Ukraine War. 2022-

Admittedly, we still have certain problems with the middle ground between "We lay waste to half of Europe with our tanks" and "Our tanks do no unnecessary damage when stored".

 

Mike Ryan's latest column 'The Great Tank Debate' is a short read and ends with:

From: The Great Tank Debate

Then a long article, from REFL, based on one Russian reservist unit's complaints and a useful, short video on the Ukrainian frontline. See: Russian Soldiers Ask: 'We Have Nothing To Fight With. Why Should We Go Up Against Tanks With Only Machine Guns?'

And now Bulgaria, well not today, but at the outbreak of the war:

Oh yes, who paid for the ammunition and fuel / oil?

Link: Bulgaria to the rescue: How the EU’s poorest country secretly saved Ukraine

 

There was a tongue-in-cheek theory in BAOR in the early 80s that if the forces of the Warsaw Pact invaded they would be so gob-smacked by the opulence of West Germany the advance would have ground to a halt as they emptied the shops. Having seen how Russian forces have behaved in Ukraine I now suspect that there might have been a smidge of truth in the theory.

 

Mmmm fair point, big business the arms trade...

 

I was actually told this as a joke by a Czech academic in Prague when I visited back in the early 1980s! Went something like:
"Why will the Soviet Union never successfully invade Western Europe?"
"Answer: West German Supermarkets".

 

Professor Lawrence Freedman's latest column, quite long this time: Proxies and Puppets

 

The content of the report was formulated by an officer in a short, very concise manner:
"We are used to making gold out of shit. But in the meantime, we're running out of shit..."

 

Circulated on Twitter on 13/1/23 by Franz-Stefan Gady @HoansSolo, from IISS. His tweet ignited a "ding-dong" about the numbers, status and who was not shown, e.g. Netherlands.

There is a long Wiki too and that has a list of users, including the Netherlands: Leopard 2 - Wikipedia

 

Truth beknown everyone is probably in the same boat. No one contemplated a war in Europe.

 

Well Netherlands does not own any Leo 2, 18 tanks they are operating are actually leased from Germany. Also list does not include countries outside Europe, as it is not likely that any of them would send Leo 2 tanks to Ukraine, like Chile or Qatar. Wonder if 316 listed for Turkey accounted for those lost in Syria.

 

These cracks are typical phenomena in coalitions whose members also pursue their own particular interests.
The monolithic bloc, whose members are motivated by an iron will for unconditional cooperation, is something I know only from the former Warsaw Pact - or from fantasy novels.

As far as arms deliveries are concerned, there will also be very different interests at play.
I suspect that most of it will be seen as an investment in the future, whether political or economic.

Given the current state of Ukraine, nothing major can be expected in monetary terms:
Foreign debts have been deferred for the time being, and there is plenty of financial aid to enable Ukraine to meet certain obligations (pensions, etc.).

And the cynic in me claims that - in contrast to Syria for example - there are certainly some advantages to sitting on considerable mineral resources...cough...

 

The decision to supply Leopard 2 tanks to the Ukraine has led to many commentaries, amidst them on 23/1/23 is this Australian professor of military history, which gives an excellent overview IMHO. It starts with:

Link: Why Russia's war in Ukraine today is so different from a year ago

 

Brilliant Ukrainian propaganda and the words: Coming. Soon. Be. Fearful. Enemy.

 

A RUSI expert and ex-diplomat starts with:

Link: https://rusi.org/explore-our-resear...ld-russian-military-collapse-lead-nuclear-war

 

This thread seems to be disappearing down the tubes. Lack of interest?
Just been watching missile strikes on civilian infrastructure. Much like V1 attacks in WW2.
A lesson here for everyone, from whatever side. The whole world in fact.

Anzio April 1944
"We have been milling around in our little playground for so long now and Jerry has dropped so many hundreds of thousands of miscellaneous whiz bangs on it that it has become a sort of miniature model of all the ugly, destructive and brutal things that war can do to a piece of beautiful country.
Somehow one doesn’t think so much of the human side of it".

Beware the Ides of March.

 

Just the usual habituation to even the worst circumstances.

Besides, there's not really much to report at the moment apart from Bakhmut.
Except perhaps that the visually confirmed losses of Russian military equipment are now over 9000.

But you can assume that both will change radically soon:
Currently, the (well-founded) speculation is that Ivan will go all-in before the next Western military aid to the UAF takes full effect.