Ukraine War. 2022-

Good stuff Owen.

All the best

Andreas

 

A May 2023 podcast from the US Army Modern War Institute (@ West Point from memory) between two urban warfare experts, one an artillery officer - who explains:

Link (55mins long): Artillery in the Urban Battles of Ukraine - Modern War Institute and select from the list of podcasts. Not listened to today.

 

ZSU has been massively attacking targets in the strategic rear since today - Seems to be stormy

 

For those interested: Useful interactive map to get an overview of the Russian-Ukrainian war:
DeepStateMAP | Map of the war in Ukraine

 

The prelude to the offensive raises the tact:
The Russian volunteer corps is active again in Belgorod oblast. Very active: several tanks and combat helicopters are involved, artillery duels confirmed.

Meanwhile, in the southeast:
"If it is necessary for the Ukrainian army, we are ready to grant the right to enter our territory to deal with camps, weapons and personnel. This is a gesture of solidarity," - Moldova's President, Maia Sandu said.
EDIT: Comment obviously mistranslated/interpreted

 

Now who would say a thing like this:

From: Prigozhin erupts: Has a Russian succession struggle begun? - Responsible Statecraft

The answer? Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the private Russian militia group “Wagner”.

 

Recent clashes between Russian forces.
The militias reportedly have no more than 100-150 men, but this time apparently some mechanised assets as well
The RuaF is using artillery to contain the incursion, but apparently has a shortage of ground troops

 

A "Polish Volunteer Corps" has gone into battle with the "Russian Volunteer Corps" and the "Legion of Freedom of Russia" in the Belgorod region.
The main activity seems to be on the Vovchansk - Belgorod axis, but battles are reported in several other places, in addition to reported reconnaissance troops at various border locations.
In total, however, not much more than 500 men are said to be involved.
I'm curious to see what other "foreign free fighters" the GRU pulls out of the hat.

On the other side, DoD, FSB and Wagner seem to be passing the buck to each other.
Meanwhile, the artillery of the Russian Army is busy bombarding Russian localities.

Along the southern front line, ZSU is conducting aggressive armed reconnaissance, partly with company-sized mechanised units.
The bombardment of strategic targets behind the Russian front continues unabated.

 

A commentary from Prague:

It opens with:

Link:Why We Have a Stake in This War: An Honest View from Czechia - ICDS

 

An unusually critical article by two US non-official, retired US Army SF officers on leadership (low level battalion), operations and training: What the Ukrainian Armed Forces Need to Do to Win - War on the Rocks

 

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have launched an offensive in some areas,
The epicenter of hostilities remains the Bakhmut direction.
There, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are moving along a fairly wide front.
Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Malyar.

 

Seems like Russians just blow Kakhovka dam.

 

Gives me the vibes of the Dambuster raid.. in the sense of lack of effect.

 

tankengine88,

Not so sure about the 'lack of effect', aside from the imagery and possible uncertainity as to who was responsible there is:

From: Nova Kakhovka dam: everything you need to know about Ukraine’s strategically important reservoir and Kakhovka Reservoir - Wikipedia

If I was living in the Crimea I'd be perplexed that the Russians may have blown up the day that controls much of their water supply; most agriculture etc there needs irrigation. I expect people can live without the dam's water (as they did after the 2014 annexation).

I assume since the hydro plant is on the north side of the river it has been occupied by the Ukraine. Note this:

 

- Dnipro river blocked for crossings. Military effect.
- Widespread economic damage on both banks. Economic effect.
- Environmental damage due to pollution being released. Environmental effect.
- Potential impact on Zapo NPP. I'd rather not think about the effects.

All the best

Andreas

 

Generator room where seems breach originate is on the south side controlled by Russians.

 

Ah, massive understatement on my behalf. I've been in an exam room for most of today and my mind is still half wrapped around exams.
Evidently I am quite wrong.

 

A hydro plant consists of multiple components, including:

- the reservoir
- the dam itself
- sluice gates
- spillways to manage water levels
- turbines
- generators
- control rooms and control systems
- power system transformer link
- power lines
- etc.

Hydroelectric Power: How it Works | U.S. Geological Survey

Given the size of Nova Khakhovka, I would expect that elements of the plants were on both banks, with the dam linking them.

What happened last night is a war crime on a scale not seen in Europe for decades. It is creating a human and ecological desaster, with potentially immense consequences through the impact on Zapo NPP, which depends on the water levels in the Dnipro being regulated by Nova Khakhovka dam.

There can be zero doubt who initiated this breach. It was the Rashists. Whether they were aiming for the scale of damage they caused, or simply so stupid that they didn't care, is the only thing open to question. I hope lots of the Rashist invaders involved in blowing the dam were swept away and killed, if this wasn't planned.

Vatniks will of course blame Ukraine, as they do. Everyone of them who does so supports terrorism and genocide.

Also recommend reading this: Ukraine War, 6 June 2023

Ps. Colleagues of mine were organising a Zoom call this morning. The lady from Ukraine sent her apologies, for not being able to dial in. This was her excuse: "We had to reschedule our work a bit due to night missiles attacks on Kyiv."

That's all.

All the best

Andreas

 

Certainly, the ZSU's attempts to cross the river will be considerably more difficult in the near future.
But downstream the entire first line of defence of the RuaF has been flooded. A good part of the war material stored there has probably been lost.


The washed-out minefields, however, are a cause for concern, because the mines are now being washed into the surrounding area in an chaotic manner.