805 deaths, is 429,93
    Holland (17,2 mln) with 5.956 deaths, it now is 346,28
    USA (327,2 mln) with 104.584 deaths, it's 319,63
    Canada (37,1 mln) with 7.396deaths is 199,35
    Germany (82,9 mln) with 8.549 deaths is 103,12

    Population numbers (courtesy SteveDee) Coronavirus deaths per million by country 2020 | Statista. Some countries include suspected Covid deaths that were not tested. The official corona mortality of various countries is therefore less comparable.

    Belgium still is the relatively hardest hit country in Europe and maybe world-wide (a death rate of 830+ per million inhabitants - but Belgium has been very strict with itself. It counts not only deaths after a positive test, but also of persons with symptoms that indicate the virus.). Spain and the UK (which now has by-passed Italy in absolute and relative numbers) follow at a distance. It seems that Germany, where the virus spread at the same time as in Holland, is coping well ... what is their secret? (28.000 ICU's and they also do a lot of testing, contact tracing and isolating).
    The death rates in Sweden, the only country in Europe that adopted the strategy of not locking down, are steadily on the rise and significantly higher than the surrounding Scandinavian countries (Denmark has a rate of 91,21, Norway 41,24 and Finland 48,37) - the Swedish death rate now is higher than France.
    The deaths in the USA are rising and on first sight are schockingly high, but the country has a large population, so the death rate still is relatively low. At the moment Holland for example has a far higher rate. If the USA would have been hit as hard as Belgium, deaths would number 271.000+. The USA is a large country with wide areas with a sparse population density where the virus does not spread easily. My best guess is that the USA will approach the rates in France, which also is alternated by overcrowded cities and a sparsely populated countryside, provided they act wisely and do not open up too soon. This still will mean a considerable death toll of about 140.500+.
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2020
  11. A-58

    A-58 Not so senior Member

  12. KevinC

    KevinC Slightly wierd

    It's worth one eye
     
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  13. Lindele

    Lindele formerly HA96

    The young man is now flying in end July.

    Stefan.
     
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  14. von Poop

    von Poop Adaministrator Admin

    C'mon pubs.
    Hold the financial line.
    We're waiting for you.
    We'll see you right.
    Soon...

    IMG_20150615_200835186_HDR_copy_582x1036.jpg
     
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  15. stolpi

    stolpi Well-Known Member

    Ldpr32l.jpg
     
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  16. Dave55

    Dave55 Atlanta, USA

    upload_2020-5-28_16-32-15.png
     
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  17. canuck

    canuck Closed Account

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  18. TTH

    TTH Senior Member

    All right, I guess we're Mansfielding, but you guys had some pretty close equivalents. As in June Wilkinson of Bournemouth, ex of the Windmill Theatre, who made most of her career on this side and was definitely worth losing both an eye and your mind for. A nice woman and a smart woman, she had a career in journalism after she left modelling. She's still with us and is great with the fans. June Wilkinson British burlesque dancer and pinup model arrives in Hollywood.jpg
     
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  19. TTH

    TTH Senior Member

    Sophia Loren, envious? Hardly. As one critic said of her in her prime, Loren was "ridiculously beautiful."
     
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  20. canuck

    canuck Closed Account

    I'd still go with Mansfield, on a number of counts.
     
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