Ukraine War. 2022-

Discussion in 'Postwar' started by CL1, Feb 26, 2022.

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  1. von Poop

    von Poop Adaministrator Admin

    I hear a tenuous rumour that China might have a fair amount of manufacturing capability. ;)

    Some slightly nervous/cautious spooky acquaintances. Though it was ever thus regarding the balance between secrecy and actual need for use.
    Glad not to be the person feeling that squeaky sensation.

    Yeah, plenty of non-German Leopards out there, long in the frame here, though still some 'licensing issues' with the place of birth.

    Again. Tank nerd very intrigued by modern kit potentially meeting the best mother Russia can directly field. Questions that have long hung in the air but were never really answered in the last 30 years of encounters with second and third party Sov kit.
    You actually wonder who gains more when the dust clears. After-action reports have a quality that can counter the odd loss of technology.
     
  2. von Poop

    von Poop Adaministrator Admin

    And of course the Challenger thing is more about international politics. Rhetorical question.
    Though... £50m quidsworth of MBTs, along with, presumably, ammunition and spares (assume our thin tank fleet is being cannibalised as we conjecture) is also hard to deny as a potential force-multiplier at useful points by spicing up a force of T72 fighting... T72.

    Almost a Firefly or Conqueror sort of thought.
     
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  3. Rich Payne

    Rich Payne Rivet Counter Patron 1940 Obsessive

    It was a genuine question on my part. I don't really follow modern weaponry. I do know though that in terms of copying components, it's a damned sight harder to do it from worn or out-of spec parts than it is from factory drawings...but then the Chinks and the Ivans have probably hacked all the factory drawings anyway...so I suppose it's more in terms of electronics that they could gain by having actual examples.
     
  4. ltdan

    ltdan Nietenzähler

    I wasn't talking about production capacity per se, which Ivan has more than enough of.
    They should still be able to produce megatons of tank hulls and aircraft fuselages without any problems.
    But high-precision parts and mil-spec electronics are now becoming quite scarce because the production machines for them are becoming fewer and fewer: There will be reasons why T-64s are reactivated instead of T-72s.
    And I wouldn't expect anything great from China beyond the Baofeng quality league.
     
  5. Andreas

    Andreas Working on two books

    And it's going to require cold, hard cash, and not of the Rouble variety.

    All the best

    Andreas
     
  6. von Poop

    von Poop Adaministrator Admin

    Almost a shame the 30 AS90s going UK to Ukr. not getting the same coverage as the 'sexier' tanks.
    Standard ammunition (as opposed to CR2's somewhat niche choice*) c.£600m of base machines, incredibly sophisticated. (And some may think a bit long in the tooth, but the Russians have apparently been fielding some very old-school Katyushas, so... y'know.).
    Saw someone saying Warrior might as well go over for its last hurrah. Maybe something in that.

    And China will do what China will do.
    None of their output during this has really been a surprise to anyone.
    Sit. Watch. Mop up changed influences elsewhere. Belt. Road. Trade.

    They're absolutely waiting with the hardest coldest cash for any potentially intriguing shiny captured baubles. :ninja:
    Who'd be a grown-up forced to deal with this mess...


    *
    TD gets it...
    Screenshot 2023-01-16 000243.jpg
    https://twitter.com/thinkdefence/status/1614260524920741889?s=20&t=N6Wo2hyL7VXe64Tqs-VBcQ
     
  7. Andreas

    Andreas Working on two books

    It's a UK-based outfit, so I don't find that a surprising view to be held by them.

    All the best

    Andreas
     
  8. sol

    sol Very Senior Member

    They might eventually but thing is, majority is still in the service covering for new shiny Boxer and Ajax. Seems like they will need to serve well beyond 2025 till their replacements arrive.
     
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  9. von Poop

    von Poop Adaministrator Admin

    It's a he, (& proud self-identifying internet gobshite :army: ) and he's agreeing with what you said earlier about it being a political thing.
    The last line the point, the rest merely countering many detail harumphers about any stuff going to Ukraine. (So many 'I think you'll find' posts about bag charges...)

    Not much shine left on Ajax.
    Still a bit of an if rather than when there. :unsure:
    Deary me. Same old, isn't it.
    Procurement plus ca change.
    I don't blame the 'is this wise?' side for caution about donations. Pretty bare cupboards worldwide. Nobody really knows what might be needed down the road.
     
  10. sol

    sol Very Senior Member

    It is said that deliveries of the Ajax to units will resume during this year as it seems like issues with noise and vibrations are mostly addressed. But there is no chance to meet 2025 delivery deadline and Warriors will have to cover till then.

    First Boxers should be delivered this year, but first battalion with only become operational in 2025. Whole Boxer force delivery date is now moved from 2030 to 2032, so little chance for early retirement of Warrior from there either.

    Currently 4 infantry battalions and 3 recce regiments, plus recce troops in all 3 armoured regiments are using Warriors. This is probably covering for the majority of the fleet. I don't know how many are in storage (if any ?), or does some needed to be scrapped for spare parts to keep those in service operational. But if UK is planning to deliver some Warriors to Ukraine now, those will probably have to come from active fleet which would mean some units will have to use equipment not suited for their role or no equipment at all till replacements arrive. Other option is ti send those which would be retire as new vehicles arrive, but in that case significant numbers would probably not be available before 2024.

    So it is rather sacrifice capability of the British Army or deliver vehicles later, which might be to late. Not an easy choice.
     
  11. von Poop

    von Poop Adaministrator Admin

    The hollowest of hollow laughs here, I'm afraid.

    Just seen a story in the Torygraph that DDUK has failed to file accounts on time.
    No more than the merest raised eyebrow. Standard.

    Ain't that the truth.
    Genuine sympathy for the poor buggers making these calls. Merely a dilettante and half-interested observer, but the wheel seems to always turn in the same old way.
     
  12. davidbfpo

    davidbfpo Patron Patron

    Simple solution from an armchair. Do not send any Warriors, as their age and being a UK-only IFV would complicate the Ukrainian's logistics.

    Instead buy some of the M113s scattered around Europe; the Ukrainians already have some. Even buy some Marder IFV.
     
  13. von Poop

    von Poop Adaministrator Admin

    This armchair's comfy, isn't it.

    Keep reminding myself there's people out there fighting for survival in -10° while I fight only my central heating and fret only about how the sausage stew's coming on.
     
  14. chrisgrove

    chrisgrove Senior Member

    I can understand your concern about complicating Ukrainian logistics (as if they didn't have enough different vehicles already), but to complain about Warrior's age when compared with M113 is hardly logical! And Marder is older too.
    Chris
     
  15. davidbfpo

    davidbfpo Patron Patron

    Behind a £ wall in The Daily Telegraph:
     
  16. sol

    sol Very Senior Member

    What would be good to know is in what state are those retired CR1 tanks. At the same time Jordan is keeping much older M-60s in service so wonder is it just problem with maintaining costs or maybe those tanks are in really bad shape, or is it something else.
     
  17. ltdan

    ltdan Nietenzähler

    Moscow 22 Feb 2022: “We take Kyiv in 3 days“

    Moscow 20 Jan 2023:
    Moscov.jpg
     
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  18. von Poop

    von Poop Adaministrator Admin

    Lots of windows in that building.
    Handy.

    I assume any more recently built Russian government buildings are basically all window, balcony & staircase.
     
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  19. Ramiles

    Ramiles Researching 9th Lancers, 24th L and SRY

    The Real Story - Has Germany been holding back the war effort in Ukraine? - BBC Sounds

    Released On: 20 Jan 2023
    Available for over a year
    Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to one of the biggest shifts ever seen in Germany's post-war foreign policy. Vladimir Putin managed to achieve what NATO allies spent years trying to: a massive increase in Germany's military spending and a commitment to NATO's spending target of 2% of GDP. As the conflict escalated, Germany's longstanding relations with Russia cooled, there was an end to Russian energy imports and Germany began sending some weapons direct to Ukraine. But back home Germans remain deeply divided about investing in their military given the long and painful shadow cast by the World Wars. A strand of pacifism has become deeply woven into German society and there are strong threads running through many of the political parties in power, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz's party, the Social Democratic Party. This week defence ministers meet at the military base in Ramstein in Germany to discuss what they will do next in Ukraine. Chancellor Scholz is under increasing international pressure to give the go-ahead for German-made battle tanks to be sent to Ukraine. So will the German Chancellor do what many of his Western allies want or will he continue to favour diplomacy in an effort to avoid provoking Vladimir Putin further? And, if Europe cannot agree, what does this mean for the future of European security and the EU project as a whole? Photo: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz looks at weapons during a visit to a military base of the German army Bundeswehr in Bergen, Germany, in October 2022. Credit: REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer Producers: Ellen Otzen and Pandita Lorenz
     
  20. Andsco

    Andsco Well-Known Member

    I think what we've fundamentally learnt from this conflict is that Russia is not as strong or as military intelligent as we thought they were and that Ukraine are the opposite. Who like myself thought at the start, that this would been over in a couple of weeks with Moscow in control of Kiev.
    The failure of the RA after Their initial advances has been surprising yet a lot of credit must be given to Ukraine, albeit with the help of western allies they have outfought and outsmarted Russia.
     
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